Geoff Miller
Geoff Miller is a former diplomat and government official. He was Director-General, Office of National Assessments, deputy secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and High Commissioner to New Zealand.
Geoff's recent articles
9 November 2024
Can Trump make the Planet Safe, as well as America Great?
Trump’s stated positions on major international issues, e.g. climate change and the value and importance of multilateral institutions, both political and economic, and on particular issues such as Ukraine, the Middle East and relations with China, give grounds for plenty of concern when compared with Australian interests and policies.
13 September 2024
Avoiding an 'exclusion' disaster in the Pacific – a different lesson from Ukraine
The most senior US officials, including President Joe Biden himself, refer to US alliances with individual or groups of countries in the Indo-Pacific as benign and defensive in nature. These references contrast with warnings about the possible “knock-on” effect of a Russian victory in Ukraine which, it is said, could encourage China to seek to incorporate Taiwan by force. However, an examination of the situation in Europe provides a different lesson for our part of the world; that is that building an alliance system which excludes the most important country in a region can have disastrous effects.
26 August 2024
AUKUS: Submarines afloat in — and perhaps causing — a sea of troubles
In the wording of the Ministerial Statement after the recent AUSMIN meeting between Australian and US Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs, and in a subsequent on-the-record conversation, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles strongly endorsed both AUKUS and a greater US defence presence in Australia. Unfortunately there are questions about AUKUS which the Government has never answered, and about how the US Government sees itself possibly using the stronger military presence which it is establishing in Australia and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific.
13 June 2024
Shangri-la Security Dialogue heralds important shift in Australia’s language on China
The 21st Shangri-la Security Dialogue, held in Singapore between 31 May and 2 June, saw the United States’ Secretary of Defence unveil a new way to describe his country’s Asia-Pacific policy, and hold a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart. China was unyielding on its “core interests”. Australian Defence Minister Marles embraced the “global rules-based order” and drew a sharp distinction between Russia and China, which he invited to abide by “the order’s” rules.
4 June 2024
North Asian Summit: hedging against the United States?
The Prime Ministers of China, Japan and South Korea met in Seoul on 27 May to resume regular annual meetings which began in 2008 and were held annually until 2019, when they were interrupted by COVID and “aspects of the international situation”.
16 May 2024
Another road for “Made in Australia”
In spruiking their coming “Future Made in Australia” policies PM Albanese and Treasurer Chalmers have singled out for a possible government “helping hand” projects designed to promote our role in their hoped-for future renewable, green economy. But if government “helping hands” are thinkable they could be applied in other areas as well. One area crying out for attention is in establishing and supporting employment-creating projects and businesses in the Northern Territory.
21 April 2024
‘To Boldly Go’---but not so far as to replace the private sector
The Government’s foreshadowed bill for a “Future Made in Australia” has been met with two very different kinds of response, one positive, welcoming the prospect of initiatives from the Government to support and promote investment in forward-leaning projects and the “industries of the future”, the other negative, saying that governments should stay out of private sectors’ business, risk creating distortions if they don’t, and in Australia’s case that we shouldn’t try to compete with much bigger countries like the US and China, able to swamp any subsidies we might give our industries.
18 March 2024
ASEAN Summit a timely background for this weeks talks with China
The recent ASEAN-Australia Summit in Melbourne was widely well received. Leaders of all member countries, except Myanmar, attended. Some---President Marcos of the Philippines and Prime Minister Anwar of Malaysia---also carried out quite extensive individual programs. Speeches and comments reflected general agreement, and there was an impressive list of follow-up practical actions, many of them with a substantial Australian financial contribution.
16 October 2023
The Wily Occidentals
Can Australia reconcile the American and Chinese strands of its foreign policy?
23 July 2023
The US in Australia---and in China!
The coming week will see an enormous festival of US alliances with and in Australia, with the biggest Talisman Sabre exercise ever, and a visit to Australia by the US Secretaries of State and Defence for the annual AUSMIN talks. All of this has been made more glamorous by the arrival of a new US warship, commissioned as USS Canberra while here.
6 June 2023
Shangri-la Dialogue:some Americans just dont get China
Prime Minister Albanese spoke moderately and positively at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, although his address didnt really live up to its prior publicity. However the main impression from the exchanges at the Dialogue was of the differences between the US and China. Amazingly, the American Secretary of Defence didnt seem to realise that the US continuing to keep the Chinese Defence Minister on some kind of sanctions black-list would affect the latters willingness to engage in bilateral talks.
