Ma Ying-jeou warns that William Ching-te Lai is leading cross-strait relations into “a major crisis”.

Taiwanese leader William Ching-te Lai delivered a speech on 13 March, outlining 17 measures across five key areas – moves that appear more confrontational than anything his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, pursued over her eight-year tenure. Beijing swiftly responded with a statement the same day, followed by newspaper editorials condemning the provocation. While the mainland’s reaction has so far been limited to rhetoric, tensions across the Taiwan Strait have once again entered a period of heightened turbulence.

Lai’s speech came just a day ahead of Beijing’s commemoration of the 20th anniversary of its Anti-Secession Law, marked by a symposium led by Zhao Leji, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, China’s top legislative body. People’s Daily, the CPC’s flagship newspaper, published Zhao’s speech in full, along with excerpts from four other speeches given at the symposium. While these remarks do not seem to have been direct responses to Lai’s speech, People’s Daily also ran a separate commentary specifically addressing his remarks.

Beyond the timing, Lai’s designation of the Chinese mainland as a “foreign hostile force” is likely to be a major irritant for Beijing. As C.V. Chen pointed out in a column in the China Times, a major newspaper in Taiwan, under Taiwan’s constitution — formally the Constitution of the Republic of China  — there is only one China. Moreover, Taiwan’s Anti-Infiltration Act, passed during Tsai’s administration, defines “foreign hostile forces” but does not specify who they are, nor does it grant Lai the authority to make such a determination. (C.V. Chen was the founding vice-chairman and inaugural secretary-general of the Straits Exchange Foundation, Taiwan’s quasi-official organisation for liaising with Beijing, established in the early 1990s.)

Lai also took a systematic approach in formulating his 17 measures, which could easily lead Beijing to conclude that the Democratic Progressive Party leader is taking a comprehensive and substantial step toward deepening the divide between Taiwan and the mainland. Previously, the DPP administration had been slow to reopen Taiwan to mainland tourists – an action that could have significantly eased tensions. Now, Lai has pledged to place broader cross-strait exchanges under a stricter “risk management” framework.

The timing of Lai’s speech is also notable, given that US President Donald Trump appears largely indifferent to Taiwan, raising fresh doubts about Washington’s security commitment to the island.

With US domestic politics dominating global headlines and Beijing’s response thus far limited to statements, it would be easy to overlook this development. However, as I warned on Twitter on 13 March, “tensions have suddenly ratcheted up very high with the leader’s speech in Taipei, probably in a qualitatively significant way".

Former Taiwanese leader Ma Ying-jeou, a member of the opposition Kuomintang, voiced concerns in a Meta post on 14 March, warning that Lai’s speech “will lead to a major crisis and impact cross-strait relations as well as stability in the Taiwan Strait".

I urge President Lai Ching-te to abide by the Constitution of the Republic of China, retract his statements on the “new two-state theory” and “hostile foreign forces,” and engage in peaceful dialogue with the Mainland region. He must not plunge the nation and its people into injustice and suffering.

The announcement made by President Lai Ching-te after convening the National Security Council meeting will lead to a major crisis and impact cross-strait relations as well as the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

First, the decision to reinstate military trials represents a reversal by the DPP contradicting its past stance. Is this fair to Hung Chung-chiu and those who initially supported reforms and human rights?

Second, the right of citizens to visit the Mainland and engage in religious exchanges is guaranteed by the Constitution. If the government intends to restrict people’s freedoms, it must do so through legal means; otherwise, it amounts to administrative dictatorship.

Third, and most importantly, Lai has openly labelled the Mainland region as a “hostile foreign force”, violating the constitutional framework governing cross-strait relations and pushing the two sides into an unprecedented perilous situation. Since the 1991 repeal of the Temporary Provisions during the Period of National Mobilisation for Suppression of the Communist Rebellion, the law no longer regards the Mainland as an enemy, and the two sides are no longer in a state of hostility. If Lai seeks to alter the status quo and redefine cross-strait relations, he must amend the Constitution; otherwise, he must adhere to it.

I urge Lai to immediately calm down, follow constitutional principles, and stabilise cross-strait relations to reassure the public and effectively address the current challenges. I solemnly call upon Lai to recognise the gravity of this national crisis and challenge. He should convene a National Affairs Conference by inviting leaders from all political parties and respected figures from society. He must not act unilaterally, as doing so would cause unforeseeable harm to Taiwan’s internal stability and unity, as well as to our international relations and cross-strait ties.

While Ma Ying-jeou’s administration has long been portrayed as pro-China, Sean TX Wu, an academic-turned-scholar, reviewed in an opinion column what the KMT leader achieved in terms of sovereignty.

Lai Ching-te emphasises “national sovereignty” above all, yet, ever since presidents are produced from democratic elections, it was during the Ma Ying-jeou administration that Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty was at its highest! Taiwan enjoyed the most visa-free agreements in history, with its passport ranking among the top 25 globally. Diplomatic relations were the most stable, and Taiwanese civil court rulings were recognised and adopted by EU countries. In terms of relations with the US, Taiwan’s diplomatic personnel in the US received upgraded treatment equivalent to that of official diplomatic allies. The US even turned a blind eye, allowing Taiwan to raise its national flag inside its representative office with a military band performance!

Republished from Pekingnology, 17 March 2025