Up until the Trump era, it was understood that the United States might go to war with China to in order to defend democracy in Taiwan.

Any Australian involvement in such a war would also be predicated on defending Taiwanese democracy. However, things are now very different: Trump is no more interested in preserving democracy in Taiwan than he is in preserving democracy in the US. Trump’s sole motivation to militarily attack China would be to weaken it economically in the mistaken hope that this would arrest the ongoing and serious slide in US global economic competitiveness. While it is very likely that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan would be used as a pretext for the US to attack China, it would be nothing more than a pretext.

What are the implications of these cold and clear realities for Australia? First, various recent statements by the Defence Minister, Richard Marles, that Australia would be inevitably drawn into any US war with China raise questions as to whether Marles should be in Cabinet, let alone deputy prime minister and defence minister.

Perhaps Marles and others might argue that it doesn’t matter if the US in not actually interested in Taiwanese democracy, as long as it is prepared to go to war with China on the pretext that it is defending Taiwanese democracy. It is true that the current US position might prevent or at least delay a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

However, if any attempt to invade Taiwan actually commenced, and the US engaged in sustained armed conflict with China, Trump can be expected at some point to use Taiwanese democracy as a bargaining chip with China to aid his real objective of arresting US economic decline. Further, if Trump’s conduct in militarily supporting Ukraine is any guide, he is likely to opportunistically monster Taiwan to give away its assets for next to nothing. In summary, Australia could easily end up expending much blood and treasure aboard, and being directly attacked on home soil, to help facilitate dirty deals and agendas.

What then should be Australia’s position on supporting democracy in Taiwan? If Australia wished to participate in the military defence of Taiwan — and it is not being argued here that it shouldn’t — it would need to be done in conjunction with countries other than the United States. These countries would also need to share at least some commitment to democracy and a global rules-based order.

The diplomatic work to enable this to happen needs to start now. Such work needs to go hand in hand with prompt winding up of the presence of US troops and military infrastructure in Australia, given that any mobilisation of these troops will have nothing to do with protecting democracy in either Australia or Taiwan and is instead tied to values and agendas the deeply antithetical to our own.

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.