For the second year running, lies have emerged as the primary risk facing humanity, in the Global Risks Survey 2024-25 conducted by the World Economic Forum of 900 experts worldwide.

Disinformation and misinformation are now deemed more dangerous, in the short run (next two years), than violent climate events, wars and societal disintegration.

Even over a decade, the avalanche of falsehood that has consumed government, politics, business, media and society still ranks just behind climate, eco-collapse and natural resource scarcity.

The global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains, the WEF states, noting expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarisation, and continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information.

Optimism is in decline worldwide, propelled by the danger of miscalculation or misjudgement by political and military actors, the report notes. Nearly two thirds of survey respondents anticipate stormy or turbulent times ahead over the coming decade. There has been a loss of faith in international institutions, while humanitarian crises are multiplying and worsening. Conflicts continue at a near-record 180/year, while world arms spending has risen steeply to a new record $2.4 trillion.

The report also notes the formation of an ugly nexus between lies, AI and digital technologies, leading to increasingly ill-informed, alienated and polarised societies. It notes that surveillance of individuals is rising strongly, thanks to their willing embrace of digital technology The spread of AI technologies means that people no longer know what information or imagery is true, leading to a general collapse in trust of institutions, media, business and governments.

The report concludes humanity may be approaching a point of no return in 2035 and beyond, resulting from a confluence of extreme weather events, natural resource scarcities, misinformation, adverse impacts AI and global pollution. It emphasises that these risks can still be mitigated through treaties, public education and global co-operation but seems doubtful these will occur.

One of the most practical and urgent measures is an Earth Systems Treaty, proposed by the Council for the Human Future and explained by Pearls and Irritations here.