Australia has avoided joining the Trump administration’s new cold war. But big questions about handling the escalating US-China rivalry remain unanswered.

Marise Payne was right when she said, before heading off for Washington this week, that this years annualAUSMINmeeting was set to bethe most important in years.It turned out to be very important indeed, because it answered one of the most momentous foreign policy questions Australia has faced for generations: Will we follow America’s lead in launching a new cold war against China? But it left some other big questions unanswered.The Trump administration was reportedly keen for the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations to take place face to face despite the pandemic, presumably because it expected the answer to be “yes”. If so, it must be bitterly disappointed, because the response from our Foreign Minister was a polite but very firm “no”.

Her US counterpart, Mike Pompeo, has been calling on countries, including Australia, tofollow Washingtons leadin fundamentally repudiating its current relationship with China. Payne said plainly thatCanberra would not do that.

The relationship we have with China is very important, and we have no intention of injuring it, she said in a joint press conference. She said that the values we share with America are important. But most importantly from our perspective, we make our own decisions, our own judgments in the Australian national interest and about upholding our security, our prosperity, and our values.

“So we deal with China in the same way. We have a strong economic engagement, other engagement, and it works in the interests of both countries.

Paynes forthright refusal to follow Pompeos lead will cause angst in Washington. The US Secretary of State has several times recently signalled that he expected Australias support, and he had reason to think he would get it.

Over the past few months the Morrison government has seemed very willing to say things that injure Australias relationship with China, and eager to align itself more closely with Washingtons hardline cold war rhetoric.

Pompeo had in mind nothing less than the removal of the Chinese Communist Party as the government of China. This is scary stuff.

But last weekPompeo made a major speech in Californiawhich must have sounded alarm bells in Canberra. It called for a new alliance of democracies which would aim not just to curtail Chinas growing influence, but to fundamentally “change China”.

If the free world doesnt fundamentally change the way it deals with China, he said, Communist China will surely change us. It was crystal clear that he had in mind nothing less than the removal of the Chinese Communist Party as the government of China.

Pompeo’s faith-based policy

This is scary stuff. Scarier still, Pompeo blithely assured his audience that this would be easy. He had faith in that, he said, because America had beaten the Soviet Union in the previous Cold War. And most of all, I have faith we can defend freedom because of the sweet appeal of freedom itself.

It seems that Payne is not yet convinced by Pompeos faith-based policy. Nor are other influential voices in Australia. Last week,John Howard weighed into warn that Australia had to live with China as it is, and should take a pragmatic approach to dealing with it. The endgame, he said, is to maintain a good economic relationship with China.

And the economic risks are not the only factors to consider. There are big strategic risks, too. We must wonder whether it is smart to launch a new cold war against an adversary as formidable as China far more formidable in some key ways that the Soviet Union ever was without a much clearer idea of how the struggle can be waged and won. Or indeed whether it can be won at all.

RELATED

Why Australia’s strategic situation is far worse than we think

However, many people including members of the Coalition parties will be disappointed at Paynes refusal to join Washingtons latest “coalition of the willing”. She can expect some pushback from the self-styled “Wolverines” a loose grouping of backbenchers who agitate for a harder line against Beijing.

And, in truth, Paynes clear refusal at least so far to follow where Washington wants to lead still leaves unanswered some very important questions about how the Morrison government plans to manage the escalating rivalry between the two countries in the world that matter most to us.

The government has made it clear that it still sees the US as essential to regional stability and Australias security. Last week Payne and Defence Minister Linda Reynolds wrote that ongoing US engagement is as vital as it is certain.

RELATED

Australia’s move in South China Sea could help tip balance

But how can Australia continue to have confidence in the US when we do not endorse its key policies in Asia? How can we expect Washingtons support when we do not support its objectives? How exactly does the government think our US alliance is going to work over coming years, when our strategic risks are going to grow alarmingly?

Likewise, how does Payne reconcile her commendable commitment to avoid injuring our relationship with China with the careless and even reckless way that Canberra has needlesslyinfuriated Beijing in recent months?

Clearly we face an extremely complex task in balancing the competing imperatives to manage this extraordinarily important relationship. What we need are some clear, consistent and well-articulated principles. What we get instead are vapid assertions from Scott Morrison that we will always uphold our values.

Refusing to join Pompeos new cold war with China is a good start, but it doesnt get us very far. The government still needs to decide, and explain to us, how it plans to manage Australias most serious foreign policy challenge in many decades.