Abul Rizvi

Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia’s rate of population ageing and boost Australia’s international education and tourism industries.

Abul's recent articles

ABUL RIZVI. Why the Kiwis are not coming to OZ any more

For much of the last 30 years, New Zealand has been one of Australias top source countries for migrants. But since 2013-14 Australia seems to have lost its attraction to Kiwis.

ABUL RIZVI. Morrison impotent on visa arrangements for Indonesians

The Australian of 10 February 2019 reports the Morrison government is considering Mr Jokos proposal for Australia to relax visa restrictions for Indonesian visitors in line with the visa on arrival arrangements for Australians visiting Indonesia.

ABUL RIZVI. Duttons Trifecta of Border Protection Failures

For years now Peter Dutton has boasted of his border protection achievements. But a brief examination of the details of his boast shows that while he has excelled in gratuitous cruelty, dog-whistling and wasting taxpayers money, his actual border protection record is weak. He has given us the trifecta of weak borders, inhumane treatment of genuine refugees and a reputation as racists.

ABUL RIZVI: Does Australia have a temporary migration problem?

On 5 December 2019, the Senate established a Select Committee on Temporary Migration to inquire into the impact temporary migration has on the Australian economy, wages and jobs, social cohesion and workplace rights and conditions.

ABUL RIZVI. The Australian again falls for Government spin on the record number of asylum seekers arriving by air.

In a front page exclusive on 28 January, Geoff Chambers and Joe Kelly of The Australian uncritically regurgitate the Governments talking points on asylum seekers arriving by plane. Either they are just innocents with no idea how to do the job of a journalist or they see their role as purely to defend the Government.

ABUL RIZVI: Why 5% unemployment today is not the same as 5% unemployment 10-20 years ago

The unemployment rate, and even the underemployment rate, have become an inadequate measure of the true health of our labour market.

ABUL RIZVI. No end in sight to growth in Duttons backlogs-the asylum seekers who came by air.

End December 2019 data shows the backlog of asylum applications at the primary stage, at the AAT and those who have been finally refused and have become overstayers continues to grow.

ABUL RIZVI: Forecasts of Net Overseas Migration Why they matter

It does not matter much if Treasury forecasts of net overseas migration (NOM) from one year to the next are out by 30,000 or 40,000 as is likely for the 2019 Budget forecast for 2020. This happens regularly. But it is much more serious if forecasts are out by this much for every year over the four years of the forward estimates.

ABUL RIZVI: Is Dutton Undermining Birminghams Tourism Campaign?

Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham has announced an additional $25 million to market Australia to international tourists in response to the impact of the bushfire crisis. He says this is necessary to save Aussie jobs. But his counterpart Peter Dutton has been dramatically reducing approval rates for visitor visa applications for Asian tourists. Are they not talking to each other?

ABUL RIZVI: Dutton and Pezzullos Asylum Seeker Bungle November Update

David Crowe in the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Duttons Department received an average of 77 asylum applications per day in November 2019. That brings the total number of asylum applications in the last five and a half years to well over 100,000. But what is happening to those 100,000 people?

ABUL RIZVI: Re-emergence of Dodgy VET Colleges

Since January 2018, the Australian Skills Quality Agency (ASQA) has cancelled the registration of around 450 private VET colleges. This is after years of such cancellations being relatively rare. A spokesperson for ASQA has said this reflects an improved ability to better target regulatory activities on providers demonstrating the highest risks to VET in Australia. But what does this mean for the merits of qualifications issued by these colleges?

ABUL RIZVI: Dysfunction in Home Affairs officially confirmed

The dysfunction in the Home Affairs Department that has been long reported on (see here, here, and here) has now been officially confirmed in a survey conducted by the Australian Public Service Commission.

ABUL RIZVI. Highlights of 2018-19 Migration Program Outcome

Minister Coleman has at last allowed the 2018-19 Migration Program report to be published in early December. These are usually finalised each July. Two highlights: (1) the Partner visa application pipeline has reached almost 90,000 and is certain to grow much further in 2019-20; and (2) the backlog of employer sponsored visa applications is falling fast and will require Coleman to back-track on the ham-fisted changes to these visas made by Peter Dutton.

ABUL RIZVI. A Cruel Government Setting Regional Migrants Up for Exploitation and Failure

On 16 November 2019, the Governments much touted new regional migration visas took effect. One of these is a five year provisional visa that requires the migrant to be nominated by a state/territory government. To secure permanent residence, the provisional migrant must live and work in the relevant region and earn at least $53,900 per annum for a minimum of three financial years. If state/territory governments actively participate in this visa, they will be collaborating with the Commonwealth to set up many of these migrants for exploitation and failure.

