Tomahawk missiles over Indonesia? No worries, they're only passing by
Tomahawk missiles over Indonesia? No worries, they're only passing by
Duncan Graham

Tomahawk missiles over Indonesia? No worries, they're only passing by

In the early 1960s, the then USSR started building missile sites in Cuba, near enough to Florida forendurance swimmers. This almost led to the Cold War turning flaming hot. Now Australia is to buy more than 200 US missiles and stage them close to Indonesia.

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The Arafura Sea is too wide to swim, but the subsonic Tomahawks capable of carrying 450 kg of conventional explosives (or, Absit! nuclear warheads with vastly more destructive power) can clear the distance in under 30 minutes.

Whether fired from land or sea (RAN destroyers or submarines), theyll most likely head north-west, atop the worlds fourth most populous nation.

Weupset the neighbours in September 2021 when announcing AUKUS. The then PM Scott Morrison allegedly toldPresident Joko Jokowi Widodo only after Joe Biden had spoken.

Last year PM Anthony Albanesesaid Australias relationship with Indonesia is one of our most important, ever-deepened by the strategic and economic interests that we share. Though not matters of defence.

Are we taking Jakarta for granted again? If so, more distrust is likely.Lowy Institute surveysshow a third of Indonesians see Australia as a security threat.

Should words turn to launches, the missiles would presumably be seeking warships in the contested waters of the South China Sea, which Indonesia calls the Natuna Sea. (The Chinese mainland is beyond range).

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroyreportedly saidthe Tomahawks would contribute to maintaining a strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region. Courtesy of Stanley Kubricks_Dr Strangelove,_Conroy added: Only by deterrence can we promote strategic balance in our region and promote peace and stability as well.

This isnt just a $1.3 billion trade deal. The US State Department reckons the sale is vital to the US national interest to assist our ally in developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defence capability. If so, why does Australia have to buy?

The other nations with Tomahawks are the UK andJapan.

Last month Australias mainstream media got in a tizz when aerial photos showed a RAAF Poseidon flying over a Chinese surveillance ship heading towards Queensland. This washeadlined as an encounter though other reports used the less-provocative terms spotted and sighted.

TheABC reported a spy ship monitoring joint military exercises (Talisman Sabre war games) with the US. There have been no reports of Chinese sailors doing anything more aggressive than peering over satellite feeds and squinting through binoculars from outside our territorial waters.

That didnt stop Defence officials implying this was something decent folks dont do,describingthe watching as an unfriendly and provocative act.

A useful phrase for Indonesias Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to use should the Republics citizens spot killer missiles streaking above their archipelago.

Another reason for the absence of angry statements and ambassador recalls is because Indonesian politicians have their eyes on the ground, specifically the 2024 general and presidential elections.

Foreign affairs just smoulder on the edges of the campaign where the primary heat sources are domestic issues.

Before being made the first woman Foreign Minister in 2014, Retno was ambassador to the Netherlands where shed earlier been a student. Her President has shown little interest in her portfolio, so shes largely been left alone.

Three big issues shes faced and failed to either resolve or make any impression remain - Myanmar, the South China Sea disputes and AUKUS.

Less than six months from the February poll theres negligible speculation about the FMs replacement. In the Indonesian system, ministerial appointments can be made from civil society. Retno, 60, is a career diplomat. Shes declined repeated requests for an interview.

Soon after her appointment she spoke out againstacademic chargesof Indonesias narrow nationalist-tinged discontinuity and unpredictability in foreign policy.

Sherespondedthat Indonesia is recognised by outsiders for its successes in democracy, development and stability. But no mention of pacts and accords with other nations because of the policy of non-interference.

As an aside, Indonesia now has many more toll roads, ports and airfields, and is[economically stable](#:~:text=Download PDF-,Summary,is expected to average 4.2%.). But the boast about democracy is hollow. The US_Journal of Democracy_reported that:

Under (Jokowis) tenure, free elections have been threatened, civil liberties have declined, corruption fighters and legislative checks weakened, and the armed forces role in civilian affairs has grown.

After Morrison called his counterpart to say, BTW something I meant to mention , Jokowi was reportedas repeatedly and forcefully raising concerns with the then-PM.

Retno addedher country was worried about the increasing tension between major countries and the possibility of a cold war. What we all don’t want is the possibility of an increasing arms race and power projection in the region.

But thats whats happening with the Tomahawks. So far any outrage has been contained. To add to the puzzlement Jokowi neutered his FM courtesy of the New Straits Times__:

We should view the Quad and AUKUS as partners, and not competitors … ASEAN aims to make the region a stable and peaceful one.

(The Quad is a security talkfest that doesnt involve Indonesia. It started in 2007, was killed off a year later by PM Kevin Rudd, and was reborn in 2017. Members are Australia, the US, India and Japan.)

A decade ago PM Julia Gillard released the White Paper_Australia in the Asian Century._ It stressed that Australias future prosperity and security are inextricably linked to what happens in the region.

That was then. What happens now in the region is being determined in another hemisphere. As veteran journalist John Pilger, 83,has written:

In my lifetime, the US has overthrown or attempted to overthrow more than 50 governments, mostly democracies. It has interfered in democratic elections in 30 countries.

Indonesias next President and FM might want to ask some tougher questions about AUKUS, Tomahawks and whatever is next on Australias Washington shopping list.

Duncan Graham

Duncan Graham has been a journalist for more than 40 years in print, radio and TV. He is the author of People Next Door (UWA Press). He is now writing for the English language media in Indonesia from within Indonesia. Duncan Graham has an MPhil degree, a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He lives in East Java.