Popes have been in the news lately. The excellent book and film Conclave give us a sneak preview of what happens in the election process, and Pope Francis’ illness has kept the whole business in the news.

Popes remain popes until they die or resign. It was revolutionary when Benedict XVI resigned in February 2013 because he felt he could no longer exercise the papal ministry adequately. The last indisputable papal resignation was that of Celestine V in 1294.

Largely because pre-modern medicine was primitive and dangerous for the patient, sick popes died quickly. Historically, the average length of a papacy is just over seven years. But with modern medicine keeping people alive much longer, it’s possible a pope could become totally incapacitated by some progressive form of mental or physical deterioration. That’s why Benedict’s resignation is important; he broke the precedent that popes remain in office until death.

During the two to three-week interregnum between a papal death or resignation and the conclave, the church is run by the College of Cardinals. During the interregnum, the cardinals operate according to strict rules which cannot be changed. The word “conclave” refers to a locked election meeting, from the Latin cum clave, “with a key”; it’s held in the Sistine Chapel.

To be elected, a candidate must gain a majority of two-thirds of the cardinals’ votes. The purpose is to force the cardinals to compromise and reach an agreed consensus about who should be pope.

Presently there are 138 cardinals under the age of 80 who have a vote. Besides the Europeans (54) and the North Americans (12), the diverse cultural and geographical background of the other 72 makes this conclave difficult to predict. There are four cardinals from our region: from Tonga, PNG, NZ and Melbourne-based Ukrainian bishop, Mykola Bychok.

Francis has appointed many cardinals from the developing world and many will have been deeply involved in local issues, often dealing with poverty, environmental devastation, disease, or unstable, corrupt governments. While they will share many of the emphases of Francis, they won’t have had time to think about the issues facing the papacy.

As a result, they’ll tread carefully and I think that many peripheral cardinals will favour electing an Italian. I also think the dividing line in the conclave will be between those who favour continuing Francis’ emphases and those who want to retreat to a more traditional line.

The one most likely to be perceived as a Francis-style bishop is Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna. Born in Rome in 1955, he is a historian and is a member of the Sant’Egidio Community, which engages in inter-religious dialogue, peace activities and supporting the marginalised and poor around the world. Ordained priest in May 1981, he’s had wide ministerial experience in Roman parishes and played a key role in Sant’Egidio Community’s work in helping to end the civil war in Mozambique in 1992. Last year, he went on a peace mission to Ukraine representing Pope Francis. He met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but not Vladimir Putin. He then went to the US to meet then-President Biden.

In January 2012, he was ordained assistant-bishop of Rome and in December 2015 he was appointed Archbishop of Bologna and created cardinal in October 2019. He has enormous ministerial experience in the diocese of Rome, of which the pope is bishop. Through the Sant’Egidio community, he has experience of the wider developing world; he is an honorary citizen of Mozambique for his reconciliation work there. Sympathetic to LGBTIQ+ issues, he is very much in the “who am I to judge” tradition.

Zuppi is my numero uno for next pope.

Another Italian often mentioned is Pietro Parolin, the Secretary of State, essentially papal prime minister and foreign minister combined. From Schiavon in northeastern Italy, he was born in 1955 and was ordained in 1980.

For almost all of his career he has served in the Holy See’s diplomatic service. In 2009, he was appointed Nuncio to Venezuela, a difficult post because the country was governed by a socialist regime and the Venezuelan bishops had aligned themselves against the government and supported an unsuccessful coup in 2002. In March 2013, Francis appointed Parolin Secretary of State. He is strongly identified with the pope’s program.

However, he has no pastoral experience and has never run a diocese. Also, during his tenure the Secretariat of State has been involved in two complex financial scandals, one of which involved the purchase and then sale of an expensive London property in South Kensington with the Vatican losing some €200 million. Early on in the Francis papacy he was seen as a “hot tip” but his star has faded considerably.

Luis Tagle, Pro-Prefect of the Vatican Dicastery for Evangelisation, was formally archbishop of Manila, Philippines. Many see him as a strong possibility because of his contact with the world church through the evangelisation office and his developing world experience. But there have been administrative problems in his running of the worldwide Catholic charity Caritas and he’s less prominent now.

There will also be cardinals who want to retreat from Francis’ emphases. Their support will focus on Péter Erdö, archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest. Born in June 1952 in Budapest, his whole education and early ministry occurred under the communist regime.

Ordained priest in 1975, he had a brief stint in parishes, and then began a long academic career in Hungary, teaching canon law and theology. For three years he was Assistant-Bishop of Székesfehérvár in central Hungary. He was then appointed Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and Primate of Hungary in December 2002 and made a cardinal in 2003.

He was president of the Hungarian Episcopal Conference from 2005 to 2010, and served two terms between 2006 and 2016 as President of the Council of the Bishops Conferences of Europe.

Erdö’s relationship with the authoritarian, right-wing Fidesz Party Government led by the Protestant Viktor Orbán is close. Both Catholics and Protestants are generously government- subsidised. In response, the bishops don’t embarrass Orban’s Government by supporting refugees and migrants and LGBT+ people, groups targeted by Fidesz. However, Erdö’s Euro-centrism will make him unattractive to peripheral cardinals.

For a much more detailed analysis see my “After Pope Francis … who?’“at the web page www.paulcollinscatholicwriter.com.au