We still cannot feel confident in predicting the outcome of this 2025 election. But what we can confidently say is that it has been a quite remarkable campaign, shaped by external events in unpredictable ways.

This has been quite a remarkable election campaign whatever the outcome. That stands out. I can trace its unpredictability by looking at my speaking notes since last December on the local Canberra community speaking circuit.

Last year was one of steady decline in public esteem for the Albanese Government. By December, it ended the year behind in the polls by about 49%-51%, reversing the position at the beginning of 2024. The situation wasn’t terminal, but all the talk was of a descent into minority government.

This seemed to fit comfortably with the global pattern. From the 2023 New Zealand election onwards with the defeat of its Labour government, two trends stood out. Incumbent governments frequently seemed to be in trouble. Incumbent state governments in Queensland and the Northern Territory also lost. The UK elections in mid-2024 saw the decimation of the incumbent Conservative Government.

European elections, in France and Germany, saw incumbent centrist governments under enormous pressure from the far right.

Most of these defeated governments were on the centre-left too. There were some exceptions, but that was the general trend. It didn’t bode well for the Albanese Government.

Then, in early November, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. While Trump was quite unpopular among Australians, the result seemed merely to confirm that centre-left incumbents were on the nose. The Australian Opposition, its position apparently solidified, was tempted into emphasising its closeness to what Trump stood for. This included being anti-woke, anti-DEI, and critical of the efficiency of the public service.

Trump’s inauguration in January didn’t immediately signal any major warning signs for the Australian election campaign, though uneasiness grew. By the end of January/early February, the Labor Government seemed to be in deep trouble. There was even talk of the possibility of a Coalition majority, something seen as totally unlikely if not impossible for much of Labor’s term.

By early March, with a Reserve Bank rate cut, Labor was steadying its ship. But I still thought the most likely election outcome (60:40) was a narrow victory and a minority Dutton minority government.

Then, as the trajectory of Trump 2.0 became clearer, things started to swing back. Before long, the opinion polls started to turn in Labor’s favour. I hedged my bets and had Labor narrowly ahead by about 60:40.

At this stage, another external event intervened. The prime minister was planning an April election, but just as he was about to announce it, Cyclone Alfred forced a delay. It couldn’t be called in the middle of a national natural disaster emergency.

Instead, Albanese dropped his plans and went to Queensland, figuratively rolling up his sleeves. After some confusion, so did Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, but the advantage in these circumstances is always with incumbent.

Albanese, on the ground, was able to effectively “show the common touch”. He grew in confidence and that momentum flowed into the election campaign when he finally called the election for 3 May.

Trump, in the meantime, was becoming increasingly like electoral “poison” in Australia. His so-called “Liberation Day” on 2 April cemented this impression. The economic dangers of his anti-free trade policies played into the hands of the Albanese Government, enabling it to emphasise the need for stability.

The unpredictable situation gave some openings for Dutton to argue his credentials as the better leader to confront Trump. But that came to nothing as he and his frontbench stumbled over just what his team had to offer. A reference with echoes of Trump to “make Australia great again” didn’t help the Opposition’s cause.

As the polls swung further in Labor’s favour, events again conspired to assist Albanese. Time was already running out for the Opposition to unveil its policies as school holidays, Easter, and Anzac Day interrupted the flow of the campaign.

Then, on Easter Monday, came the announcement of the sudden death of Pope Francis. Both sides dialled back their campaigning, and the leaders attended Catholic church services in the pope’s memory.

Like Cyclone Alfred, the pope’s death also played into Albanese’s hands. Not just the fact of uncertain times, but a second opportunity for Albanese, a cultural Catholic, to speak candidly and personally of what his own faith meant to him. He did well. It was another authentic moment. They always play to one’s advantage.

These external events are just one thread in the campaign, of course. We can’t presume to know the election result. The government may still be defeated. The Coalition may conjure another “miracle” victory as Morrison did in 2019. But what seems more likely is a “sweet” Labor return to government, more like 1993.

Whatever the outcome, history will record an election campaign which has been quite remarkable in the unpredictable impact of external events.