Trump’s Greenland for Odessa deal

Jan 30, 2025
An American flag pin placed on Greenland on a world map, highlighting the geopolitical relationship and potential US interests in the Arctic region. H Contributor: Rokas Tenys / Alamy Stock Photo Image ID: 2S4MAWW

In late February 2022, I was walking on a street in Irkutsk (in the middle of Russian Siberia) when I met a former female student of mine who had just come from her work office. She was upset by the invasion of Ukraine but even more so by the attitude of some women in the office. The main topic of discussion was speculation on “how many new provinces we will get”.

In my own discussions on the invasion I managed to condemn it and often – but not always – found that people agreed with me that one country should not simply try to take over another. So, there was an element of guilt amongst many Russians. But, following Donald Trump’s demands on Greenland I doubt my own conversations would again go the same way!

While there is significant censorship in Russia, many individual Russians will simply not understand why Russia is being condemned for its invasion and annexation of Ukrainian land when the United States is making similar demands on Greenland and Panama. While some Westerners might claim that this is typical Trump negotiating rhetoric, Vladimir Putin and those around him will be giving thanks to Trump for assisting their propaganda about taking over the territory of another country in order to bolster security.

Historians may see Trump’s comments as the almost final nail in the coffin for Odessa, the last significant city on the Black Sea that Ukraine still controls, with real access to that sea and its trade routes. Russian forces in southern Ukraine are still several hundred kilometres from Transnistria, the Russian orientated breakaway province from Moldova, and Odessa stands between Russian forces in Kherson province and Transnistria. As things currently stand in the fighting, Russian forces would not have the power to take control of Odessa and then go onto Transnistria to completely cut of the remainder of Ukraine from the Black Sea.

However, whatever the shorter-term results of Trump’s efforts to “end the war”, Russian nationalists and the women in the office of my former student will feel that in the longer-term Odessa should be taken – additionally because it is something that the United States would do if given the chance!

Trump may feel that he can cut-a-deal with Vladimir Putin to stop the fighting and save Odessa, but there are limits to Putin’s power. Putin was able to push his Security Council into accepting the “special military operation” against Ukraine because they saw a certain sense to it. It would have been a completely different matter if Putin had suggested returning Crimea to Ukraine — his time in power would have been very limited because it would have been seen as a betrayal of Russian national interests!

What Trump, and many of those around him, do not understand is that successful – and I mean, long time in power – dictators like Putin, Mao Zedong, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Josef Stalin and Kemal Ataturk are actually long-serving because they do take notice of the views of the population — including the sort expressed in the office of my former student. They do not simply do deals with foreign leaders because they have some “personal connection”.

 

I have lived and worked in both Russia and China. My book,”PUTIN and his Lieutenants compared to: Mao, Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Ataturk: can be purchased in e-book form on Amazon.

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