Bob McMullan
Bob McMullan was State Secretary of the Labor Party and National Secretary as well as a Senator, MP and Cabinet Minister. He is now a Visiting fellow at the Australian Studies Institute at ANU.
Bob's recent articles
29 March 2025
Some thoughts on the recent Western Australian election
The recent victory of the Labor party in Western Australia was remarkable in a number of ways.
24 February 2025
The human cost of Trump's cuts
Too many commentators are looking at the administrative changes Donald Trump is making at USAID rather than focusing on the tragic human consequences of the underlying policy changes.
10 February 2025
Australian electoral prospects
There is a marked immaturity in the reporting of opinion polls and other political developments in Australia at the moment. I see problems in two main categories.
22 January 2025
How the states vote, and why the PM started his 2025 campaigning in Queensland
The Virginia University’s publication, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, recently published an interesting article about the recent voting performance of the various US states relative to the nation as a whole.
5 April 2024
Can Albo overcome the paradox of class?
Boris Johnson did it, Donald Trump specialises in it, Peter Dutton is trying it.
15 February 2024
UK Labour could splinter Conservative politics for a decade in 2024
It is almost impossible to devise a scenario in which the Labour Party does not win the UK election in 2024. The biggest remaining question may well be whether the victory is sufficiently large to almost guarantee a second term and possibly splinter the Conservative side of UK politics for a decade or more.
13 January 2024
Rise of the ultra-right: Elections survey 2023
2023 saw a disturbing rise in support for extreme right-wing parties across several European countries. With a series of major elections in large and significant countries due in 2024, including the USA and Russia, it will be interesting to see whether parties in the established democracies respond effectively to the rise of the ultra-right, and whether more countries rise to the challenge of a peaceful transfer of power.
19 November 2023
Real possibility of Trump presidency in 12 months
In twelve months time Americans will go to the polls to elect the next President. Is the world prepared for the outcome?
20 August 2023
Real chance of Trump victory in the US election
There are some worrying signs in recent polling which raise the disturbing possibility that a third-party campaign by the Green Party may once again divert enough votes from the Democratic Party candidate, in this case almost certainly Joe Biden, to get Donald Trump over the line in some key states and thereby deliver another Trump victory.
25 July 2023
Are the Greens losing the renters vote?
One of the emerging political challenges of the 2020s in Australia is the contest for the votes of renters.
9 July 2023
British elections
It is as certain as any future event can be that the British Labour Party will win the next UK election, which is likely to be held in the latter part of 2024.
3 April 2023
Election reflections: The Liberals should ditch the Coalition with the Nationals
There are some important lessons for the Liberal Party to learn from their recent series of election losses. There is no necessary law of political gravity which means that a party which has entered a losing sequence needs or will continue to do so. But if you keep making the same mistakes it is most likely that you will keep getting the same result.
17 February 2023
Aston truths
I have never seen so much rubbish written about a forthcoming political event as I have seen about the forthcoming Aston by-election.
11 January 2023
Global political trends in 2022: a 'progressive wave'?
Recent commentary has suggested politics in 2022 witnessed a progressive wave - a global trend towards parties of the Left. While this is legitimate if you are content to look at just the UK and USA, the global picture is much more complex.
13 December 2022
Was there really a 'greenslide' in Victoria's election?
It is worthwhile to assess the true character of the performance of the Greens in the recent Victorian Legislative assembly election.
23 November 2022
Victorian election: return of Labor government likely amid tightening polls
It is very difficult to get a clear picture of what is likely to happen in the Victorian election on Saturday.
10 June 2022
Early lessons from the 2022 election
The famous American writer, economist and political activist, John Kenneth Galbraith said in 1967: This is a year when the people are right and the politicians are wrong.
10 May 2022
Probability websites are picking Labor to win
I am much too scarred by the 2019 experience to make an election prediction in 2022. However, as I remain fascinated by the prospects and challenges in the remainder of the election campaign, I have studied the two websites I am aware of which are trying to assess the probabilities of various election outcomes based on polling and, in one case, other data. The Poll Bludger website provides the best overview of polling data but does not attempt to use it to make forecasts. In a recent edition the poll bludger referred to two websites which are attempting...
