John Menadue

ISHAAN THAROOR. The lesson of Davos: - China has arrived (Washington Post 25 January 2019).

Can we live in a world where America is still a strong power but doesnt have the kind of primacy it had in the past? asked Mahbubani. Thats a reality an America First administration is staunchly trying to resist. In Davos, though, it is afait accompli.

DAVOS, Switzerland On Wednesday in Davos, there was a telling moment involving a senior Chinese official. At a panel on how global orders fail, Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of the Chinese governments main securities regulator, offered his assessment of the state of politics in the West.

You have to realize that democracy is not working very well, Fang said. You need political reforms in your countries.

He added that he meant this with sincerity.

Fangs remarks drew collegial chuckles from the Davos crowd but left behind a lingering unease. On one hand, its not unusual for an emissary of authoritarian Beijing to deflect criticism by pointing outthe weaknesses of political systems elsewhere. On the other hand, it seemed blindingly obvious that Fang was right.

The political failings of Europe and the United States dominated conversation throughout the week in Davos. Economistsbemoaned the financial uncertaintyprovoked by polarization in Western societies. Corporate leadersscoffed at the fumbling inadequacyof Western political leadership. Activists lamented thelack of imagination and empathyamong Western elites.

We need to breathe fresh life into democracy, Kumi Naidoo, the secretary general of Amnesty International, told Todays WorldView. He decried how illiberal leaders such as President Trump have gained power through divisive campaigning, undermining public institutions along the way.

Set against these profound anxieties, China can look almost serene. In 2017, China stole the show at Davos when President Xi Jinping styled himself asa guardian of the international orderin the face of imminent Trumpist chaos. This year, Vice President Wang Qishan echoed Xis stance.

Many countries are increasingly looking inward when making policies, barriers to international trade and investment are increasing, and unilateralism, protectionism and populism are spreading in the world, Wang said on Wednesday, jabbing at the Trump administration. All these are posing serious challenges to the international order.

Many countries are increasingly looking inward when making policies … and unilateralism, protectionism and populism are spreading in the world, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan said Wednesday in Davos, jabbing at the Trump administration.

Of course, things arent quite as calm as they were two years ago.China is now locked in a protracted trade war with Washington. Beijing has detained several foreign nationals including two Canadians on flimsy grounds. Its ambitious global infrastructure plans have both excited and worried observers, who fret over how a budding authoritarian hegemonmay refashion the worlds politics. If there were once any illusions that Xis China could be a liberal power, there certainly arent any now.

Yet at Davos, China seemed far more an opportunity than a boogeyman. No major conversation on trade, climate change or new technologies seemed worth having without reference to Chinese perspectives or practices. While Chinese companies and business executives were ubiquitous at the forums sessions, talk of Chinas repression not leastBeijings detention of possibly more than a million peoplein the far-western region of Xinjiang or its allegedly unfair trade practices was conspicuously absent.

On Wednesday evening, the local government of the Chinese port city of Dalian hosted a lavish dinner for forum attendees, flying in dumpling chefs from Dalians Shangri-La Hotel while touting the citys cutting-edge broadband connectivity.

This year, China is really the country everyone is talking about, Karin von Hippel, the head of the Royal United Services Institute in London, told Todays WorldView. China is a growing power and is obviously a threat in some ways, but at the same time, its so big and will be so powerful that we cant treat China as an enemy. We all have to figure out ways to work with it.

Thats exactly what Washington is not doing, according to experts at the forum. Kishore Mahbubani, a leading Singaporean academic and former diplomat, argued that Trump has his approach backward. Rather than playing the disruptive actor and unsettling its Asian allies in the process, he said, the United States should have moved to rein in Beijing by bolstering its partnerships throughout the region.

Rationally, what the U.S. should be doing is to strengthen multilateral institutions that will ultimately constrain China, Mahbubani said at a panel.

But multilateralism is hardly Trumps cup of tea. After all, in his first week in office, he hammered the final nail in the coffin of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an Obama-era multilateral trade pact that would have bound the Asia-Pacific region more closely to an American-led status quo.

Instead, he has engaged in a trade war that has rocked markets,put U.S. business interests at a disadvantageoverseas and spooked countries throughout Asia.

We are already seeing the effects of the trade tensions, Heng Swee Keat, Singapores finance minister, said at another panel. Heng warned of the potential havoc that sustained U.S.-China animosities may exact on global supply chains.

The big uncertainty is the U.S.-China trade negotiation, which is not really about trade; its about a new world order, Hendrik du Toit, the chief executive of major asset management firm Investec,told CNBC, forecasting dangerous economic head winds. And if we get a dysfunctional world order having come from a space which was very, very good for business over the last 20, 30 years since communism fell, then there may be some big hits along the way and there may be some big challenges.

The attendees at Davos looked toward the uncertain weeks and months ahead, as U.S. and Chinese officials wrangle over a trade compromise that could calm the markets. But whatever happens in the short term or in the life span of Trumps presidency theres a longer-term reckoning that will have to come when China eventually unseats the United States as the worlds largest economy.

Can we live in a world where America is still a strong power but doesnt have the kind of primacy it had in the past? asked Mahbubani. Thats a reality an America First administration is staunchly trying to resist. In Davos, though, it is afait accompli.

John Menadue

This post kindly provided to us by one of our many occasional contributors.