Pearls and Irritations

In Asian media this week: New leader will aim to end crushing austerity. Plus: China unveils economic rescue package; Indonesia’s middle class is shrinking; Beijing-New Delhi ties key to Asia; Pope Francis wants to visit China; Thailand plans mass same-sex wedding party.

Within two days of being elected as Sri Lanka’s new president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake dissolved parliament and called national elections for 14 November.

The reason? His party holds only three seats in the 225-member parliament.

Dissanayake leads the Marxist-leaning National People’s Power coalition and he appointed a colleague, Harini Amarasuriya, as prime minister – Sri Lanka’s second female prime minister, after Sirimavo Bandaranaike.

The Diplomat, the Asian online newsmagazine, said Dissanayake’s victory over former president Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa came as Sri Lankans rejected the political old guard, whom they blamed for pushing the country into a dire economic crisis.

“Dissanayake’s first major challenge will be to act on his campaign promise to ease the crushing austerity measures imposed by his predecessor,” the magazine said.

India’s The Hindu newspaper said Dissanayake’s election was a new beginning of historical significance. The article, by University of Colombo political scientist Jayadeva Uyangoda, said there had been a dramatic shift in the class bases of political power.

“A privileged minority of Westernised elites had been defeated by a broad coalition of non-elite social forces.”

Despite the radical change, the election and the transfer of power were peaceful. A commentary in Sri Lanka’s Daily Mirror said the smooth power transfer from the establishment to its polar opposite would not have been possible in more than half the world’s countries.

The columnist, Ranga Jayasuriya, summed up the normality of the country’s mood: “During the past couple of days, Sri Lanka elected a left-leaning outsider as its 9^th Executive President and then went on to win a Test match in Galle.”

India’s The Statesman newspaper, however, ran an opinion piece saying the rise of Dissanayake’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna party had set off alarm bells throughout India’s strategic and diplomatic circles.

The article, by Indian political scientist Santosh Mathew, said the election marked the rise of a China-aligned force on India’s doorstep, threatening to push New Delhi into a strategic corner.

“Behind the populist rhetoric lies a complex history and set of alliances that could tilt the region’s balance in China’s favour, undermining India’s security and geopolitical influence,” the article said.

But Beijing’s official Global Times newspaper said India’s expressed concerns exposed its hegemonic mindset.

“India has long viewed South Asia as its sphere of influence,” the paper said. “However, such a hegemonic mindset does not align with the interests and development needs of South Asian countries.”

The story referred to Dissanayake as Marxist.

Unexpected Politburo meeting vows to save distressed private economy

Beijing this week announced a raft of financial measures to boost liquidity and lower borrowing costs for individuals and companies.

A report in Singapore’s The Straits Times said the changes included cuts to a key policy rate and existing mortgage rates, reductions in banks’ cash reserve requirements, lower deposits for second homes and more liquidity for the stock market.

The story said the moves came as strong deflationary pressures threatened to put the country’s 5% growth target out of reach. The size of the policy salvo exceeded expectations, the paper said.

The official China Daily newspaper detailed the changes and described them as a potent combination of monetary-easing measures. They were aimed at anchoring market confidence and underpinning economic recovery.

The measures included: a 0.5% point cut in the banks’ cash requirement, freeing up $US142.2 billion for new lending; a 0.2 percentage point reduction in the central banks’ seven-day reverse repo rate (from 1.7% to 1.5%); a 0.5 percentage point cut in average existing mortgage rates; and a cut in the minimum mortgage deposit on second homes, from 25% to 15%.

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post carried a report of a readout from what it said was an unexpected Politburo meeting earlier in the week. The meeting of the top decision-making body was chaired by President Xi Jinping.

The story said China had vowed to save the private economy, stabilise the property sector and undertake necessary fiscal expenditure.

“It is necessary to look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly,” the readout said. “Face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and effectively enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency to do a good job in economic work.”

It said Xi issued a rallying call to help the private sector and for officials to mobilise to help revive the economy.

In a separate story, SCMP said the measures represented the boldest stock market rescue package since the 2015 Chinese market crash.

It quoted Laura Wang, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, as telling clients the measures were an “absolute positive”.

Middle-income decline a threat to development

A key goal of developing economies is to increase the size, wealth and buying power of the middle class.

In Indonesia, however, the middle class is shrinking, according to an analytical piece in The Jakarta Post.

“This drop is not merely a statistical figure,” says the article, written by statisticians Lili Retnosari and Nuri Taufiq. “[It is] a serious alarm for the national economy, which relies heavily on the purchasing power and contributions of the middle class.”

