The Trump assassination attempt: An inevitable result of toxic polarisation?
Jul 16, 2024
It is ironic that a past and would be President who has been a strong supporter of 2nd Amendment freedoms to own assault rifles was nearly killed by one.
It is ironic that a past and would be President who has been a strong supporter of 2nd Amendment freedoms to own assault rifles was nearly killed by one. The AR-15 developed for civilians by the arms industry to mimic the US Army’s M-16 was a result of Congressional failure to extend the federal assault weapon ban. Gun control is a Democrat issue and bitterly opposed by Republicans. Along with Race and Immigration, gun control is the issue most starkly dividing the parties. So it is a symbol of the Great Polarisation.
We will probably never know what motivated the shooter – he is in no position to answer questions. But there can be no doubt that the rapidly increasing polarisation in American politics and society made such an event more likely.
A corollary of polarisation is a decline in trust in your fellow citizen and the institutions that bring you together. Trust has nosedived in the US since 2000. Gallup has recently published (Confidence in Institutions; Historical Trends) a compilation of answers to the same polling questions about confidence in institutions since 2000. Congress has fared worst. Only 8% of Americans trust Congress “Quite a lot or a Great deal” – down from an already depressing 24% in 2000. In other words a 57% plummet in trust in one of the three key institutions of American governance. The Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS) fared a little better – more than one in five have quite a lot or a great deal of confidence in SCOTUS but even that is down by 43%. The Presidency is also only highly trusted by 26% of the population – on par with the Supreme Court but still down by 38% over the past quarter of a century.
This shooting is a symptom of polarisation and will further deepen it. It is a cry of despair that the institutions that govern America cannot be trusted to do their job. The predictable conspiracy theories that this was either an attack orchestrated by Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or that it was a false flag operation organised by the Republicans are already running hot on Truth Social and X. I have no confidence that this shooting will cause a national reset – an embracing of the Union and a return to civil discourse. History is against it. Nick Bryant in his brilliant The Forever War “explains how hate, divisiveness and paranoia … are a core part of America’s story – insurrections, massacres and civil disturbances (and assassinations)” are part of the fabric of American history and society. Now is one of those times when America’s better angels are being wrestled to the ground.
What worries me is the likely impact on Trump and the consequences for US policy. The Economist’s election model already gives Trump a 3 in 4 chance of winning the election. This shooting has to somewhat increase that chance.
I am concerned that Trump has already shown considerable signs of what Lord David Owen, Former British Foreign Secretary and research neurologist has named the “hubris syndrome” and that surviving an assassination attempt will increase his messianic tendencies. In an article in the medical journal Brain (May 2009), Owen and Jonathan Davidson, a psychiatrist, listed a number of characteristics of the “hubris syndrome” including:
- A narcissistic propensity to see the world primarily as an arena in which they can exercise power and seek glory rather than a place with problems that need a pragmatic and non-self-referential approach.
- A predisposition to take actions to enhance their image
- A disproportionate concern with image and presentation
- A messianic manner of talking about what they are doing
- An identification of themselves with the state to the extent that they regard the outlook and interests of the two as identical
- A tendency to talk of themselves in the third person
- Excessive confidence in their own judgement and contempt for the advice or criticism of others
- Exaggerated self belief
- A belief that rather than being accountable to the mundane court of colleagues or public opinion, the real court they answer to is History or God
- An unshakeable belief they will be vindicated in court.
- Restlessness, recklessness and impulsiveness…
The consequences can be a wooden headed refusal to accept advice, consider inconvenient facts and change course.
Trump has already signalled an intention to rid the career public service of people who stand in his way. He has demonstrated his contempt for the Cabinet, Military and White House staff in his first term who tried to constrain him or force him to consider unpleasant facts (just think of his reluctance to accept advice on COVID or on Climate Science).
His half formed suggestions on economic policy are deeply concerning. Cutting or even abolishing income taxes to be funded by raising tariffs, a deep unconcern for debt, and a distaste for an independent Federal Reserve Bank – hinting that it should come under closer Congressional oversight. That all sounds like a recipe for re-igniting inflation and sharing the pain with the rest of the world.
But it is in Europe that there will be the most immediate worry. I see him sending his envoys to Europe while he is waiting to assume the Presidency with the following packages:
- To Putin: I will give you the parts of the Donbas region you have occupied as Russian territory, plus confirming Russian sovereignty over Crimea. I will ban Ukraine from NATO and guarantee its neutrality. In turn Russia should pull out of the parts of Northern Ukraine around Kharkiv that it has occupied. Cease fire while the details are agreed and I will immediately stop all military support for Ukraine.
- To NATO: stop support for Ukrainian resistance and its accession to NATO membership. If you don’t the US will pull out of NATO and take Hungary with it.
- To Orban: get ready to pull out of the EU and have a free trade deal and economic support from the US. Prepare to pull out of NATO.
- To Zelensky: Cease fire, abandon hopes of entering NATO and EU, resign and set up an inquiry into corruption with membership agreed by the US. Cede large elements of Russian speaking Donbas and all of Crimea to Russia. The US will fund a massive economic rebuilding package.
I hope I am wrong and that he will be talked out of this sort of betrayal. But above all I hope that Biden steps down and anoints an electable successor. France gives us hope that citizens can be motivated to vote if they fear the alternative above all.
But hope is not enough – we need to be thinking through all the contingencies for coping with a Trump led US while achieving our goals on climate change and a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
Roger was the longest-serving disabled Departmental Secretary (of Environment and Heritage) in the history of the APS – there have only been two since 1901. He contracted polio in 1948 and uses a wheelchair, leg braces and crutches.
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