Those espousing our embrace of America’s war against China start with the assertion that it is China’s aggression and aim for regional hegemony which must be resisted. No doubt China sees that in reverse – America as an overbearing, deeply hostile power perched on the edge of Asia pursuing hegemony at each end of the Eurasian continent. Blustering and freely admitting that it alone is not sufficiently powerful, pressuring “allies” for its ends – ruthlessly demanding more defence expenditure and economic and trade sacrifices. Australia is not alone – ask Japan and the Philippines.
Australians are being prepared for war against China, for America’s ends, by our government, and our media and a compromised commentariat. All have a self- interest. It was said in this weekend’s newspaper The Australian by former departmental head Mike Pezzullo that to oppose the drive to war is to “live in the 1990s”. A potshot at former Prime Minister Paul Keating, reeking of hypocrisy.
How has it come to this? Australia’s security planning was upturned and “pivoted” against China upon the visit of President Barack Obama in 2010. Until then Australia’s strategic policy emphasised independence from America, focused on our direct defence. The Defence White Paper of 2009 said: “In terms of military strategy, it means the ability to conduct independent military operations in the defence of Australia by way of controlling the air and sea approaches to Australia, and denying an adversary the ability to operate, without disruption, in our immediate neighbourhood, to the extent required to ensure the security of our territory and people.” Squarely independent and defensive. Exactly what Keating has been saying. Faithfully continuing the lineage of the first White Paper in 1976. And Pezzullo claims he is the author of these words.
In fact, Australia’s defence policy has been contiguous on self-reliance since 1976. So what was good for Pezzullo to believe in 2009 is the same as in the 1990s. And now we find him dumping on it. Let’s not forget that this disgraced former head of the Department of Home Affairs was sacked less than a year ago for multiple breaches of the code of conduct, including seeking personal advantage. Now he pontificates, compliments of the Murdoch press, undermining truth at the expense of earnest distinguished people on grave matters of state.
As former US Secretary of State Zbigniew Brzezinski observed, global hegemony will not be achieved without domination of the Eurasian continent. That’s never been achieved. But to the neocons who drive US foreign policy, typified by President Joe Biden, that is America’s geostrategic goal. No quarter will be afforded, to friends or foe.
But back to Australia’s brains trust in the Murdoch press. Pezzullo eventually hits upon the heart of the issue: “what would Chinese hegemony mean for Australian sovereignty and independence? The best instinctive conclusion is that our interests would be harmed far more than they would be advantaged.” Instinctive? That’s the basis of our preparing for war with China – guesswork! Clearly the overbearing risk hasn’t been assessed by Australia. It’s not hard. On the one hand, facts show an America increasingly stretched and politically volatile. On the other, China is well on course to outweigh America economically and geopolitically, evermore decisively through the Global South. And no matter how America’s wars turn out, it is always the allies that suffer, not America.
Australia must devise a program to rid itself of this danger and demeaning dependence on the US which our leaders have accepted without question. Now is the time to confront the old rubicons. For instance, technology means Pine Gap is no longer necessary, either for the US or ourselves. The functions can be delivered from space. Australia must recognise that our own space-based intelligence capability is feasible and affordable with redirection of priorities away from the nuclear submarine fiasco.
In any case, Australia is not critical to America’s war plans against China. In the event of Australia reasserting our strategic independence, the dial will barely move in the Pentagon’s war room. The rub will be American chagrin at losing a dopey sovereign possession, the 51st State. Alas, political leadership of the calibre required to rescue Australia is rare.
Australia should never have been placed in this position. Profound shifts in our foreign policy and defence have been implemented with stealth and connivance of both major political parties, for their own political gain. Nobody has spoken up during the 15 years the takeover has been in play. Substance has been stigmatised. Access to senior public service positions is fast tracked via careers in ministers offices’ – where tricky and convenient verbiage like Pezzullo’s is the currency. Generally lacking, with a few exceptions, is the years of disciplined policy development which once was the bedrock of Australia’s governance.
Australians want to know from the government what Australia will do when America finds it in its interest to withdraw from Asia, as is inevitable while temporally uncertain.
Dr Mike Gilligan worked for 20 years in defence policy and evaluating military proposals for development, including time in the Pentagon on military balances in Asia.
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