Indonesia now counts as middle class some 47.85 million people, 17.13% of the total population of 280 million. The proportion last year was 17.44%. Five years ago, it was 21.45%.

The proportion of middle-class consumption, relative to total spending, has been declining since 2019.

The economic impact of the COVID pandemic is one of the main causes. And rising prices, especially of food and energy, have eroded middle-class spending.

The proportion of middle-class workers in formal employment has also been declining, with many shifting to the informal sector, where income is lcertain and protection is minimal.

“Strengthening the purchasing power of the middle class has become an urgent priority,” the article says.

“A healthy middle class, with strong purchasing power, will provide a solid foundation for national economic stability.

“Without adequate support, a decline in the middle class will not only impact domestic consumption but also hinder Indonesia’s potential to achieve more ambitious development targets.”

In multi-polar world, Asia will be also multi-polar

The relationship between New Delhi and Beijing is central to the future of Asia – and to the wider global order, says Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister.

Asia is at the cutting edge of global change and India is helping lead changes in Asia, he told an Asia Society function in New York this week. India’s The Statesman newspaper reported that Jaishankar said change was stretching the fabric of the global order.

“The India-China relationship is key to the future of Asia,” he said. “If the world is to be multi-polar, Asia has to be multi-polar.”

The Indian Express newspaper reported Jaishankar as saying the India-China relationship was significantly disturbed, with the main issue being patrolling up to the Line of Actual Control on the border between the two countries.

He said India had a difficult history with China, including the border war in 1962.

Jaishankar said advancing the broader relationship would be hard unless both sides could restore peace on the border, the paper reported.

Tension between the two countries will increase next year, when India takes the presidency of the Quad – the Indo-Pacific grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia. The Quad met in the US this week.

China’s official Global Times newspaper quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian as saying the Quad was an American tool to contain China and perpetuate US hegemony.

The US claimed the Quad did not target China, the paper said. But it quoted Lin as saying: “The US is lying through its teeth.”

The Hindu newspaper said this week’s Quad announcements of initiatives aimed at countering China’s actions in the South China Sea would raise Beijing’s ire.

But it noted India remained hesitant about joining the other nations in military actions in the contested waters. India’s presidency of the Quad would show whether its reluctance might be overcome.

Pope wants to shine spotlight on Chinese Catholics

Pope Francis this month conducted an 11-day tour of four Asia-Pacific nations – Papua New Guinea, Timor Leste, Indonesia and Singapore. Now he wants to visit China.

He believes China, despite its Communist Government, is experiencing a religious resurgence.

“China is a promise and a hope for the Church,” he said on his way back to Rome from Singapore. “I would love to visit China.”

An article in ucanews.com, the Asian Catholic news site, says China has a small but thriving Christian community — with an estimated 10 million Catholics — alongside the world’s largest Buddhist population, a thriving Daoist community and an expanding Muslim community.

Sino-Vatican relations are governed by an accord, signed in 2018, giving both parties a say in appointing Catholic bishops in China. It has been renewed twice and is due for renewal again next month.

Previously, Chinese religious affairs officials had appointed bishops, through a body called the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, without the Vatican’s consent.

The ucanews article is a summary history of Sino-Vatican relations since 1949, written by Jonathan Y. Tan, a Malaysian-born academic now working in the US. It says that under changes authorised by the late John Paul II there is little difference between the underground Catholic Church and the government’s official body.

Tan says it seems both parties are keen on renewing the accord.

He says: “Clearly Pope Francis wishes not only to encourage and empower Chinese Catholics as they thrive and grow but also to shine a spotlight on China as an exemplar for the Church in Europe and North America, where a small Catholic minority can flourish amidst the challenges of official secularism and religious diversity and plurality.”

#lovewins PM says of new marriage law

January 22 will see a mass wedding in Thailand. This is the day when the country’s new marriage equality law will allow same-sex marriages.

Waaddao Anne Chumaporn, the founder of Bangkok Pride, plans to organise a wedding for more than 1000 LGBTQ couples.

King Maha Vajiralongkorn has given royal assent to the law, which was passed in June and published in the Royal Gazette on Tuesday, making Thailand the first Southeast Asian country to recognise same-sex marriage (and the third jurisdiction in Asia, after Nepal and Taiwan). It will take effect after 120 days – on January 22.

The law uses gender-neutral terms in place of “men”, “women”, “husbands” and “wives”, Bangkok Post reports. It also grants adoption and inheritance rights to same-sex couples.

“This is a monumental step forward for human rights in Thailand,” Waaddao said.

Singapore’s The Straits Times said Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra posted a message “for everyone’s love” on social media platform X. She used the hashtag “lovewins”.