ABUL RIZVI: Asylum Applications from China and Malaysia

Government has argued the surge in asylum applications from Chinese and Malaysian citizens is just part of normal growth in the caseload (see here). Nothing could be further from the truth. The surge is entirely the result of poor policy such as the staffing cap, Home Affairs rushing implementation of e:visas for Chinese nationals to save money and one that is slow to respond when things go wrong despite its rhetoric about being strong on border protection and immigration integrity.

ABUL RIZVI: Frydenbergs Population Ageing Backflip

After studiously ignoring population ageing in his ten year budget plan issued before the 2019 Election, Josh Frydenberg now says population ageing will be an economic and fiscal timebomb. So which of the two Frydenberg narratives are we to believe? The pre-election one or the post-election one?

ABUL RIZVI: Prime Minister fudges regional migration figures

In a speech at the Migration and Settlement awards (23 October 2019), Prime Minister Scott Morrison crowed about the number of regional migration visas issued in the first quarter of 2019-20. Now Immigration Minister Coleman has announced the target will be increased from 23,000 to 25,000 and that Perth and the Gold Coast will be counted as regional. What the Government hasnt explained is the increased target is largely the result of changing its own counting rules. It has little to do with substance.

ABUL RIZVI. Pezzullo in Denial

At Senate Estimates this week, Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo denied the record number of (largely non-genuine) asylum applications under his watch is a crisis. This is like the black knight in Monty Pythons Holy Grail insisting losing his arms and legs was just a flesh wound. But more seriously, Government allowing Pezzullo to get away with this denial suggests the size of the problem is going to get a lot worse.

ABUL RIZVI. Current surge in asylum seekers is not normal for Australia

Writing in The Conversation, Regina Jefferies and Daniel Ghezelbash argue the current surge in onshore asylum applications is not unprecedented because tourists or students often lodge claims for asylum due to circumstances beyond their control. They give the example of the Chinese students after the Tiananmen Square massacre. But Jefferies and Ghezelbash fail to note the very stark differences between the two situations.

ABUL RIZVI: Bob Birrells War on Partner Visas

The partner visa categories are for people who have formed a genuine relationship (formally married or de facto or prospective marriage) with an Australian citizen or permanent resident. In July 2019 Bob Birrell continued his long-standing war on partner visas, particularly for people from poorer Asian countries, by calling for further restrictions on partner migration. His article attracted substantial coverage in The Australian and Sky News. But how strong is his case?

ABUL RIZVI: Morrisons Mixed Messages on Migration

A string of immigration related articles in The Australian on 5 September 2019 and on 7 September 2019 again dutifully conveyed the Governments mixed messages on immigration policy without asking a single question about the inherent inconsistencies and loss of control over Australias visa system. The Government continues to promote three very separate messages on immigration to three separate constituencies.

Dysfunction in Home Affairs officially confirmed

The dysfunction in the Home Affairs Department that has been long reported on (see here, here, and here) has now been officially confirmed in a survey conducted by the Australian Public Service Commission.

ABUL RIZVI: Government Responds to Duttons Visa Chaos on Asylum Seekers

The Government has at last responded to the chaos in our visa system. In response to a question from Senator Keneally, Senator Linda Reynolds has suggested the bridging visa backlog is apparently due to an unexpected surge in visa applications that caught Home Affairs off-guard. Also, in 2018-19 there has been a 12 percent fall in on-shore asylum applications. So does that mean all is now well?

ABUL RIZVI: Government reveals details of its net overseas migration (NOM) forecast

The Government has at last revealed some details of its 2019 Budget forecast for a record breaking level of sustained NOM. The key is a significant increase in the net contribution from temporary visa holders. This would mean the current stock of around 2 million temporary entrants in our population must rise even more rapidly. Are we on the way to transitioning from a migrant settler nation to a guest worker society? But if there is a shortfall in forecast NOM, what would be the implications for the Prime Ministers job creation pledge and for its ten year tax plan?

ABUL RIZVI: South Australia - Canary in the Ageing Coalmine

In terms of the impact of population ageing, South Australia provides a glimpse into Australias future. Over the next decade, ageing will impact Australia more significantly than at any time in our post World War II history. By 2030, all the 5.5 million baby boomers will be past age 65 and predominantly in retirement.

ABUL RIZVI: Chaos in our Visa System Continues

New Shadow Minister for Home Affairs, Kristina Keneally and Shadow Immigration Minister have signalled they intend to hold the Government to account for the chaos in our visa system. This article updates some of the data on that chaos which confirms Home Affairs continues to struggle. The Departments funding over the next few years, together with its plans for visa privatisation, suggest the Government has no effective method for regaining control over our air borders.

