When life gives you oranges…
Nov 8, 2024
While the result of the US election is bleak in some ways, it may ultimately lead to a more independent Australian foreign policy—one that centres on regional needs rather than simply following American interests.
A renewed Trump presidency disrupts established norms in international relations and challenges the “rules-based order.” The last four years of his administration saw the U.S. retract from global leadership, alienate allies, and adopt a more transactional diplomatic approach. For Australia, this highlights the sobering reality that we cannot rely on unconditional support from the U.S., spurring us to seek new paths to security, particularly with Southeast Asian neighbours and within the Pacific region.
While this shift is bleak in some ways, it may ultimately lead to a more independent Australian foreign policy—one that centres on regional needs rather than simply following American interests.
Domestically, Trump’s policies reinforce Australia’s need to diversify economically and strategically. His “America First” approach underscores that alliances with the U.S. are subject to U.S. interests first, prompting Australia to solidify its economic relationships elsewhere. While challenging, this push to diversify could strengthen ties with other regional powers, including Japan, South Korea, and India, creating a more resilient economy that isn’t overly dependent on one global superpower.
Another Trump term also sees the U.S. maintain a stance on environmental issues that diverges dramatically from global climate initiatives. Trump’s disregard for climate science and environmental protections puts him at odds with the international community. Australia, having experienced the ravages of wildfires, droughts, and rising seas, can no longer depend on the U.S. to lead on climate action. Instead, Australia has the opportunity—and indeed the imperative—to emerge as a proactive leader in climate policy, committing to responsible environmental action while many of our traditional allies, like the U.S., lag behind.
On the trade front, Australia faces both a challenge and a potential advantage due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. Trump’s confrontational approach to China places Australia in a difficult position, balancing its alliance with the U.S. against its economic reliance on China. Yet, this precarious position compels Australia to strengthen its relationships within the Asia-Pacific and seek deeper ties with emerging markets, thereby avoiding over-dependence on either nation. While this path is complex, it offers Australia a chance to cultivate a balanced, sustainable trade strategy.
Trump’s win also comes with an unexpected opportunity—a “brain gain” for Australia. Faced with political division and social challenges, an increasing number of skilled Americans are considering migrating. Notably, Australia is the only country where more Americans want to migrate to than people from that country want to migrate to the U.S. This phenomenon offers Australia a unique advantage: a potential influx of doctors, teachers, engineers, and other highly skilled professionals who may see Australia as a stable, appealing alternative. At a time when workforce shortages press heavily on sectors like healthcare and education, this migration trend could provide critical relief. Rather than the “brain drain” seen by many nations, Australia might experience a “brain gain,” benefiting from American expertise and energy.
Culturally, Trump’s administration continues to highlight issues of nationalism and populism that resonate far beyond America’s borders. These trends challenge Australia’s social cohesion and provide an opportunity for reflection. By observing the strains in the U.S., Australia has the chance to strengthen its own social fabric, building a more unified and resilient society in response to the rise of populism globally.
In sum, a Trump re-election may seem bleak for Australia, and in many ways, it is. Yet, as the saying goes, when life gives you [fake, spray-tanned] oranges, make juice. The next four years will undoubtedly test Australia’s resilience, forcing us to confront vulnerabilities and make investments toward a stronger, more self-reliant future. These opportunities—whether a more independent foreign policy, a diversified economy, or an influx of skilled talent—are there for the taking. But they require a leadership with foresight and skill to capitalise on them. Don’t hold your breath.
David O’Halloran is an occupational therapist with nearly 40 years’ experience and lectures in Work and Labour Market Theory at Monash University. He is also the President of the Tasmanian Council of Churches.
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