England’s ultra-aggressive “Bazball” approach has transformed its Test cricket record. Historical data suggests it could also give England its best chance in 15 years to reclaim the Ashes in Australia.

The Ashes is one of cricket’s fiercest rivalries and dates back to 1882, when England lost to Australia  for the first time on home soil.

So outraged were English cricket fans by the result that a newspaper carried a mock obituary of English cricket which stated: “the body will be cremated and the ashes taken to Australia”.

Since then, Australia and England have fought every two years to win “the Ashes” trophy, which is in fact  an 11cm tall terracotta urn.

English cricket’s death and resurrection since 1882 will now face its latest challenge: the 74th Ashes series across five Tests in Australia, starting on Friday in Perth.

But this England squad boasts a controversial style of Test cricket that has revolutionised Test cricket, not only in England but more broadly: “Bazball”.

Bazball is a  phrase coined after Brendon “Baz” McCullum was hired as England coach in mid-2022.

Bazball was initially shorthand for  a super-aggressive mindset, which went against England’s stereotypical defensive approach to Test cricket.

This high-risk, high-reward strategy has spurred England to some spectacular wins, but also brought about some disastrous defeats.

It’s not just blind aggressive cricket – it is a calculated playing style. It’s also a threat Australia should not underestimate, despite a remarkable 60 per cent win rate in the past 20 Ashes series (12 series wins compared to England’s six).

I have analysed historical data to show Bazball offers a genuine opportunity for England to regain the Ashes in Australia for the first time in 15 years.

Bazball’s primary strategy encourages England to bat with immense aggression.

After adopting this style of play, England’s Test cricket run rate has risen from 3.24 historically to nearly 4.86 runs per over (RPO) – a massive 50 per cent increase in scoring rate.

Scoring more quickly puts pressure on opposition bowlers and fielders. It also provides more time for England’s bowlers to take the 20 wickets needed for Test victory.

This reflects more of a Twenty20 cricket mentality, rather than the defensive and survival-first orthodoxy that had long dominated Test cricket.

Beyond its entertainment value, Bazball has also delivered tangible results, validating this mindset.

After McCullum’s appointment, England’s Test match win rate has surged from 39.2 per cent to 60.5 per cent – a 54 per cent relative improvement.

Before Bazball, England was winning fewer than two in every five Tests. Now they are consistently winning three or more in every five Tests.

Data show interesting patterns in Bazball’s effectiveness at changing the nature of Tests in critical moments, mostly when England bats in the second and fourth innings.

What is most extraordinary is what often happens in England’s fourth innings – historically Test cricket’s toughest batting challenge.

Since McCullum took over as coach, England’s run rate per over in fourth innings has risen by almost three runs, to 5.76 per over.

Previously, England had few victories when they were chasing a large total under pressure in the fourth innings. Now, the winning percentage has more than doubled (60 per cent in the Bazball era compared to 28.1 per cent historically).

This pattern is also evident in second innings, where England have scored nearly additional 90 runs on an average during the Bazball era.

The second innings of a game often works as a launchpad for consolidation and domination. Bazball’s sweet spot of 4.86 runs per over isn’t reckless – it’s the proven winning formula hidden in the data all along.

At this stage there is not enough evidence to draw statistical conclusions about the impact Bazball has had on England’s performance against Australia.

However, the drawn series in England in 2023 featured some interesting dynamics that might just be an indication of what to expect this time around.

The pattern was unmistakable: every time England went into full attack mode, scoring more than 4.8 runs per over, they mostly won. At Leeds, they chased down a target at an incredible 5.08 runs per over. At The Oval, they opened with a strong 5.17 runs per over to seal victory.

But when the scoring rate dropped below 4.3 runs per over, particularly at Birmingham and Lord’s, Australia triumphed.

The drawn Manchester Test might be the most tantalising glimpse of what’s to come. England scored a record 592 runs at a steep 5.49 runs per over, playing cricket that looked more like a Twenty20 than a Test match.

If it wasn’t for the rain, England would likely have won the series.

England is likely to replicate this fearless approach in Australia. The first match is likely to set the tone, with pitch conditions at Perth’s Optus Stadium likely to favour England, while Australia is  without two of its premier fast bowlers due to injuries.

England’s batters will have their work cut out – during the past five years, Australia has been the  most difficult country in the world to face fast bowling.

Despite this, the hosts might face something they’ve rarely encountered during this series: an England side that genuinely believes it can win down under.

Republished from The Conversation, 21 November 2025