ABUL RIZVI: Morrisons budget plan was far riskier than Shorten's

Bill Shorten and the mainstream media failed to explain that Scott Morrisons alternative tax and budget plan was the far higher risk option. It requires record levels of population growth over the next ten years over 4.5 million more people. But how will this massive increase in population be delivered and when does Morrison intend to explain this to the Australian public?

ABUL RIZVI. The loss of control of our air borders and with the AAT drowning

The backlog of migration and asylum cases at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) reached a record 57,597 at end April 2019. That includes an astonishing 19,469 applications for asylum. The AAT is drowning. With the Dutton/Pezzullo engineered chaos in our visa system and loss of control of our air borders (see here and here), the situation at the AAT will get quite a lot worse before it gets any better irrespective of who wins the forthcoming Election.

ABUL RIZVI. Is the Immigration and Customs Merger an Irretrievable Disaster?

Merger of Immigration and Customs and eventual incorporation into a wider Home Affairs Department has been an extraordinary disaster, at least for the immigration side of things. Whoever wins Government will face a Herculean task to fix things up. Reinstatement of a standalone immigration department, incorporating the traditional immigration functions, may be the only viable option. But what of the current leadership?

ABUL RIZVI. Partner Visas A Lesser Known Dutton Scandal

At end June 2018, the Government had allowed a backlog of over 80,000 Partner visa applications to build up. These are overseas-born people who are married to, or intend to marry, Australian citizens or permanent residents. Rather than take steps to deal with the backlog, Dutton started to cut down on the number of Partner places available, even though the law requires spouse visas be managed on a demand driven basis. His successor David Coleman has decided to continue the scandal.

ABUL RIZVI: Government cuts permanent migration program but forecasts net migration to rise (Part 2)

Government has cut the migration program ceiling from 190,000 to 160,000 per annum but at the same time is forecasting net migration to rise from 241,700 in 2017 to 259,600 in 2018 and 271,700 in 2019. This was after it forecast a steady decline in net migration in the 2018 Budget. This is likely the result of changes to temporary skilled entry policy, working holiday makers and a continuing rise in visitors changing status after arrival including record numbers applying for asylum.

ABUL RIZVI: Government cuts permanent migration program but forecasts net migration to rise (Part 1)

Government has cut the migration program ceiling from 190,000 to 160,000 per annum but at the same time is forecasting net migration to rise from 241,700 in 2017 to 259,600 in 2018 and 271,700 in 2019. This was after it forecast a steady decline in net migration in the 2018 Budget. This is likely the result of changes to temporary skilled entry policy, working holiday makers and a continuing rise in visitors changing status after arrival including record numbers applying for asylum.

ABUL RIZVI. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton have lost control of our borders.

Chaos in our visa system and extraordinary border control failures are being exploited by people smugglers to deliver record numbers of non-genuine asylum seekers arriving by air. The Coalition pretends we only have sea borders and can ignore our air borders. Yet Australia is sleep-walking into replicating the experience of Europe and the USA with an ever increasing underclass of failed asylum seekers. Our borders have never been so out of control.

ABUL RIZVI. New regional visas - a recipe for exploitation and destitution.

The Governments new regional migration arrangements make it easier for potential migrants with lower skill levels and limited English to access temporary residence via low paid jobs in regional Australia. At the same time, the government is making it significantly more difficult for these people to secure permanent residence. This is a recipe for more exploitation and the potential to add to a growing underclass of destitute people who have no access to any form of social safety net.

ABUL RIZVI: Questions Ahead of Home Affairs Meeting That Never Happened

On 29 March 2019, I received an email stating Secretary Pezzullo has requested that a/g Deputy Secretary, Luke Mansfield and First Assistant Secretary, Richard Johnson provide you a personal briefing. Thinking this was the dawn of a new era of transparency in Home Affairs, I asked if I could send a series of questions ahead of the meeting to guide the discussion. This was agreed to and below is the list of questions I sent four days ahead of the meeting. An hour before the scheduled time of the meeting, I received an email stating the meeting had been cancelled....

ABUL RIZVI. Dodgy Population Assumptions Crucial to Budget Figuring.

Ken Henry was forever explaining economic growth, and consequently the strength of the budget, is a function of productivity, participation and population. With the weak productivity growth of recent years likely to continue, the population and labour participation assumptions become crucial - particularly as the Treasurer is forecasting budget surpluses so big that over 10 years they are assumed to wipe out the Governments net debt. The question must me asked: to deliver the forecast surpluses the government demanded, did Treasury have no choice but to assume a much faster rate of population growth, even if this contradicted the Prime...

ABUL RIZVI: Migration confusion again (Part 2)

Judith Sloan writing in The Australian (Were the big losers in this immigration numbers game) has called on the Morrison Government to do much more to drive down immigration, not just the migration program which is measured in terms of permanent visas granted, but also net migration which measures long-term and permanent arrivals minus departures.

