Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia’s rate of population ageing and boost Australia’s international education and tourism industries.
Abul's recent articles
15 April 2025
Managing overseas student policy is key to keeping migration numbers in check. If I was immigration minister, Part 2
Ever since Scott Morrison told overseas students to go home at the start of the pandemic and then stomped on the student visa accelerator once the pandemic ended, overseas student numbers have increased and policy has been fraught with constant changes to reduce the inflow of students.
10 April 2025
If I was immigration minister, I would develop a population plan
If there is one thing politicians should have learnt in the last three years, it is that Australians expect them to manage long-term net migration and thus our rate of population growth.
2 April 2025
Immigration policy and the federal election
Peter Dutton is desperate to talk about immigration during the current election campaign. That will largely be about pointing fingers at Labor, sometimes misleading fingers as he did during his budget reply and not providing details of his own policies.
14 February 2025
How would Peter Dutton cut public service numbers?
Peter Dutton says he wants to increase government efficiency, but beyond wanting to cut public service numbers, he won’t tell us how until after the election.
29 January 2025
What is Dan Tehan and the Coalition offering on asylum seeker policy?
As the overall number of asylum seekers in Australia continues to rise and is now over 120,000, Shadow Immigration Spokesperson Dan Tehan regularly criticises the Labor Government for not doing enough to get control of asylum seeker numbers. But with a Federal Election just months away, we do not know what either the Coalition or Labor will do to get on top of the issue.
16 January 2025
Dutton’s contempt for migration law and policy detail
In his unofficial election policy launch this week, Peter Dutton re-announced his promise to cut the migration program and to cap overseas students at metropolitan universities. Without a hint of embarrassment, he also said he was a strong believer in the ‘rule of law’. His record shows he has little belief in the rules embodied in the Migration Act nor would he have the legal powers to implement these promises if elected.
11 December 2024
Dutton scrambling on immigration levels
Having made bold promises to reduce immigration in his 2024-25 Budget reply speech and in a radio interview with 2GB’s Ben Fordham the next day, Peter Dutton is now scrambling to explain his position on immigration levels.
12 November 2024
Dutton's failure on border protection
Peter Dutton and the Murdoch press are celebrating Trump’s anti-immigration fuelled victory. While he may not use Trump’s extreme language such as ‘migrants are poisoning the blood’, or that they are ‘eating the dogs’, his anti-immigration rhetorical skills are his best pathway to the Lodge.
30 October 2024
Jason Clare is wrong on net migration and student caps
In a speech at the Australian Education International (AEI) conference, Education Minister Jason Clare is reported to have told the audience that student caps will help with “the government’s ambitions to get immigration levels back to pre-pandemic levels, including international student numbers”.
26 September 2024
Does Trump want both mass deportation and remigration?
Donald Trump’s desire for a mass deportation program for about 11 million undocumented migrants in the US (he says the number is much bigger) is well known. According to some polling, around 54% of US citizens support such a program even if they have no idea how it would be implemented, how it may affect them or what it would cost. Less well known is Trump’s denaturalisation or remigration program.
7 September 2024
Unsuccessful asylum seekers now exceed those at primary and AAT stages
As has been the case every month since around 2015-16, the number of asylum seekers in Australia continued to set records, reaching 116,389 at end July 2024. The total number refused at both the primary level and at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT), but not departed, is now a record of 43,499. On current policy settings, this number will continue to rise.
4 September 2024
Record numbers of temporary graduates in immigration limbo
Temporary graduate visas are for overseas students who complete their study and wish to undertake work in Australia, often as a pathway to permanent residence. These visas work best when the bulk of temporary graduates seeking permanent residence are able to secure skilled work and eventually a permanent residence employer sponsored (or other) permanent visa.
16 August 2024
Has Australia turned its back on assisting people fleeing war/conflict?
Australia has a long and proud history of assisting people fleeing war and conflict. The degree and type of assistance we have provided has varied considerably but we have never applied a blanket ban on helping people fleeing war and conflict. Not until Peter Dutton.
13 August 2024
Working holiday makers – the ignored contributors to net migration
In the white-hot debate about the blow out in net migration and targeting of the student contribution to net migration, the contribution of Working Holiday Makers to net migration, which is not insignificant, has largely been ignored by both politicians and the media. Can that continue?
7 August 2024
Do 84 percent of overseas students go home?
Much has been made by the International Education Industry of a 2013-14 Treasury estimate that 84 percent of overseas students go home. Apart from the accuracy of this estimate over ten years after the Knight Review recommendations were implemented, the Industry argues that because a large percentage of students go home, there is no need for the Government to manage student numbers or student policy. This reflects a misunderstanding of the policy problems the Government is trying to address.
31 July 2024
Did O’Neil and Giles fail to fix our immigration system?