3 May 2023
North Korea: same old, or another ticking bomb?
Continued missile testing by North Korea invites the question, why do they do it? Its tempting to regard it as just what they do, but is that all there is to it? Is it urgent but not important? What about the response?
20 April 2023
The Asia-Pacific:strategic equilibrium, not primacy
When there has been so much loose talk about what would be a catastrophic war between the worlds two major powers, it is both significant and welcome that Foreign Minister Penny Wong has authoritatively stated her position that the Asia-Pacific is a multipolar region, and that this is Australias national policy at this time.
5 April 2023
A long game---peace in the Asia-Pacific
Perhaps Australia should play the long game, and do everything we can to avoid a war in the Pacific, not just work out how we might take part in one.
10 March 2023
AUKUS: A greedy pup
It seems that poor old Albanese has been sold a very greedy---though only virtual---pup. Think of the comparison with another Labor PM, Ben Chifley. Albanese doesnt come out of it very well.
8 March 2023
For Australia, horror of war over Taiwan is not inevitable
Contributors to the War with China over Taiwan horror show which began in the Nine newspapers this week assume that a war between China and the United States is likely, and some of them then explicitly say that Australia would be involved. Australia should instead regard the Taiwan issue as one for us to sit out.
9 September 2022
The Defence Strategic Review: We should regard the Taiwan issue as one for us to 'sit out'
It is almost impossible to imagine any realistic circumstances, short of general war in the Asia-Pacific, under which China would launch a military attack on Australia.
11 May 2022
What Ministers in a new Government should do - climate change, China-US relations and our region
Foreign policy must be one of the areas where any government can find itself most constrained by the circumstances it has to deal with---events, dear boy, events, as former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan once said. But given that, even in the most pressing state of affairs a government can choose where it directs its discretionary resources.
26 April 2022
Australia is still in Fear of China
The former eminent Australian diplomat Sir James Plimsoll once described China as a big fact. It is big, and it is a fact, and we have to get used to it.
28 March 2022
Australia-China relations:will face trump trade?
Chinas refusal to deal with Australia at Ministerial level is likely to frustrate its effort to join an important Pacific trade agreement.
9 March 2022
Ukraine, India, China and Australia:a Khaki election?
Prime Minister Morrison seems to want to fix in concrete what he says he and we should most fear---a Russia-China alliance of autocracies. He treats similar responses to the Ukraine crisis by China and by our fellow Quad member India very differently. Could the coming election be the reason?
20 February 2022
The Quad: its the US playing catch-up with China, but where does it lead?
For the emergence of a sustainable and mutually tolerable Pacific strategic system we should be aiming to make that system inclusive, not split down the middle with Quad.
15 February 2022
Now you see what its like in Ukraine
In massing large numbers of troops near the Ukraine Putin may have been aiming to show NATO and the West how Russia---and Putin himself in particular---has felt over the years as the Western alliance and NATO crept ever closer to Russias borders.
25 November 2021
China-Australia relations: A way out of the freeze?
Chinas stated wish to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could, if we are skilful, give us a path to promote the restoration of more normal diplomatic relations.
16 September 2021
The 'forever submarines' go nuclear
The nuclear submarine deal intensifies Australia's military cooperation with the US. It will be up to our regional neighbours to decide whether, as Scott Morrison says, the deal will help and not hinder them.
24 August 2021
Strategic stances at an uncertain time
The unimpressive end to the United States commitment to Afghanistan emphasises the questions facing Australia in regard to the future security of the Asia-Pacific. Different approaches are being put forward, including greater self-reliance, and greater involvement with the US.
21 August 2021
Both Afghanistan and the US at an uncertain time
Its possible, and much to be hoped, that some of the worst fears for the Afghan people under the Taliban will not be realised. But the United States standing in the world has been damaged.
4 August 2021
Defence cooperation with the US at an uncertain time
Only by acknowledging China's importance in the region while working with others to influence, if we can, their approach and actions can we achieve the peaceful, prosperous and stable region that we want to live in.
31 December 2020
The world after 2020
What a year 2020 was for Australia, with first the fires and then the pandemic. Now at the end of it, were still confronted with the challenges of climate change in the shape of floods, not fires, and our Prime Minister unable to get a speaking slot at an international climate change conference.
