The US is not, and has never been, a reliable ally of Australia.

Trump’s imposition of punitive tariffs on the world, including Australia — America’s most obsequious and obedient ally — has done us a favour.

Along with his abandonment of Ukraine; his repudiation of the core principle of NATO (an attack on one is an attack on all) and the increasing uncertainty about whether the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, let alone the Virginia Class stop-gap, will ever be provided to Australia, the tariff blow has led numerous commentators in Australia to question whether America can be considered a “reliable ally”.

The truth is that the US is not, and has never, been a reliable ally of Australia. This is despite Australia has always been a servile and unquestioning, reliable ally of the US.

Australia cannot rely on US protection. Washington has frequently and explicitly told us so, but we never listen. During World War II, General Douglas MacArthur told then prime minister Curtin that US forces in Australia were not for the protection of Australia, they were here to conduct America’s war against Japan.

In the negotiations for the ANZUS Treaty, the US was adamant that it would not include a commitment to come to the defence of Australia, in the event of attack. The most that they agreed to was a commitment to consult.

When former president Joe Biden suddenly withdrew US forces from Afghanistan (a war into which we had dutifully followed the US, despite its complete illegality under international law), and Australia complained that we were left to scramble for ourselves, Biden’s response was that America always acts only in its own interests.

When a US Congressional delegation visited Darwin to inspect progress in the militarisation of Australia’s north, its leader made it clear that it was not for Australia’s protection. It was for the establishment of Australia as ”the epicentre for the projection of American power in the Indo-Pacific”. He couldn’t care less that this made Australia the epicentre for any retaliation against that power.

The many US bases in Australia, plus the “interchangeability” of US and Australian defence (and intelligence) capabilities, have effectively placed Australia under US military occupation.

Australia must be the only country in history to have surrendered without a fight. Ever since the 1950s, successive Australian governments have handed over, piecemeal, Australia’s sovereignty, to become the de facto 51st state of the US.

America has made it clear, most recently with Trump’s tariffs against China, that China is enemy No 1. The official US National Defence Strategy remains to embroil China in a long-drawn-out war, to hobble its growth and impede its capacity to engage in economic development co-operation with the rest of the world.

The US has also made it clear, by its actions in Ukraine, that it will not engage in a shooting war against a nuclear-armed adversary.

It has stated many times that it will instead pursue such a war by proxy (as in Ukraine). Australia, along with the network of alliances ranging from Japan through South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, are the chosen proxies.

This network may be unravelling. Taiwan (despite its pro-independence president), is clearly reluctant to move away from the status quo with China. In addition, Japan, South Korea and China are now working together on co-ordinated action to counter Trump’s tariffs.

This leaves only the possibility of the US engineering a “false flag” incident, involving the Philippines and China, to get the war going. Because of its defence co-operation with the Philippines, Australia would be expected to join in against China.

To lock Australia into US efforts to stymie China, the US propaganda machine has spent many years working to convince the Australian public that China is a threat, in order to manufacture consent for war.

The US sees a threat in China’s successful development, as well as in the development of the rest of the world outside the West, gradually creating a more equitable international system (such as through the BRICS organisation and the Belt & Road Initiative). China is, thus, a challenge to the so-called “rules-based order” which sustains America’s global dominance and which Australia has so foolishly committed to go to war to uphold.

China is not a military threat to Australia. On the contrary, it presents many opportunities, if only Australia had the good sense to take them up. China has never designated Australia as an enemy, let alone indicated an intention to attack Australia. It has always sought to co-operate, including over this latest round of America’s bullying of the whole world, using tariffs. (see footnote)

This conciliatory offer was summarily and rudely rebuffed, although it was taken up by numerous other countries in our region, making us, once again, the “odd man out” in our neighbourhood.

The ASEAN nations, individually and as a collective, are one of the significant powerhouses driving world economic growth. They offer far more beneficial opportunities for Australia than clinging to a declining and ever more dysfunctional America.

To say that “if we want peace, we must prepare for war” is not only an oxymoron, it is moronic.

The only guarantee of lasting peace is a mutually beneficial, co-operative relationship between Australia and its region, including China, in which each side has more to lose than to gain by going to war.

Australia would gain nothing and lose everything in a war against China. It is much bigger and more powerful than Australia could ever hope to be (even if we spent our entire national budget on weapons of war). Australia would be annihilated.

The ANZUS Treaty, and its evil spawn, AUKUS, have been sold to the Australian public as a guarantee of US protection for Australia, against the non-existent “threat from China”. They are not. They, along with the attendant Force Posture Agreement, enable the US to use Australia as useful idiots in conflict with China.

For the US, allies are tools to be sacrificed in the pursuit of America’s interest, and to be discarded when they are no longer useful (such as Ukraine).

We seem to be finally awakening to the reality that America is not a reliable ally. That is a reality which some of us in DFAT realised more than 50 years ago:

We wrote Policy Planning Paper – Qp 11/71 Secret Eclipse 21 July 1971, which said:

“America’s actions give us cause for concern whether our alliance with the United States can protect us at every step from political disadvantage resulting from the manner in which the United States conducts its global policies.

“… The American alliance, in a changing power balance, will mean less to us than it has in the past.… this argument has been strengthened by recent United States’ actions and America’s failure to consult us on issues of primary importance to Australia.

“Accordingly, we shall need, now more than ever, to formulate independent policies, based on Australia’s national interests and those of our near neighbours, that will enable us to react quickly to developments in United States’ policy towards China and Indo-China.”

Instead of backing one superpower against another (as we so foolishly have done in Ukraine), we should oppose our own government’s militarism and warmongering. Our main enemy is at home.

Australia needs an independent foreign policy with its own MAGA movement – “Make America Go Away”.

Footnote:

Ambassador Xiao Qian said:

“Under the new circumstances, China stands ready to join hands with Australia and the international community to jointly respond to the changes of the world, resolutely uphold international equity and justice, defend the multilateral trading system, ensure the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and maintain an open and co-operative international environment.

“In the meantime, China is also committed to working with Australia to implement the strategic consensus reached by the leaders of our two countries, seize opportunities of co-operation, expand mutually beneficial collaboration and promote greater development of China-Australia relations to deliver more benefits and fruits to both countries and peoples.”