Who's afraid of Donald Trump?
Who's afraid of Donald Trump?
Gregory Clark

Who's afraid of Donald Trump?

With his use of extreme tariffs to punish countries with trade surpluses, US President Donald Trump seems to be making an economic fool of himself.

He seems not to realise a basic law of Economics One: Nations should concentrate in the production and sale of goods where they have a natural advantage and import where they lack that advantage.

But just a minute: to the extent some countries punished for manufactured goods trade surpluses with the US are now being forced to manufacture those goods in the US, and so halt the US dangerous slide to deindustrialisation, maybe Trump is not so foolish after all.

Sadly we cannot say the same for the people of the other side of the equation. They tamely submit to being blasted by Trump. They humbly promise to cut back exports or produce the same goods in the US behind tariff barriers.

Their high-powered economic experts have yet to catch up with another basic conclusion of Economics One: If the US cannot compete in producing manufactured goods, that means it is probably competitive in the sale of goods, namely services.

So all we have to do to match outrageous US imposts on say imported cars is to impose an outrageous impost on imported US services – films, brand bags, travelling salesmen.

The Amazon lists of best-selling goods are almost all goods made abroad. But no matter. They sell well in the US because of Amazon’s superior sales skill. So don’t hesitate, Trump. Tax them hard, baby, hard. And Brad Pitt as well.

They will soon get the message. And the alleged economic experts with go back to their textbooks and discover (a) that all economies pass through natural stages of expertise – primary, secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (services). If you lose out in one, you can hope to make up in another.

Other nations could probably replicate Amazon’s success, once it was taxed. In fact, China is well on the way to doing so.

Trump’s calibrations are rough, but some maybe in the right direction. In any case, they may be better than doing nothing.

Japanese car makers used to complain bitterly about import bans forcing then to produce in the US. Then they discovered that all they had to do to succeed was provide superior Japanese management techniques, especially in the non-unionised Southern states.

Australia could have done the same, with refinements. People have to buy. And then they learn how to produce better.

 

The views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.

Gregory Clark