The renowned China hand mistook Beijing’s linking of Taiwan and the “great rejuvenation” as a recent development and failed to trace the origin of the “great rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation back to at least 1997.

Its comforting to see President Joe Biden, after meeting President Xi Jinping, said today, I do not think there is any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.

That is because, for quite some time, theres been a lot of talk in the United States that China has a 2027 deadline on Taiwan, and recently Admiral Mike Gilday, the head of the US Navy, even said China could move militarily on Taiwan in this year or next.

From the Financial Times on 20 October: When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window, Gilday told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday. I dont mean at all to be alarmist…its just that we cant wish that away. …

Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said the 2027 timeline was baked into US thinking, particularly in the Pentagon and the intelligence community. But she said it seemed to be based on an assessment of when China would have the capability to invade Taiwan rather than on intelligence that provided information about Beijings intent.

We cant rule out anything, but stating that there is a 2022 or 2023 window is sheer speculation. I think its irresponsible, said Glaser, who was sceptical of the view that China had set a goal to invade by 2027.

Beijing has never said anything that would substantiate the so-called 2027 window, let alone 2022 or 2023. Such speculation, especially by a current senior U.S. military commander, is not conducive to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, to China-U.S. relations or the entire Asia Pacific.

There is another, more deeply rooted Western myth about Taiwan. A high-profile example recently came by with Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister of Australia and renowned China hand who speaks fluent Mandarin, writing in Foreign Affairs on November 9, two weeks after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China:

“The CCP was previously hesitant to embrace any kind of public timetable or deadline for retaking Taiwan. Xi, by contrast, has stated that retaking Taiwan is critical to Chinas national rejuvenation and that he aims to complete that rejuvenation by 2049”.

There are two errors here.

Xi was not the first Chinese top leader to link the reunification of Taiwan with Chinas national rejuvenation.

Jiang Zemin said in his report (CHN) at the 15th Party Congress in 1997:

“We are fully determined and capable of finally resolving the Taiwan issue. No matter how many difficulties and obstacles remain on the road to the complete reunification of the motherland, all Chinese people and all Chinese sons and daughters on both sides of the Strait, from the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation, hand in hand the complete reunification of the motherland and the comprehensive revitalisation of the nation, will certainly be achieved”.

The word rejuvenation is basically synonymous with revitalisation, but the Party replaced revitalisation with rejuvenation since the 16th Party Congress in 2002.

Jiang Zemin said in his report (CHN) at the 16th Party Congress in 2002:

“If the country is to be reunited and the nation is to be rejuvenated, the Taiwan issue cannot be delayed indefinitely”.

Hu Jintao said in his report (CHN) at the 17th Party Congress in 2007:

“Cross-strait reunification is a historical necessity for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

Hu Jintao said in his report (CHN) at the 18th Party Congress in 2012:

“We firmly oppose the secessionist attempts of “Taiwan independence”. The Chinese people will never allow anyone or any force to divide Taiwan from the motherland in any way. The secessionist acts of “Taiwan independence” are detrimental to the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and are bound to lead to complete failure.

If all Chinese people work together, we will be able to accomplish the great task of reunification of the motherland in the process of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with one heart”.

In all these Party Congresses featuring two predecessors to Xi, the “national rejuvenation was linked with the reunification of Taiwan, contrasting with Rudds characterisation in Foreign Affairs on November 9.

(Its perhaps only fair to add that the erroneous characterisation is certainly not limited to Rudd, who, despite this error, still stands out with his China expertise and ties.)

The CCP was previously hesitant to embrace any kind of public timetable or deadline for retaking Taiwan. Xi, by contrast, has stated that retaking Taiwan is critical to Chinas national rejuvenation and that he aims to complete that rejuvenation by 2049.

Now, the second error, which is also not limited to Rudd

On November 29, 2012, leading his colleagues in the Politburo Standing Committee of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to visit an exhibition titled The Road to Rejuvenation in Beijing, according to the readout (CHN) by Xinhua.

Xi Jinping concluded by emphasising that:

“I firmly believe that the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects by the 100th year of the founding of the Communist Party of China will be achieved, and the goal of building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modern socialist country by the 100th year of the founding of New China will be achieved, and the dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be realised”.

This is what Rudd characterised as: he (Xi) aims to complete that rejuvenation by 2049, because the New China refers to the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), founded in 1949, so the 100th year refers to 2049.

However, looking more closely, Xi was actually just adopting a more catchy and inspiring phrase - the great rejuvenation - to describe the goal of building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modern socialist country by the 100th year of the founding of New China will be achieved.

That means:

The great rejuvenation = the goal of building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modern socialist country by the 100th year of the founding of New China will be achieved

Put another way, the great rejuvenation was not born out of thin air; it was a catchy, inspiring, and more easily memorable rephrasing of a long, wordy expression.

That means tracing the origin of the great rejuvenation in the Communist Party of China requires going back to tracing the goal of building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modern socialist country by the 100th year of the founding of New China will be achieved.

So when was the goal first brought up?

Jiang Zemin said in his report (CHN) at the 15th Party Congress in 1997:

“By the middle of the century, when the country is 100 years old, it will have basically achieved modernisation and become a rich, strong, democratic, and civilised socialist country”.

Jiang Zemin said in his report (CHN) at the 16th Party Congress in 2002:

“By the middle of this century, we will basically realise modernisation and build China into a rich, strong, democratic, and civilised socialist country”.

Hu Jintao said in his report (CHN) at the 17th Party Congress in 2007:

“Building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modernised socialist country.”

Hu didnt mention a specific timing in 2007, but people like me know very well Hu famously added the harmoniousto rich, strong, democratic, and civilised.

Hu Jintao said in his report (CHN) at the 18th Party Congress in 2012 on November 8, 2012:

“As long as we have ideals and firm beliefs, do not waver, do not slacken, avoid self-inflicted setbacks, and struggle tenaciously, painstakingly, and relentlessly, we will certainly be able to build a moderately prosperous society by the 100th year of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious socialist modern country by the 100th year of the founding of the new China”.

21 days later, Xi led his colleagues to The Road to Rejuvenation exhibition where Xi Jinping concluded by emphasising that:

“I firmly believe that the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects by the 100th year of the founding of the Communist Party of China will be achieved, and the goal of building a rich, strong, democratic, civilised, and harmonious modern socialist country by the 100th year of the founding of New China will be achieved, and the dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be realised”.

(Its word by word!)

In summary, thegreat rejuvenationreplaced and rephrased what can be traced back to Hu and Jiang as far back as1997(CHN):

By the middle of the century, when the country is 100 years old, it will have basically achieved modernisation and become a rich, strong, democratic, and civilised socialist country.

(I didnt go back further than 1997 because this is enough, its now quite late in Beijing, and my laptop is running out of battery.)

Edited by Zichen Wang and now hosted at the Center for China and Globalisation (CCG), a leading non-government thinktank in Beijing that takes no position on issues raised in the newsletter. Everything in this article represents the views of the author.

First published in PEKINGNOLOGY Nov 14 2022