Among the superstitious political elites in Japan, recent events like the earthquake, the plane collision at Haneda and the arrest of a lawmaker in a major political slush fund do not bode well for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, already unpopular. AUKUS can be another nightmare for Fumio Kishida, albeit external in nature.

The decision for Japan to join or not to join AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) is a complex issue that involves various strategic, geopolitical, and domestic considerations.

Japan’s decision to join AUKUS might provoke regional tensions or concerns, particularly from China and some Asean member states. South Korea may find it difficult to convince North Korea the weapons are for defensive purposes. Besides, the presence of the submarines may give North Korea the excuse to double down on its nuclear threats.

Some ASEAN member states with whom Japan have been expanding military ties may get the feeling that Tokyo is stabbing their backs. After all, Japan is a signatory to the Asean Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty. Given Japans defence predicament in the context of the US-Sino rivalry where Japan values its economic and defence relationship with the Asean member states, a decision to embrace AUKUS may not augur well with Tokyos preference for a more nuanced policy.

Also, it will certainly be perceived as an alignment against China, potentially escalating existing regional rivalries and complicating diplomatic and economic ties with China. Joining AUKUS will further strain Japan-China relations, impacting trade, investment, and regional stability.

Japan traditionally focuses on non-military solutions to global challenges and often emphasises diplomacy and economic cooperation. Joining AUKUS, which has a strong security and military focus, may not align entirely with Japan’s preferred approach to regional issues.

Under Kishida-san, Japan has been splurging on defence. According to Reuters Kishida plans to spend an estimated $320 billion over the next five years. Accordingly, the increase would push the defence spending over two per cent of its gross domestic product. This expenditure comes at a time when the approval rate for Kishidas cabinet has plunged to 17.1 % in December.

Japan’s participation in AUKUS will certainly raise the defence bar. It might be perceived as further militarisation in the region, complicating the ongoing arms race dynamics leading to an increase in tensions, which could destabilise the Indo-Pacific.

These arguments highlight potential concerns and challenges that Japan might consider before joining AUKUS. However, there are also arguments in favour of Japan’s involvement, such as enhanced security cooperation and coordination with like-minded powers in the Indo-Pacific region that do not necessarily view China in bad light. Ultimately, Japan’s decision to join AUKUS or pursue other forms of security cooperation will depend on a careful assessment of its national interests, regional dynamics, diplomatic considerations, and long-term strategic goals.

A better option for Japan to keep peace in the region is to avoid unnecessary entanglements.