ASEAN preference for resolute neutrality will attract increasing pushback from major foreign players who have less respect for the concept.
Determined neutrality and non-interference are the defining features of ASEAN. Some observers see this as a source of strength with its focus on common objectives rather than differences. Others see it as a source of weakness because it tolerates many diverse forms of governance.
ASEAN faces several challenges if it is to remain an essential part of the regional security architecture. Its preference for resolute neutrality will attract increasing pushback from major foreign players in the region, including invited ASEAN guests, who have less respect for the concept. Their intention is to use ASEAN as an adjunct tool of their own policy agendas for the region in ways that go against the neutrality that has defined the organisation.
The challenge is also much broader than the proposed tariff and sanctions regime foreshadowed by incoming US President Donald Trump. The modern network of global trade agreements enmeshes ASEAN partners, giving them greater power to avoid being carved out by US actions. Strategies that regional nations can adopt to counter trade protectionism start with a refusal to join the game and respond in kind. China has started on this path with the announcement of zero tariffs on goods coming from the global south.
However, there is a feeling among regional think tanks, including those from Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea and others, that the emerging environment is the most significant threat that ASEAN has ever experienced. The need to remain relevant, effective and if necessary, aggressively neutral in regard to its members, is a critical component of regional security architecture.
The more fundamental challenge to ASEAN comes from the desire of former colonial countries to re-establish their dominance in the region. For some, like France, it is a refusal to allow independence to proceed. For others like the UK, it’s a desire to re-assert a level of influence that has been eroded by the passage of time. The main purpose of the planned UK major naval exercise in the region for 2025 is to revive the ghost of past domination and influence.
For Australia, sometimes described as a sub-imperial power, it includes bullying smaller nations into the surrender of sovereignty over their foreign relations. The AUKUS nuclear submarine decision causes discomfort for what it says about Australia’s changing attitude to the region. The concerns are mitigated by the decades-long delay in delivery.
This revival of colonial attitudes was highlighted when French President Emanuel Macron surveyed the devastation of Cyclone Chido. He told angry residents they should be happy to be French citizens, as if that was sufficient compensation for the shortcomings in the struggling French emergency response.
These remnant colonial attitudes are rarely stated so boldly, but they sit behind the resurgence of European involvement in the ASEAN region. It is a hankering for past glory. These attitudes are a direct threat to the framework of determined neutrality that aspires to forge a future of inclusivity and resilience – one that will anchor peace and prosperity throughout Southeast Asia.
Colonialism and the bitter struggles to break free, are remembered by parents and grandparents. These are not abstract concepts, and although not often stated overtly, they underpin the common ASEAN experience.
The rejection of colonial legacies defines the experience of ASEAN members. The post-colonial world is the strength of ASEAN that takes the concept of determined neutrality beyond a refusal to interfere in the affairs of others to include a rejection of interference in their own affairs. The days of engineered coups and puppet governments are long past and not welcome back. ASEAN leans more favourably towards those major powers, like China and Indonesia, that understand and support this desire for genuine sovereign independence.
It suggests that ASEAN will need to become more aware and play a more active part of the security architecture of the region by pushing back against attempts to interfere with and manipulate the region. ASEAN members have no desire to return to colonial relationships.
The United States has always been a belligerent player in global trade, ever willing to rely on its own interpretations of rules. The application of US versions of global rules are a major hurdle to fair and equitable treatment of trade. These are the core issues which undermine economic security and lie at the heart of ASEAN discussions and aspirations.
ASEAN provides a choice by supporting the foundational framework of free trade in the region. China continues to lend its support for ASEAN’s collaborative ethos to reduce trade barriers.
China endorses ASEAN’s determined neutrality, offering support and assistance that is not dependent upon ASEAN countries adopting a single political system or ideology. Unlike the colonial approach which uses trade as a tool of exploitation, China’s Global Development Initiative and other programs already support the concept of determined neutrality.
Malaysia is advancing the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, a strategic long-term plan that aims to guide the region’s growth and prosperity over the next two decades and which does not rest on military solutions. Already, some Western nations see this as a threat to their objectives which see neutrality as an example of weakness.
In a strategic effort to leverage the experiences of notable regional figures, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is assembling a team of informal advisers like Singapore’s former foreign minister George Yeo and Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra to support his country’s upcoming chairmanship of ASEAN. Their experience provides the muscle for policy development and implementation.
China’s support for this determined neutrality is welcomed and includes participation in wide-ranging programs like the Belt and Road Initiative which is designed to boost economic security.
Some glues mix two components together to achieve better strength. The two reagents that set and strengthen the glue binding the security architecture of the ASEAN region are economic success and political independence. This common desire is the glue that holds ASEAN together gives it the strength to counter the forces aligning against it.
Daryl Guppy
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for mainland Chinese media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man". He is a former national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The views expressed here are his own.
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