We cannot simply rely on the US to keep Asia “safe” in future. Is our Prime Minister really aware of this?

In his recent Quarterly Essay: Sleepwalk to War: Australias Unthinking Alliance with America, Australian defence strategist, Hugh White argues the urgent need to rethink our view of the world and its future and especially how we deal with China and The United States.

He says we need to stop underestimatingChinas power and intentions, and to stop overestimating Americas capacity,becausea correct assessment of their relative positionsis essential tounderstanding what is happening in Asia and how we can bestrespond.

The writer says we have been too eagerto accept, in the face of clear evidence to the contrary, the idea thatAmericas positionin Asia is invulnerable; that its armed forces areunbeatable,and that its commitment to Asia is unshakeable.

Whites credentials are impressive. Heis Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence StudiesCentre atthe ANU and has published works on militarystrategy andinternational relations. He was Deputy Secretary for Strategy andIntelligencein the Australian Department of Defence from 1995 until 2000 and was theinauguralDirector of the AustralianStrategic Policy Institute.

He argues that Australia is a key player in the Asian region, but that Australian governments have failed to act effectively on the recognition that China is working towards becoming the leading power in the Asia-Pacific region, and in the world, and that it will almost certainly achieve that.

In the essay, White says that we need to have a nationalconversation about how Australia should respond to what is the biggestshift inthe international environment sinceEuropeans settled on this continent. Heargues that it is now time to start talking aboutthe real choices we must make.

India andChina will unquestionably play a greater role in the new order and while we maycontinue to hope that America willplay a substantial role in Asias new order,wecannot simply rely on that nation to keep Asia “safe” in future.

I came away from reading this tightly argued booklet, satisfied that this is a debate that we must have in Australia and that our federal government must address it urgently. There are serious questions that are not being addressed about defence thinking, and the way we are slanting our approach to these two great powers.

My take-home is that we have made a very bad decision about AUKUS and that we must not under any circumstances go to war with China over Taiwan. We need to engage in a thoughtful national debate about ways in which we can most effectively work in the new world order that is emerging.