Is Australia finally coming to terms with East Asia?
Is Australia finally coming to terms with East Asia?
Mark Beeson

Is Australia finally coming to terms with East Asia?

Comedy and economic development have one thing in common: timing is everything.

The rise of both the UK and the US proves the point, although the consequences have often been anything but amusing. On the contrary, Donald Trump is providing a painful reminder that even declining political and economic power can be decisive, and not necessarily in a good way.

Policymaking elites in the US are clearly having trouble adjusting to the idea that it is no longer as powerful and influential as it once was. Given the nature of Trumpian leadership, this may be a good thing, but there’s still lots of potential for collateral damage to be inflicted on friend and putative foe alike during the death throes of American hegemony.

Ironically, the US may have been instrumental in engineering this inevitable outcome. American policy after World War II helped Japan re-emerge from an irradiated wasteland to become the second biggest economy in the world in a couple of decades. Japan’s successful, state-led renaissance also provided the foundation for the “ East Asian miracle” and the subsequent rise of China.

Australian policymakers have generally struggled to reconcile the undoubted benefits of the region’s remarkable economic take-off with the supposed strategic threat that powerful Asian states might pose. And yet, there can be no doubt that the region’s transformation has been broadly very beneficial for Australia, not to mention the millions of our neighbours who have been lifted out of poverty.

Yet some of the hopes and even expectations that a growing Asian middle class would inevitably lead to Western-style liberal democracy have not been fulfilled, adding another layer of complexity for our political and strategic elites. But as Trump is reminding us, democracy is fragile, always vulnerable to rollback, and no guarantee of good domestic or international behaviour.

Indeed, China’s record as a disruptive, violent actor compares very favourably with America’s, which has been at war with someone or other for more than 90% of its history as an independent nation. The less said about Americans’ enthusiasm for killing each other the better, perhaps.

In such circumstances, we might hope that Australian policymakers would at least have a genuine, open-ended discussion about this country’s place in regional affairs. The chances of getting bipartisan agreement about the “national interest” in this context, looks as remote as ever, though, as the criticism of Anthony Albanese’s trip to China reminds us.

And yet it’s hard to know why a visit to the most important country in our region, whether we call it East Asia or the Indo/Asia-Pacific, should attract such scorn. True, Albanese has yet to meet Trump, but that’s not entirely his fault. More importantly, it’s far from clear that any good would come of it. Trump’s unlikely to cut Australia a special trade deal and may well demand that the Australian Government put up yet more money to prop up America’s inadequate submarine-building capacity.

Rather than obligingly and unthinkably going along with what is likely to be an unending series of future demands, the Albanese Government could inaugurate an American-style review of the AUKUS project and the basis of this country’s strategic policy more generally. Recognising the benefits of geography rather than its possible vulnerabilities might be a good starting point.

Yes, we are a long way from Europe and North America, but that really isn’t the end of the world – even if you can see from here. We could get a lot closer to our neighbours diplomatically and recognise our mutual exposure to the madness of King Donald. Given that ASEAN countries are likely to be very badly affected by tariffs, they are likely to be receptive to ideas about economic co-operation, too.

Indeed, Australia could even turn its longstanding rhetoric about the benefits of greater trade integration and political co-operation into reality. Albanese could encourage China to play an even greater part in encouraging regional economic integration and diplomatic co-operation, an idea that might also send a useful and powerful message to the US about the possible dangers of taking allies for granted.

Likewise, serious efforts to make existing institutions such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and especially the East Asia Summitt, which DFAT describes as “the Indo-Pacific’s premier forum for strategic dialogue”, more effective could blunt the impact of America’s selfish and destructive policy agenda while providing an arena for greater co-operation for pressing collective action problems.

While there may be many compelling reasons for some serious thinking and even action in Canberra to rethink our literal and metaphorical place in the world, holding one’s breath is not advisable. Political cowardice, a lack of strategic imagination and a complete inability to recognise, much less address, the very real problems that face us, means that we are destined to continue tugging the diplomatic forelock, throwing good money after bad, and consigning the young people of this country to a life lived in the ruins of a ravaged environmental dystopia.

 

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.

Mark Beeson