The loss of global influence by the United States is China’s gain
Sep 11, 2024
The world doesn’t see an “indispensable nation” in America, only one that is ‘dysfunctional at home and pursuing naked self-interest abroad’
Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China, and his State Department colleague Jose Fernandez think the United States has created a successful playbook to help other countries resist China’s economic coercion. So say two representatives of a nation which has imposed two-thirds of the world’s total number of sanctions with 60% of low-income countries being so targeted. Even the International Criminal Court has been on its hit list.
Recommended readings: “America is losing Southeast Asia: Why US allies in the region are turning toward China.” That’s the title of an essay in the current edition of Foreign Affairs.
“When many Southeast Asians look at the United States now, they see a country that is dysfunctional at home and pushing a nakedly self-interested agenda abroad,” it said.
“Chinese investments are generally welcomed in Southeast Asia … The United States should avoid overstating its convergence with Asian partners. Stressing the convergence narrative suggests, at best, that Washington lacks an awareness of the United States’ declining position in Southeast Asia and, at worst, that Southeast Asia is being overlooked in US foreign policy.”
As has been widely reported, the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute this year found 50.5% of respondents across Asean countries chose “strategic alignment” with China against 49.5% for the US. In 2020, it was 50.2% for the US and 49.8% for China.
The month before, the same premier US foreign policy journal ran another essay with a similar title: “America is losing the Arab world and China is reaping the benefits.” It must be easy writing headlines for the publication.
“Few Arab leaders now want to be seen openly cooperating with Washington, given the sharp rise in anti-American sentiment among the populations they rule,” it said, mostly because of the brutal war in Gaza.
“In nine of the 10 countries in which Arab Barometer asked about US favourability in 2021, at least a third of all respondents said that they held a favourable view of the United States. In four out of the five countries surveyed between December 2023 and March 2024, however, fewer than a third viewed the United States favourably.”
The US loss has been China’s gain: “Arab citizens’ views of China have warmed in our recent surveys, reversing a half-decade trend of weakening support for China in the Arab world.”
After Southeast Asia and the Middle East, what about Africa? It’s hardly a contest there on the continent.
More than 50 African leaders just gathered in Beijing for a summit that showcased their ever closer ties. (There are 54 countries in Africa.) Beijing has pledged nearly US$51 billion in aid and investment over three years to the continent. It will exempt import tariffs from 33 African nations and expand their access to the Chinese domestic market.
The ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation included influential leaders such as Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and William Ruto of Kenya. President Xi Jinping has travelled to Africa five times since entering office in 2012. No US president has set foot on the continent since Barack Obama. Nowadays, when African nations need investment funding, they most likely go to China first.
It’s true that Western allies have mostly fallen in line with the US since the Ukraine war. Australia has mortgaged its future on the costly multi-generational AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal it can ill afford. From Huawei to electric cars, Canada has faithfully followed Washington’s blacklist for sanctions and tariffs.
NATO countries have recommitted to spending 2% of GDP on the military, with Germany already exceeding that target. But war weariness, immigration, rising costs of living and falling living standards have given rise to the far-right and the far-left, not to mention Donald Trump and the Republican far-right. These are symptoms of the collapsing post-war US-led liberal international order.
It seems Burns and Fernandez have been drinking too much of their own Kool-Aid.
Republished from South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Edition, September 08, 2024
Alex Lo has been a Post columnist since 2012, covering major issues affecting Hong Kong and the rest of China. A journalist for 25 years, he has worked for various publications in Hong Kong and Toronto as a news reporter and editor. He has also lectured in journalism at the University of Hong Kong.
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