25 April 2022
What will happen in the Senate election?
The outcome of the Senate election is not as important as the outcome of the House of Reps election, but it does matter.
29 March 2022
The key lessons from the South Australian election
The first federal election lesson I would draw from the recent South Australian election is: the polls got it right. This combined with the significant differential in the performance of female candidates in the election could have a profound impact on the forthcoming federal election.
4 March 2022
Green preferences may decide seats for Independent candidates
Results from the 2019 federal election and the Willoughby by-election suggest that green preferences are likely to decide whether Independent candidates can win previously safe coalition seats.
17 February 2022
Macron more likely to be reelected than Morrison
Given their recent history, it is ironic that Macron and Morrison will come up for election at very close to the same time.
26 January 2022
It's a tough road, but minor players look like having a major role in 2022 poll
Independents are running strong at this year's federal election, putting a hung parliament into play. The challenges they face for a successful candidacy remain high, however.
6 January 2022
A battle within the battle for Canberra: can ACT banish Liberals from Senate?
Could Liberal senator Zed Seselja be put to the sword by Canberrans at the 2022 election? A mix of scenarios emphasises the possibility.
25 November 2021
The small talk about Albanese and small targets is wrong
The notion that the federal Labor leader is running a small-target strategy ahead of next year's election flies in the face of the facts.
15 October 2021
Dodging the debt trap: a better way to compete with China in our region
Australia could use a small fraction of the money committed to nuclear-powered submarines to co-operate with our friends in a more cost-effective and quicker way to check China's regional influence.
30 September 2021
The biggest issue for the 2022 federal election is the Uluru Statement from the Heart
There are many issues in contention between the major parties at the next federal election. The biggest question to be determined by that election is the nature of our response to the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
14 September 2021
German Social Democrats' success would have a ripple effect in EU and beyond
On current trends the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is likely to lead a coalition government after the federal elections on September 26.
5 September 2021
Will Clive Palmer's money get Craig Kelly reelected?
With Craig Kelly joining the United Australia Party (UAP), what impact will he and Clive Palmer have on the next federal election?
23 August 2021
Governing is hard, just get on with it
In the face of declining trust in our federal government we need a government which will get on with the hard business of governing.
25 July 2021
Possibilities for the next federal election
Now that the redistributions in Victoria and WA are completed we can begin to assess the possibilities for the next federal election. Imperfect as it is polling offers some interesting insights.
4 July 2021
Independent candidates are on the rise - and that may not be all bad
The reinstatement of Barnaby Joyce combined with demographic changes raises the possibility that more independents will be elected at the next federal election. A run-down of the most likely electorates.
3 June 2021
It is not all doom and gloom for Labor votors
The published polling data does not support the prevailing orthodoxy that the ALP is trailing, failing to catch up and headed to inevitable defeat.
9 May 2021
Fairfax's polling bias
Progressives should not necessarily be concerned about the Crosby Textor connection of the new SMH and Age pollster. The key question is how the polls are reported.
13 April 2021
WA election: an untold story
The main story about the WA election is the scale of the Labor victory. However, there is an untold story: the total failure of the don't give Labor total control message.
7 May 2020
SEAN INNIS and BOB MCMULLAN. Restarting Australian democracy Part Two
The performance of National Cabinet has been the administrative success story of the pandemic. Cooperative and decisive action at the top of our federation has been crucial to successful management of the virus. It is clear that National Cabinet should continue until current restrictions have been removed. But what then?
22 December 2019
BOB MCMULLAN. Lessons for Labour from Labor
The crushing defeat of the British Labour Party was much worse than that suffered by the Australian Labour Party earlier in the year. However, there were some disturbing similarities and some common lessons to be learnt. The ALP is fortunate to have had the Emerson/Weatherill Review. The British Labour Party needs to do something similar.