ABUL RIZVI: Migration confusion again (Part 1)

Judith Sloan writing in The Australian (Were the big losers in this immigration numbers game) has called on the Morrison Government to do much more to drive down immigration, not just the migration program which is measured in terms of permanent visas granted, but also net migration which measures long-term and permanent arrivals minus departures.

ABUL RIZVI. Questions for Dutton on his record border protection failure.

The mainstream media (other than The Australian, The Daily Telegraph, Herald-Sun, Daily Mail, Sky News After Dark, Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and their ilk who usually obsess about border protection) has at last picked up on Duttons failure to secure our borders. Dutton now holds the record as the Immigration Minister under whom Australia received the largest number of non-genuine asylum applications (see here and here). It is time now to ask Dutton more detailed questions on what he has done about this over the last three years and what he will now do given he has failed to stem...

ABUL RIZVI: Asylum Seekers and Character Checking

Government has expressed concern that under the Medevac Amendments, serious criminals will enter Australia. Immigration Minister Coleman said at Question Time that a backpacker from Norway passes a stronger Character test than the people entering under the Medevac Amendments. While this is superficially correct, in practice the Government is being quite misleading. Lets unpack the issues.

ABUL RIZVI. Another Dutton mess. This time Citizenship processing.

The Auditor-General on 11 February 2019 found in its audit of citizenship application processing that these are not being processed in either a time efficient manner or a resource efficient manner. But this is a tiny portion of a wider malaise in the administration of a once world class immigration system the Government and the senior leadership of the Home Affairs Department has allowed be run down. The record numbers of largely non-genuine asylum seeker applications (see here and here) and the Governments lack of action on these (the backlog of these at primary and review stages is now likely...

ABUL RIZVI. Is the Government walking both sides of the street on immigration?

Scott Morrison has announced (see here) a commitment to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years, beating Tony Abbotts commitment in 2013 to create 1 million jobs over five years. But to achieve 1.25 million jobs over five years, Morrison will need to maintain an even higher level of net migration than over the past five years. How should we reconcile this with Morrisons earlier speech committing to reduce immigration, particularly to reduce congestion in the major cities (see here)? Well the two cant be reconciled. One of them must, almost by definition, be untrue.

ABUL RIZVI. Is The Australian making excuses for incompetent immigration administration?

Nick Cater writing in The Australian (see here if you can get past the Paywall) seems to think people trying to manipulate the visa system is news. Has he been as asleep to this while our intrepid government has allowed a world class visa system to deteriorate into chaos (see here)? It is the chaos in our visa system that has enabled Dutton to set a new record in the number of mainly non-genuine asylum seeker applications (see here). But rather than ask the hard questions about how a government obsessed with border protection could have allowed this, Cater looks...

ABUL RIZVI: Government Continues to Pretend We Have No Air Borders

In an echo of Donald Trump, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Immigration Minister David Coleman continued to pretend yesterday we only have sea borders and we can ignore our air borders. They announced closure of two detention centres (see here) without telling the Australian public that their mismanagement of the visa system will inevitably mean we will need lots of detention space in future if we are to ever regain control of the visa system and deal with the deluge of mainly non-genuine asylum seekers arriving by air (see here).

ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Privatising visa processing the alarm bells are ringing (Part 1)

Major ICT transformation projects conducted in partnership with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing.

ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Privatising visa processing the alarm bells are ringing (Part 2)

Major ICT transformation projects conducted in partnership with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing.

ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: How the 2017-18 migration program was delivered.

The report on the 2017-18 migration program has now been publicly released, more than two and a half months after an exclusive to The Australian newspaper and a short time after the Home Affairs department appeared before Senate estimates. As reported in The Australian, the outcome was indeed 162,417, over 27,500 below the ceiling of 190,000 by far the largest program shortfall in at least 50 years.

ABUL RIZVI. What were the drivers of Net Overseas Migration in 2017-18?

Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in 2017-18 fell to 236,733, down from 262,490 in 2016-17. The decline is not as large as might have been expected given cuts to the migration and humanitarian programs and policy changes to employer sponsored temporary and permanent migration. Visitors changing status after arrival now represent a record 24 per cent of NOM a crucial indicator the visa system is in a bad way.

ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Scott Morrisons Record on Immigration.

While Scott Morrison earlier this year publicly disagreed with Tony Abbott on immigration levels, he eventually gave way to Duttons ruse about greater scrutiny leading to the migration program ceiling not being delivered in 2017-18. Will he continue to compromise with Abbott and Dutton on immigration or has he drawn a line in the sand by appointing a moderate in David Coleman as the new immigration minister?

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