The media and politicians are inevitably arguing Albanese’s decision to move Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles and replace them with Tony Burke at Home Affairs reflects their failure to fix our immigration system. The reality is much more complex as few Australians would be aware of the mess they inherited, particularly following the mis-management of the Dutton/Pezzullo administration.
25 July 2024
Republican immigration policies foretell mass deportations, tent cities and razor wire
The Republican Party are intent on making immigration their key issue in the forthcoming US Election. The 2024 Republican Party platform and Trump’s nomination acceptance speech make that abundantly clear. But what would Donald Trump’s immigration policies look like in practice?
18 July 2024
Net movement of Australian Citizens reverses in 2023-24
A much under-reported part of net migration is the net movement (short-term and long-term) of Australian citizens. At 37,380, a new record for the positive net movement of Australian citizens, other than in the first year of covid, was set in 2023-24. That makes the Government’s net migration forecast of 395,000 in 2023-24 even more implausible.
15 July 2024
Student visa holders applying for asylum
Since March 2018, over 13,700 student visa holders have applied for asylum. This does not include temporary graduate visa holders who may have applied for asylum. The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) uses the number of asylum applications by student visa holders as a risk indicator which can lead to an increase in offshore student visa refusals (but gives this indicator a relatively low weight).
6 July 2024
ACIL modelling used by Sydney University fundamentally flawed
This Sydney Morning Herald article reports on ACIL Allen modelling undertaken for Sydney University which concludes that in 2025, there will be around 60,000 fewer international students enrolling compared to 2023 and will lead to job losses of around 22,000. The rationale for this is based on a flawed understanding of how Net Overseas Migration works.
31 May 2024
Dutton’s abysmal record on immigration integrity
Home Affairs Minister James Paterson has recently been extolling Peter Dutton’s record on immigration integrity and dealing with foreign criminals. So let’s just test those claims.
25 May 2024
Dutton’s migration cuts on parents, health workers, risks massive backlash from Australia’s migrant community
In his Budget reply, Peter Dutton said he wants to cut the permanent migration program from 185,000 to 140,000 while maintaining a two-thirds to one third balance in favour of the skill stream. We subsequently found out that this is part of his plan to reduce net migration to 160,000.
18 May 2024
The immigration debate: smoke, mirrors and a dash of xenophobia
This past Budget week had the most intense focus on immigration levels that I can remember (and I’ve been watching immigration policy in Budget week for over 35 years). It confirms that immigration levels will be a dominant issue at the next Election.
22 April 2024
Major acceleration in processing of asylum seekers
In the last three months, processing of primary level asylum seeker applications increased from 1,002 in December 2023; to 1,479 in January 2024 and 2,037 in February 2024 (see Chart 1).
4 April 2024
Did Dutton and Tehan disagree on immigration levels?
In a recent interview on Perth radio, Opposition Spokesman on Immigration, Dan Tehan, asserted: I've been saying now for well over 18 months, it's [meaning immigration] too high.
31 March 2024
Why are Chinese backpackers required to sit an English Test while Taiwanese backpackers are not?
It's well past time that Australia's English language requirements for working holiday visas was addressed and applied consistently for young people in all countries.
28 March 2024
The real reason Labor is rushing through immigration powers
The government's new deportation legislation is both radical and at the same time addresses two issues that have been around for at least 30 years. But is it good law and why the urgency?
24 March 2024
Why we shouldnt believe the Institute of Public Affairs
Net permanent and long-term (NP&L-T) movements data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was recently used by the far right Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) in a highly politicised analysis of the January 2024 data on NP&L-T movements. This analysis was naturally picked up by the Murdoch press via the Daily Telegraph with very little scrutiny.
19 March 2024
In 2022-23, onshore asylum seekers were 33% less than under Peter Dutton
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) this week published full year data on onshore asylum seekers in 2022-23 compared to 2022-21. The data highlights a post-pandemic high of 18,738 asylum applications in 2022-23 compared to 10,564 in 2021-22. That is still well below the record set under Peter Dutton of almost 28,000 asylum applications in 2017-18.
12 March 2024
The future of Australias overseas student program
At over 40 percent of net migration, Australias overseas student program was growing unsustainably before the pandemic. The border closures hid many of the problems and led the Coalition Government to make policy changes that made the situation much worse when borders re-opened (unrestricted work rights, fee-free visa applications, covid visa).
6 March 2024
What happened to net migration in January 2024
With the Opposition Spokesperson for Immigration, Dan Tehan, making it clear immigration levels will be a key battleground for the 2025 Election, the Government will be keen to see net migration trending down faster. While net migration past its peak in around September 2023, it is still not falling sharply. That is despite major tightening of student visa policy, including very high refusal rates and slower processing.
4 March 2024
Is Dan Tehan confused about immigration levels?
In an interview on the Insiders program, Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan was asked what Australias immigration intake should be. He said that 1.6 million over the next four years, implying that is the Albanese Governments plan, was too high. But is that really the Albanese Governments plan?
