Trump’s election victory is not the momentous or unexpected event many have made it out to be. It is, however, a sure sign of a slowly decaying society where frustration, anger and bewilderment are at epidemic proportions.
The unavoidable question is: how has this man managed to get re-elected President of the United States?
After all this is the man twice-impeached as president, who rejected the result of the previous election. He is known to have repeatedly lied to the electorate before, during and since his first presidential term. This is a man whose business dealings have long been under a cloud, and is widely accused of deception, abuse of power and sexual misconduct.
Some have tried to explain the outcome by highlighting the lacklustre performance of Kamala Harris’ presidential run. There is some truth to this.
Her campaign generated a good deal of enthusiasm among the Democrat faithful, attracted large rallies, and was a marvel of money raising. But when it came to issues troubling many Americans, notably the economy and immigration, and in the case of a vocal minority the Administration’s fulsome support for Israel brutal assault on Gaza and now Lebanon, she had precious little to say.
The problem with this explanation of the election result is that Trump’s policy agenda was also paper thin. Apart from his constant rantings about the evils of immigration and his plans for mass deportations, his economic and foreign policy agenda was fuzzy to say the least.
The vote for Trump, aside from his army of ardent supporters, cannot be understood as knowing endorsement of his plans or approval of the man’s vulgarity.
Trump’s victory expresses first and foremost a visceral disenchantment with the political and economic elites that have prospered while those at the lower rungs of the ladder struggle to keep body and soul together.
The latest U.S. Census Bureau and food security reports show that in 2023, 42.8 million Americans lived in poverty and 47.4 million lived in households experiencing food insecurity.
The Biden years may have brought modest levels of economic growth and lower levels of unemployment, but for many these gains were offset by rising living expenses and wages unable to keep up. A 2023 survey found that 78 percent of people across America lived pay cheque to pay cheque, with many just one emergency from living in poverty.
The reason behind Trump’s electoral appeal for a growing number of Black and Hispanic voters is not hard to discover. Food insecurity for Black and Hispanic households is more than double the rate for white non-Hispanic households.
And with these economically anxious times comes the knowledge that the rich are getting richer. The United States exhibits wider disparities of wealth than any other major developed economy.
In 2020, only one American had a net worth of more than $100 billion. Four years later there were ten centi-billionaires. Over the four years, the combined wealth of these 10 Americans had grown by 88 per cent to $5.5 trillion.
Over the past three decades, America’s most affluent families have substantially added to their net worth, whereas those at the bottom have seen the value of their debts exceed the value of their assets. The richest 5 per cent of Americans now own two-thirds of the nation’s wealth.
When it comes to African Americans their life expectations are even bleaker. Incarceration rates tell a horrifying story. Though Black Americans make up 13 per cent of the total population, they account for 37 percent of those incarcerated and nearly half (48.3%) of life and virtual life-sentenced individuals across the country. The number of those arrested in 2018 stood at 2.8 million, more than twice the arrest rate for white Americans
Little surprise then that a large swathe of the American public, especially the disadvantaged and discriminated, should be increasingly distrustful of powerful institutions. A succession of surveys point to a steady loss of public confidence in the political class and news media.
The Trump phenomenon is in part a reflection of this long-term trend – an attempt to capture the growing tide of public resentment and turn it into a vote winning strategy.
But the ecstasy of victory will be short-lived, while the agony that comes from the decline and fall of the American dream will prove enduring.
Nor is it just America’s agony, it is the world’s agony. For this is an America that has yet to reconcile itself to its decline.
There is little to suggest that the second Trump Administration will be any more adept than its predecessors at adapting to the profound economic and geopolitical transformation now under way.
Asia’s reemergence as a pillar of the global economy now encompasses much more than China. In 2023, China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam averaged GDP growth rates of between 5.0 and 6.5 per cent, suggesting that the trend of recent years has still to run its course.
The contrasting performance of the US economy is just as striking. In 2000, the US share of the world’s total GDP (based on PPP) stood at 24 per cent. This declined to just over 20 per cent in 2010. By 2018, it was a little over 15 per cent, and currently sits at just under 15 per cent.
And we now see the rising challenge posed by China to the supremacy of the US dollar – a challenge that is gathering pace with active support from Russia and leading economies of the Global South. It is the dollar’s supremacy, we should not forget, that has been the keystone of US global hegemony.
The confidence which economic players have invested in the US dollar since the 1940s is beginning to erode. A key contributing factor is the exponential growth of US public debt. In 2023, it reached more than $33.4 trillion, nine times the country’s debt in 1990.
Hardly any mention was made of this looming challenge to US economic dominance in the course of the election campaign. There is no reason to think that any of the economic measures to be introduced by the incoming Trump Administration, including the continuing use of tariffs and sanctions against adversaries, will arrest, let alone reverse, these long-term trends.
The steady decline of US hegemonic power is equally evident when it comes to the projection of military power. Technological prowess and high levels of military spending culminating in the staggering $1.94 trillion in budgetary resources available to the Department of Defence in FY2024 do not easily translate into military victory or political control.
The costly war on terror, the disastrous war in Iraq, the protracted and punishing conflict in Afghanistan, the unholy mess in Libya and Syria, and the unrewarding flexing of muscle against Iran via its proxy Israel, all testify to the fragility of US power.
Trump is thought by some to be less likely to engage in or support distant military expeditions and more inclined to demote the importance of military alliances. It remains to be seen, however, how much of this will come to pass.
It is conceivable that a Trump administration will make some effort to bring the Ukraine war to an end. But even if agreement is reached on some kind of ceasefire in 2025, it does not follow that NATO’s steadfast advance to Russia’s doorstep will be curtailed, let alone reversed.
The upshot of all this is that wild promises to ‘make America great again’ are likely to distract the United States from addressing the core question of our time. Is the United States prepared to accept that its unchallenged economic and military dominance is coming to an end?
Failure to face up to that reality will simply prolong and heighten the agony for the United States as for the rest of the world.
Joseph Camilleri is Emeritus Professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne, a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences, Convener of Conversation at the Crossroads, and Co-Convener of SHAPE (Saving Humanity and Planet Earth)
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