In early August, U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, announced she planned to make a trip to Taiwan to give it moral encouragement at a time of tense relations with China. She would be the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan since 1997, when Speaker Newt Gingrich made the trip.

Before she departed, she and many others raved about her trip saying it would confirm Americas support for Taiwan at a critical time. However, President Biden and the U.S. Department of Defense officials advised her against the trip. American leaders looked to be speaking with two opposing voices.

Further complicating the matter, Taiwans top diplomat in Washington, Bi-khim Hsiao, reportedly (in Taiwans media) telephoned Speaker Pelosi and asked her not to make the trip. Pelosi said something like Mind your own business even though obviously Hsiao had President Tsai Ing-wens blessing before she made the call.

In route to Taiwan the Speakers plane went out of its way to avoid flying over the South China Sea where China has a presence, but which the U.S. claims to be a free international space and often times sends its naval ships through the area to prove that. Nancy apparently did not want to incite Beijing any more than she already had. Or she lacked spine, which was not the image she otherwise projected.

Once in Taiwan Speaker Pelosi received a grand heros welcome that included showy public meetings with President Tsai amidst accolades from Taiwans press. In return she spoke laudatory words about Taiwans democracy and its right to choose its future.

Meanwhile, the press in the United States gave mixed reviews to Pelosis Taiwan trip. They fancied the attention she gave to Taiwan. But they also wrote about her selfish motive: burnishing her legacy at a time when she was soon to be voted off stage with the coming November election, which it is assumed the Democratic Party will lose. Further She is 82 (three years older than Joe) and at times is as incoherent as President Biden. Thus, this was to be her last hurrah.

Then, President Biden stated emphatically U.S. Taiwan policy (that contradicted Pelosis narrative): There is One China (the Peoples Republic)! No to Taiwans independence! Pro-China! Crystal clear!

Yet the naked truth about President Bidens foreign policy thinking was that China was Americas paramount challenge and, therefore, is an existential enemy. Logically then, our enemys enemy (Taiwan) is our friend and ally.

Confusion galore!

In fact, President Biden was on record castigating China in harsh terms and taking actions accordingly. In June Biden had made a trip to Europe to rally democratic nations against China. But most European countries saw China as an important trading partner. They also realised China was making great strides in expanding its global influence in financial matters and in science and technology. Finally, many Europeans considered the U.S. overbearing while trying desperately to maintain its global dominance in a unipolar world.

Not to be deterred President Biden subsequently launched an effort to build an anti-China alliance in Asia, comprised of Japan, South Korea, India and Australia. But the viability of the alliance is yet to be demonstrated.

But Biden had another ally. The liberal Western media, including the U.S. mainstream media, backed Bidens efforts and even raised the temperature of vilifying and assailing China.

They cited China for trying to destroy the U.S.-built liberal world order, for President Xi making a bid for a third term in office (breaking the two-term limit), and much more.

President Biden and his allies in the U.S. media called for economic sanctions against China, copying President Trump but expanding it in scope. President Biden even broached cutting trade with China. But the results were contradictory: U.S.-China trade increased, according to Global Times by a whopping 28,7 percent in 2021 while it continued to grow in 2022.

Joe even said the U.S. would defend Taiwan. Then he walked this back and White House officials tried to explain away the gaffe.

Chinas leaders responded to Pelosis trip to Taiwan with extensive military exercises near and even over Taiwan. Americas response? Some U.S. officials said China was trying to save face and its actions were not meaningful. Others advised not upsetting Chinas leaders since America was not ready for combat with China.

Almost simultaneously the press cited U.S. arms sales to Taiwan to the tune of a billion dollars. This was seen as Biden coming to Taiwans rescue. But Ukraine had received more than 13 billion in free aid.

More muddle in U.S. Taiwan policy

To handle these paradoxes some pundits broached assessing Americas national interests in the context of its Taiwan policy. It seemed there were poignant matters to cite in this connection.

One was the geopolitical role Taiwan plays in preventing China from expanding its naval power in the Western Pacific. Taiwan is part of the reverse Great Wall blocking Chinas naval expansion beyond proximity to Chinas shores. More specifically if Taiwan were to become part of China the submarine base on Taiwans east coast would become homebase for Chinas submarine fleet that could promptly enter deep water and travel undetected to Americas West Coast.

But few Americans were aware of this, and the media did not broadcast it.

Instead, what was in the news was the matter of the availability of computer chips that are critical to making cars, computers, and much more. Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company, a firm worth $550 billion that controls more than half the global market formade-to-order chipsand has an even tighter stranglehold on the most advanced processors (with more than 90% of market share by some estimates) was front and center. TSMC is vitally important to the U.S. for economic reasons, not to mention its national security.

But. Arguably transcending everything else in importance is the fact that if Taiwan were to become part of China by force Americas credibility in Asia and the world would be shot. Other countries in Asia would reconsider aligning with the U.S.

How could Americas national strategy and global preeminence not prevail?

The answer is: The strategic narratives were trumped by Taiwan being a shinning democracy. President Trump chose using the democracy theme against his Republican foes at home and China. It was thus his main narrative.

But Taiwans political system had recently grown some warts. In 2016, right after Tsai Ing-wen was elected president and her party, the Democratic Progressive Party, or the DPP, which attained a majority in the legislature for the first time ever, passed a bill to seize the illegitimate Nationalist Party (KMT) assets gotten in decades past. This neutered the opposition party making it difficult to impossible for the KMT to compete in election campaigns. Before the 2020 election Tsai and her party passed another bill to restrict candidates and parties from siding with China and set forth serious punishments for doing so. This was aimed at constraining the KMTs freedom of speech.

Scholars and many pundits in Taiwan labelled both acts contrary to democracy. In fact, it was difficult to argue otherwise.

More contradictions

There were also some inconvenient truths about Taiwans residents that opinion surveys revealed, the best done by Chengchi University in Taiwan and Duke University in the U.S. They recorded that few of Taiwans males (unlike men in Ukraine) wanted to fight and possibly die to defend their homeland. Further, many residents planned to flee if they learned of a coming Chinese invasion. This could result in a million of more refugees going to the U.S. or other countriessomething American supporters of Taiwan didnt talk about.

In addition, most residents of Taiwan told the pollsters they think unification with China will ultimately happen (because of Chinas rise and the fact the U.S. will not in the long run be able to protect Taiwan from China). This accords with Chinas policy for recovering Taiwan by 2049, the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic indicating China is not in a hurry to absorb Taiwan refuting the charge China is about to invade Taiwan.

Finally. Most American Taiwan scholars and diplomats involved in U.S. Taiwan relations have long favoured the policy of strategic ambiguity, and still do. That policy was used decades ago to leash Chiang Kai-shek to prevent him from attacking China to start a U.S.-China war, and to prevent Taiwans efforts to build a nuclear bomb and President Chen Shui-bian from bombing Chinas sites as he suggested doing if pressed. There was even talk of Taiwan launching missiles to hit Chinas Three Gorges dam, which would reportedly kill tens of millions of Chinese.

Of course, it was also to deter China from attacking Taiwanand did. But this cannot last in view of Americas decline and Chinas rise. Thus, many observers judged that the Biden administrations Taiwan policy, a policy of dual deterrence, is at best temporary.

In conclusion, Americas Taiwan policy appears to be a puzzle within a maze. It is at best unclear; at worst, it is confusing and risk prone.