In an imaginary situation, members of Australia’s political and miliary elite were in court at the same time defending themselves against allegations of an attempted military coup.

The allegations were so serious that the High Court heard the case. The defendants’ former roles were;

• prime minister;
• secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet;
• attorney-general;
• ASIO director-general;
• minister for defence;
• the Navy’s commanding admiral;
• director of the Office of National Assessment; and
• the prime minister’s senior military attaché.

If this happened in Australia, it would be historic and a sensation. However, this is what is happening in Brazil.

President Bolsonaro

Jair Messias Bolsonaro was president of Brazil from 2019 to 2022. The English language translation of his middle name is “Messiah”.

As a junior military officer, he planted a bomb in the country’s premier military academy. He said it was to shame the minister for defence and that he did not intend to hurt anyone. Subsequently, the army expelled him and he entered politics, being elected to a state legislature and later to the national Congress.

From 1964, Brazil had more than two decades of military rule. During that period, and before being elected as the first female president, Dilma Rousseff was tortured by the military. During a Congressional debate over President Rousseff, Bolsonaro — who was then a member of Congress — praised the former military government’s chief torturer as a national hero. Bolsonaro installed the “national hero’s” photo in his Congressional office and, when he became president, he presented an award for the man’s work to the chief torturer’s widow. Rousseff is now the president of the BRICS Bank which is headquartered in China.

As president, Bolsonaro promoted false claims about the effectiveness of certain medicines in stopping COVID, underfunded the primary healthcare system and reluctantly and belatedly approved the government’s purchase of vaccines. He refused to be vaccinated, which influenced many citizens to follow his example and avoid vaccinations. His former senior military attaché described how, in order to visit the US, Bolsonaro forged a vaccination certificate. Under his leadership, Brazil had one of the highest COVID death rates.

Some observers describe him as a colourful figure. More accurately, Bolsonaro’s tenure as president marked him as Brazil’s worst leader since military rule ended 40 years ago.

Background

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) defeated Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections and became president in 2023. A few days later, on 8 January, thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters ransacked the Congressional and Constitutional Court buildings. The damage was much greater than that done to the US Congress on 6 January 2021. By the time the Brazilian Congress and Constitutional Court were partially destroyed, Bolsonaro had flown to Florida to stay for some months.

Immediately after the destruction, the government commenced inquiries and hundreds of rioters were imprisoned for lengthy terms. Police uncovered evidence of the involvement of Bolsonaro, several senior military officials, politicians, advisers and private sector financiers of the mayhem.

On 16 March, an evangelical bishop organised a mass rally in support of Bolsonaro at Copacabana in Rio de Janeiro, predicting that hundreds of thousands would attend. There were between 20,000 and 30,000 in attendance, with commentators describing it as weak support. A comparison is with the National Day 100,000-person rally in September 2022 in Copacabana, with Bolsonaro still president. He transformed the National Day celebration into a political rally for himself. Two rallies in the same location, about 2½ years apart, showed declining support, although he remains popular.

Because we live in Copacabana and the rally was in front of our building, I jointed the 16 March rally, but not as a supporter. It was fascinating to be in the middle of the crowd, the great majority of whom were white and middle-class with almost no blacks present. There were many Brazilian and Israeli flags, with the latter consistent with support for Israel from Bolsonaro and many evangelical churches. Bolsonaro was baptised as a Catholic, but rebaptised in the River Jordan by a Pentecostal minister.

Police inquiries are affecting the family: for instance, with Eduardo Bolsonaro, one of the ex-president’s sons and a member of Congress. A few days after the 16 March rally, Eduardo announced he was in the US to seek political asylum.

São Paulo is the country’s major city and one of the largest globally, and on 6 April it was the site of another large demonstration in support of Bolsonaro. The same evangelical bishop as in Rio organised the event in which approximately 45,000 people participated. As well as backing the ex-president, an objective was to pressure Congress to support an amnesty for other political and military figures charged over the military coup, and amnesty for the hundreds imprisoned because of their destruction of the Congressional and Constitutional Court premises.

Military coup plans

Well before the 2022 elections, Bolsonaro considered a military coup if Lula won. There is ample evidence of his intentions; the most serious involved plans to assassinate Lula and a Constitutional Court judge.

In March, the Constitutional Court decided there was sufficient evidence to warrant a hearing. Brazilian Federal Police named the ex-president as leader of the following figures from his former administration:

• the general who was the vice-presidential candidate and former minister for defence;
• the general who was the director of the Office of National Security;
• a former minister for defence;
• the attorney-general;
• the admiral commanding the Navy;
• director of the agency equivalent to ASIO; and
• the president’s former senior military attaché.

Another 26 alleged participants, including more generals, will go on trial later in April.

The five allegations against the defendants are:

• planning a violent abolition of the democratically elected state;
• criminal organisation;
• military coup;
• acts of violence and grave physical threats; and
• serious damage to nationally important buildings, including the Congressional and Constitutional Court buildings.

Next steps

Next year there will be presidential elections, with the successful candidate assuming the role early in 2027. An earlier judicial decision prohibits Bolsonaro from contesting, although Congress may seek to overcome the ruling. That is because the Partido Liberal, or the Liberal Party, Bolsonaro’s main supporter in Congress, decided to block legislation until Congress considered and granted amnesty for rioters imprisoned after the ransacking of the Congressional and Constitutional Court buildings, and an amnesty for Bolsonaro, generals and senior officials charged with planning the military takeover. Meanwhile, other conservative candidates are manoeuvring as potential presidential election candidates, in case the ex-president’s ineligibility is confirmed.

Brazil internationally

This year Brazil is the BRICS chair and is promoting larger BRICS membership, and later in 2025 it will host COP30. The Australian Government is a candidate for hosting COP31. Mercosur is the common market for several Latin American nations, and MercoSul is negotiating a free-trade agreement with the European Union. This agreement is important because of the US Government’s punitive tariff policies. Of relevance is Lula’s sceptical view of the current US Government. Bolsonaro’s views are different: for example, after Trump’s election, Bolsonaro said he was so animated that “he would no longer need Viagra”. Following Trump’s tariffs announcement, Bolsonaro claimed the tariffs “were only to protect the country against the virus of socialism”.

Like Australia, Brazil’s main export customer is China and the two countries have sound relations. In comparison and without evidence, recently Bolsonaro accused the Brazilian Government of helping China to construct an atomic bomb. Unlike Australia, Brazil imports diesel oil from Russia, has not applied sanctions against that country, and has consistently argued for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Lula will attend World War II Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in May. Also unlike Australia, Brazil largely and consistently adopts a non-aligned foreign policy. Concerning BRICS, COP30 and Mercosur, Bolsonaro has shown little interest which contrasts with the current government’s active role. Consequently, outcomes of the Constitutional Court proceedings and Bolsonaro’s continued exclusion from electoral candidature will have international implications.