Unsuccessful asylum seekers now exceed those at primary and AAT stages
Sep 7, 2024
As has been the case every month since around 2015-16, the number of asylum seekers in Australia continued to set records, reaching 116,389 at end July 2024. The total number refused at both the primary level and at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT), but not departed, is now a record of 43,499. On current policy settings, this number will continue to rise.
The $160 million invested in processing asylum seekers more quickly has meant the backlog at the primary level appears to have plateaued at around 32,000 and at around 41,000 at the AAT (see Chart 1).
The more rapid processing of asylum seekers at the primary and AAT levels, at an average monthly refusal rate of around 90% over the past six months, has meant that the number of asylum seekers refused at both levels and not departed has increased at around 1,400 per month.
The profile of the asylum seeker backlog at the AAT is gradually shifting away from Malaysian nationals, falling from a peak of 14,957 at end June 2022 to 10,473 at end July 2024. Most of these asylum seekers would have now moved into the refused not departed group.
The number of asylum seekers at the AAT from China has broadly stabilised, with many of these also moving in to the refused not departed group.
Major nationalities at the AAT that have increased significantly include:
- Vietnam from 2,393 at end June 2022 to 4,488 at end July 2024;
- India from 1,720 at end June 2022 to 3,020 at end July 2024;
- Indonesia from 1,120 at end June 2022 to 2,431 at end July 2024; and
- Pacific Island nations from 1,541 at end June 2022 to 3,877 at end July 2024.
The most interesting nation emerging in the AAT backlog is Colombia at 102 at end July 2024 (from none at end June 2022). But with Colombia now firmly in the top five of asylum seekers at the primary level, together with a high refusal rate, we will see the backlog of Colombian asylum seekers at the AAT continue to rise and eventually flowing into the refused, but not departed group. This is a function of a surge of students from Colombia, mainly to do English language courses.
Removal of unsuccessful asylum seekers (both voluntary and involuntary) remains modest at less than 20 per month (see Chart 2). The government mainly relies on these people departing without the immigration compliance area playing any role. The number of such departures remains low.
To date, this issue has not been prominent in the Australian national media, mainly because the origins of the problem are from when Peter Dutton was Home Affairs Minister.
But as time goes by, and large volumes of undocumented people become a global issue, that may change.
The upcoming election in the US is increasingly putting this issue at the forefront of people’s minds. Donald Trump’s proposal for a mass deportation program, even though that will inevitably fail, may encourage Dutton to also push for this in Australia.
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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