21 February 2024
Dutton oversaw largest rise in asylum applications in history. They came by air
The arrival last week of a boat carrying 24 potential asylum seekers, and possibly another one carrying 13, sent Peter Dutton into his standard boat arrivals scare mode. The usual suspects at the Murdoch press went into a frenzy of panic with Chris Kenny calling it a national dilemma.
20 February 2024
Permanent and long-term movements continue at high levels
While it is highly likely net migration is now past its peak and declining, the data to this stage suggests it may only be falling gradually.
6 February 2024
Whats happening with covid visa holders?
The covid visa stream of sub-class 408 was introduced during the pandemic when international borders were closed. It enabled temporary entrants who were unable to leave Australia to maintain their lawful status and keep working. They could apply for a 12 month covid stream visa and then apply for another one if they wished.
2 February 2024
Restricting onshore student visa hopping harder than it looks
Onshore student visa policy gets relatively little attention as it deals with people who are already in Australia, but it is critical to how the overseas student program operates.
30 January 2024
Time running out for Albanese Government to fix asylum system
Despite its $160 million package to better manage asylum seekers, time is running out for the Albanese Government to get on top of the asylum seeker issue prior to the 2025 election.
17 January 2024
If immigration must stay in Home Affairs, here's how to fix the agency
The founding secretary of the Department of Home Affairs,Mike Pezzullo, was dismissed late last year for egregiously breaching the public service code of conduct. The man who lectured public servants they should live by that code, broke it in a manner no previous secretary in living memory had done.
31 December 2023
Different views of Australias population from agencies in the same portfolio
Three days before Christmas, Treasurys Centre for Population has without much fanfare issued its 2023 Population Statement.
17 December 2023
Is Albanese on track to deliver proposed net migration reductions?
After letting net migration blow out to around 518,000 in 2022-23, the Albanese Government has announced it wants to bring net migration down to 375,000 in 23-24 and 250,000 in 24-25
4 December 2023
Duttons border protection rhetoric is nothing like his border protection record
Peter Duttons border protection rhetoric has contributed to a remarkable improvement in the Coalitions public polling. He will ride that rhetoric to the next Election.
27 November 2023
Hysteria: Putting the 12 asylum seeker boat arrivals into context
While there is much hysteria from Peter Dutton and the Murdoch press associated with the 12 asylum seekers who recently arrived by boat (its a catastrophe apparently), there was less excitement about a new post-pandemic monthly record for primary asylum applications set in October at 2,322. That is now approaching the monthly record of over 2,700 asylum applications set when Peter Dutton was Minister. It seems asylum seekers arriving by boat are much more exciting than those who arrive by plane.
13 November 2023
Have primary asylum applications peaked?
Primary level asylum applications fell marginally in September 2023 to 2,005 from a post-pandemic peak of 2,164 in August 2023. With the Government having announced a $160 million package to get the asylum system back under some control, can we now expect primary level asylum applications to have peaked?
8 November 2023
Net migration of 500,000 guarantees an ugly immigration election
The October 2023 arrivals and departures data, to be published next week, is highly likely to confirm that net migration for the 12 months to September 2023 will be around 500,000. That is both unprecedented and unplanned. It will lock in an ugly immigration focussed 2025 Federal Election as net migration will fall only slowly unless there is a dramatic weakening of the labour market.
1 November 2023
Record asylum caseload at Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)
With announcement of a strategy to address Australias burgeoning asylum backlogs, it is worth looking at the asylum caseload at the AAT. Addressing the backlog at the appeals stage is often critical to getting the asylum system working, as it should to help genuine refugees while deterring the unmeritorious.
9 October 2023
Albanese government addresses coalition-era asylum seekers surge
After around eight years of policy paralysis and the biggest labour trafficking scam abusing the asylum system in our history, a scam that was largely neglected by Home Affairs Minister Dutton and his Secretary Mike Pezzullo, the Albanese Government has announced a $160 million package to restore integrity to Australias refugee protection system.
28 September 2023
Pezzullo departure should end the Home Affairs experiment
Creation of the Department of Home Affairs was a disaster for Australias immigration policy and administration. The impending departure of its architect, Secretary Mike Pezzullo, enables the Albanese Government to bring that experiment to an end.
27 September 2023
What the forthcoming migration strategy wont address
The Government has foreshadowed that it will soon release its new migration strategy. Most of what has been leaked to date is sensible fine tuning of employer sponsored visas which will have little impact on net migration levels. But I fear the migration strategy will be largely silent on the big issue of net migration levels and how these are to be managed.
19 September 2023
Asylum seekers from Pacific Island Nations
In August 2023, there was another sharp increase in asylum applications from Pacific Island nationals (including Timor-Leste) to over 390. That is more asylum applications in August than from Chinese nationals (215) and Indian nationals (214) despite there being far more Chinese and Indian temporary entrants in Australia.