The Federal governments reaction to Israels conduct of the war in Gaza and treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is a likely reason for the significant increase in the Greens vote.

Readers may recall an earlier article by me published in P&I back in January and titled The 2025 Federal Election what are we to do?

The theme of the article was how the Gazan war and our governments response to it must necessarily impact on many peoples voting intentions in the next Federal election. In particular, attention was drawn to the many disenchanted traditional Labor voters and what they might do.

The Dunstan by-election was held on 23 March. The final result has been delayed but it is now in. That result is as follows: Liberal 43.5%, Labor 32.1%, Greens 19.1%, Animal Justice 3.2%, and Aust. Family Party 2%. That compares with the result at the last election of Liberal 46.7%, Labor 35.2%, Greens 13.7%, and Family First 4%.

Only the Greens increased their vote, and by a significant near 6%. The combined major party vote fell by over 6% enabling the Greens to muse that a similar result in the 2025 Federal election could see the Greens win the Federal seat of Sturt.

To what extent can it be claimed that the current Federal governments reaction to Israels conduct of the war in Gaza and treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is the reason for the significant increase in the Greens vote? The answer to that question may well lie in the extensive campaign by the Australian Friends of Palestine Association (AFOPA) calling upon Dunstan voters to Send a message to the major parties, particularly Labor. The writer is not aware of any other new issue that has arisen since the 2022 election.

AFOPA is not affiliated with any political party and until the Dunstan by-election had not endorsed any party or candidates. On this occasion AFOPA published leaflets in support of the Greens candidate Katie McCusker and drew attention to the Greens having consistently been on the side of Justice for Palestinians. The campaign was extensive and well received.

Something in the order of 6% does not sound too dramatic. But consider what has happened here. In 2022 Labors first preference was 11.5% less than the Liberals, and it lost the election. In 2024, Labors first preference vote was 11.4% less than the Liberals; and its vote decreased. Yet it was able to win this election. There is a significant message here to both Liberal and Labor concerning why the Greens vote increased. No doubt there were also traditional Liberal voters who were disenchanted with their partys public statements on Gaza. They too wanted to Send a message.

So, make of the election results what you will. And remember your conclusion at the time of the next Federal election.