Taiwan: Is reunification with China a dead issue?

Oct 14, 2024
The Chinese flag and the Taiwanese flag are both made from fabric patterns. Conceptual image depicting China's force against Taiwan. Basemap and background concept. Double exposure hologram.

On January 13 this year, Taiwan, amid high hopes in the ruling party, held its quadrennial presidential/vice presidential/legislative election. It was expected to be a very consequential election. Taiwan’s future was said to be at stake.

Post-election, the foreign media and Taiwan’s press alike proclaimed that the liberal, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidential election three times in a row. This was unprecedented. Thus, it was said the pro-unification, conservative Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) was on the skids. China, which opposed Lai Ching-te, the DPP’s candidate for president who won, according to the news, also suffered a big setback.

Thus, Taiwan’s reunification with China seemed a dead issue.

Was this true? There are several caveats worth mentioning. Listed below are 20 reasons why we might be skeptical:

First, the Western, liberal media is anti-China and takes almost every opportunity to characterise China as not doing well and/or is suffering from foreign policy and other losses. Likewise for Taiwan’s media, which is dominated by the DPP.

Second, the DPP did not exactly win three elections in a row. Two “mid-term” elections were held during President Tsai’s tenure (2016-2024). The DPP lost both (one that focused excessively, said voters, on the rights of LGBT’s while the other saw Tsai overreach in making China an existential enemy thus appearing to want conflict).

Third, the DPP lost the legislative part of the January 2024 election. The KMT won more seats. Further, the KMT was supported by former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, whose party has 8 seats. The two handily control Taiwan’s legislature.

Fourth, the situation of the two major parties controlling different branches of government means divided government and that spells chaos and paralysis in politics, and more. This was the case during the Chen Shui-bian presidency (2000 -2008). It is evident now.

Fifth, Lai Ching-te won the presidential vote over Hou You-yi, the KMT’s candidate because Lai had an edge in good looks, charisma, and experience in holding national executive and legislative offices. In addition, Hou’s campaign suffered from internal disorder during the campaign.

Sixth, division between the executive and legislative parts of government means cooperation and moderate policies are a sine qua non to doing business. President Lai recognised this after the election. Moderation clearly means giving less emphasis to both independence and unification. The KMT has argued for good relations with China to avoid war while keeping open the possibility of unification at some future date; this is a more moderate policy. Taiwan’s residents appear to accept this.

Seventh, the DPP’s pitch for Taiwan’s independence is based largely on the fact that residents’ national identity favours Taiwan as opposed to both Taiwan and China, or China alone. This has been trending for some time and is natural given most people in Taiwan were not born in mainland China or educated there. However, polls show residents do not favor independence (or unification) over the status quo when asked about Taiwan’s future.

Eighth, Taiwan’s recent election history as well as its political party system indicate it has a two-party or two-party dominant system. It has had third parties, but they have not had lasting influence—until now. It is expected the two-party system will ultimately prevail. Yet opinion polls taken in Taiwan indicate waning support for the two major parties. The dichotomy between reunification and independence rests on two parties.

Ninth, Taiwan has increased markedly its military spending in recent years. This started during the Tsai administration and continues in the Lai presidency. It is aimed at China, which is Taiwan’s only enemy, and assumes the goal of an independent Taiwan. However, Taiwan has no chance of coping with China’s huge advantage in size, population and every weapon and weapon system available. China will win a war with Taiwan, likely in a matter of hours. Taiwan’s only hope is that the United States will intervene. Taiwan cannot count on any other country playing any role.

Tenth, the U.S. pledges to protect Taiwan have recently become viewed with greater uncertainty.

Eleventh, early on the Biden administration declared China an existential enemy and tried to build a global alliance of democratic nations of the world allied against the China-led authoritarian countries. Europe was not enthusiastic, like many other democratic nations. Most countries did not want to alienate China for economic reasons—China being the largest trading country in the world. (120 countries find China their biggest trading partner, double America). President Biden then tried to construct an Asian NATO to contain China. That has not succeeded.

Twelfth, in 2022 President Biden cozied up to President Xi at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. This hurt the DPP, which lost the mid-term election in Taiwan at the time.

Thirteenth, The Biden administration pressured Taiwan’s eminent Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation to build a chip factory in Arizona. This crushed President Tsai’s idea of a “silicon shield” that guarded Taiwan. The media and pundits in Taiwan spoke of betrayal by the Biden administration.

Fourteenth, Kamala Harris has pledged, if she wins election next month, she will continue the Biden agenda in foreign policy. Former president Trump has cited Taiwan for an imbalance in trade unfavourable to the United States. Regardless of who wins, Taiwan cannot likely expect a more reliable America.

Fifteenth, Taiwan’s leaders, pundits and residents alike see China as still a fast-rising power, unlike the western media. In fact, China’s economy measured by growth of its GDP (not withstanding America’s sanctions and other efforts to hurt China) is almost double the U.S., is nearly five times the E.U, and almost ten-fold Japan. China has also made big strides in military power.

Sixteenth, meanwhile America’s status as a world power has declined. China leads the U.S. in foreign exchange. It is ahead in important facets of technology: quantum computers, robotics, clean energy (producing more clean energy in 2023 than the U.S. ever), and much more. It matches and will soon surpass America in artificial intelligence. It bests the U.S. in scientific paper and patents. It graduates six to eight times the number of PhDs in STEM fields.

Seventeenth, America’s huge debt is a serious obstacle to Washington playing the role it has assumed since World War II in global finance. Even the dollar as the international currency is being challenged by the BRICS countries. Paying the interest on the huge national debt means the U.S. cannot easily spend more on research and development or the military.

Eighteenth, the U.S. reputation as the world’s democratic model is questioned. The Economist Intelligence Unit classifies the U.S. as a “flawed democracy” that has declined in world ranking in the last three years. A number of countries have criticised the American government for its decline of rule by law, a biased media, the intelligence and law enforcement agencies taking sides in party politics, and more.

Nineteenth, recently American foreign policy has not enjoyed broad support around the world as in the past. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan engendered a severe loss of face for Washington and its recovery has been slow.

Twentieth, and last, the international system established and sustained by the United States since World War II is under question, Doyens Richard Haass, former president of the Foreign Policy Association in his book The World in Disarray states that the ability of the U.S. to support it has failed. Henry Kissinger seconds this view. China offers a different system, one based on financial and technology power and leadership, which was the basis of China leading East Asia in the past. Many national leaders fancy a system such as this compared to one based on military power.

In conclusion, assuming there is no war between the U.S. and China, which some experts opine the U.S. will not win, or if Russia joins China, nobody will win, the issue of Taiwan becoming independent or unifying with China will probably be left to later to decide. Currently Taiwan does not want a war. Neither does China. America’s “strategic ambiguity” policy indicates it does not either.

President Xi has stated reunification must happen by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Considering time is on China’s side and as some pundits say, America is in a historical phase of a dark ages and China is experiencing a renaissance, China’s position on reunification will in the future look more promising than now.

Share and Enjoy !