If I were defence minister...
If I were defence minister...
Mike Gilligan

If I were defence minister...

On becoming Australia’s new defence minister, I will advise cabinet at its first meeting that our nation is at a perilous, strategic crossroad.

We are about to embark on massive spending which surely will weaken our security. Why? Because governments have chosen to ignore the folly of embracing the United States as a benevolent “ally” unquestioningly, to the point where our defence spending serves US objectives ahead of our own confused aspirations.

Australia is now enmeshed in America’s military planning for conflict with China. Not because China is a threat to us, but because Australia’s leaders see political advantage in conflating US objectives with our own.

Believe it or not, for many decades our defence policy was based on the belief that Australia could not rely on America for our security. We had learnt, the hard way, through a sequence of rejections and the disaster of Vietnam. Moreover, ever since the ANZUS treaty was signed in 1951, our friends in the US often warned us to be wary.

To understand our predicament, we must realise that ANZUS is little more than a political gimmick. It was born as a face-saver. Our foreign minister Percy Spender had spent months in the US seeking a security guarantee for Australia which was denied, resolutely. To cover his failure, the US gave Spender a script which could be embellished – known as the ANZUS treaty. Despite ANZUS offering no security guarantee, prime minister Robert Menzies seized the opportunity to create a narrative of his conservative government as the nation’s saviour. ANZUS has been misrepresented politically ever since, shamelessly.

I would say to my colleagues that this new government must be bigger than that, not reflexively misleading Australians on their security. And we won’t be the first to grasp the US nettle. Fifty years ago Australia did adopt a self-reliant security posture. It was finely planned, set out in our first-ever white paper in 1976. Thereafter, we became our own masters: self-reliance was our absolute priority. Any involvement of our forces which the US sought was rejected, if it detracted from this focus. This occurred routinely.

And the US accepted this position for the next 35 years, because it suited Washington until president Barack Obama’s visit in 2010 slyly engineered our complicity in confronting China. Since then, every Australian Government has folded to US blandishment. Our sovereignty has been progressively relinquished, for US bases to attack China. Self-reliance simply vanished overnight without a murmur, buried deceitfully.

Today, with a specious America exposing itself once more (Trump), commentators are hypothesising about a new concept – they call it self-reliance. So our new government can expect domestic support for adopting independence.

The upside for Australians should be immediate. No longer will our security be measured by a financial stat – the defence share of GDP. Instead, analysis of the means of defending Australia will shape our spending. Spending will be wound down and our security will be strengthened by a judicious shift in priorities. Current financially-suicidal projects for America’s objectives will be abolished. And not just confined to nuclear submarines. Our navy is being shaped on the advice of an American admiral, to serve Americas interests, not those of Australia. Our army has been egregiously distorted for high-intensity amphibious warfare alongside US Marines in north Asia island chains.

Trenchant analysis against our own needs will release valuable funds for reallocation. With America intent on destroying the economy of our largest trading partner, this government will need every penny.

Australia is already well down this path, intellectually and practically. We have overcame our greatest defence challenge – controlling the sea/air approaches to this massive continent, by pioneering over-the-horizon radar. The US and Canada have validated our vision by investing in OTHR themselves, 30 years after Australia embraced its extraordinary cost-effectiveness.

Yet, this time the US reaction to our self-reliance is unlikely to be supportive. Rancorous, more likely, even though our forces are not critical to US planning against China. That will be a political and diplomatic challenge. I believe this government is up for it.

Australia’s position is simply that we judge that China is not a military threat. And Australia’s interests differ from those of the US, such that we must step away from its confrontation with China. Unsaid is our aversion to the risk of the US once again changing its strategic policy, leaving us dangling at the throat of China. Which is untenable.

Cabinet colleagues, this government has work to do for our nation’s future.

Mike Gilligan

Dr Mike Gilligan worked for 20 years in defence policy and evaluating military proposals for development, including time in the Pentagon on military balances in Asia.