29 October 2020
The main game must be to get US, China relations on a better footing
Whoever wins the imminent US Presidential election, US-China relations will continue to be the most important geo-political issue for the world, and for Australia.
26 July 2020
US, China, Australia. Now we know what were getting into: a full-fledged anti-China campaign
Very recent actions by the US and Australian governments, and statements in both countries, make it clear that our Foreign and Defence Ministers will be invited to sign on to a full-fledged anti-China campaign and even a coalition when in the US this week.
23 July 2020
US, China, Australia: what are we getting into?
Next week our Foreign and Defence Ministers will visit the US to meet their US counterparts, at the latters invitation. Is the aim to recruit us to the United States anti-China campaign?
5 July 2020
Australias Defence: All the way with the USA, again?
The PMs July speech launching the new strategic documents presents an alarming picture of the state of our immediate region, on which he says the Government will focus.
21 June 2020
The US and China: can peer competitors cooperate?
Extensive talks in Hawaii on 18 June between US Secretary of State Pompeo and Chinese Politburo member responsible for international affairs, Yang Jiechi, could have been a significant step in the two powers difficult relationship, but security has been tight and what they achieved is not yet clear.
10 June 2020
GEOFF MILLER. 'G5-Eyes': a very strange economic grouping.
According to a report in The Australian of 8 June Treasurer Frydenberg has led the push and succeeded in establishing a series of regular and formal economic dialogue meetings among the countries that make up the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group.
12 April 2020
GEOFF MILLER: After the Pandemic; more self-reliance, more costs too.
Australia will want and need to play a meaningful role in mitigating these consequences. This will be a significant load on top of restoring our own economy, but will be crucial to our place in the Asia-Pacific, and should from the start be an integral part of our recovery planning.
16 February 2020
GEOFF MILLER; United States; Portraying the policy reality.
Recently the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command spoke in Sydney. He criticised Chinas behaviour in very strong terms, but in talking about the United States role and attitudes he described a set of policies that no longer exist.
7 January 2020
GEOFF MILLER: Trump, North Korea, Iran.
Trumps decision to order the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani is understandably dominating coverage and analysis of world affairs, completely overshadowing consideration of Kim Jong Uns end of year statement, even though it had been somewhat anxiously awaited.
22 October 2019
GEOFF MILLER. The Good American.
Even a good American uses language in regard to China that raises questions about Americas stance in its envisaged long existential struggle with China.
3 July 2019
GEOFF MILLER: Trump in North Asia; policy changes?
A lot of the reactions to President Trumps visits to the G20 in Osaka and to Korea have been scathing, but there are some positive signs in regard to both US-China trade issues and negotiations with North Korea. But having encouraged hard-line one-dimensional attitudes on both issues within the US, Trump may find that maintaining his apparent new-found flexibility runs up against domestic political opposition, including from within his own party.
20 January 2019
GEOFFREY MILLER. Intelligence and the function of government. (Australian Outlook 9.1.2019)
Intelligence and the Function of Government, edited by Daniel Baldino and Rhys Crawley, contains a great deal of useful material on the Australian Intelligence Community (AIC), intelligence issues and intelligence in relation to government. It consists of 12 chapters, covering topics such as the history of the AIC, intelligence as an academic discipline and, very importantly, the dissemination of intelligence to and within the government.
16 December 2018
GEOFF MILLER; Whatever Happened to North Korea?
There was a lot of scepticism about the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim and what it might produce, but some sort of process between North Korea and the US seemed the logical next step. However, while further summits between North and South Korea have taken place, and there has been actual progress between the two and plans for more, nothing appears to be happening at a senior level between the Unites States and North Korea. And in the absence of such movement the whole North Korean issue, so recently the centre of world attention, has been well and truly...
24 September 2018
GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit---what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves will depend very much on what the principals really want.
2 September 2018
GEOFF MILLER. Challenges facing the new foreign policy team.
There are many uncertainties and unresolved issues facing the new government within its own ranks. These are paralleled by the international situation it has to deal with. As former Prime Minister Turnbull said in his introduction to last years Foreign Policy White Paper, change, unprecedented in its scale and pace, is the tenor of our times.
15 August 2018
GEOFF MILLER. Trump and the World Trade Organisation.
Many US non-governmental trade experts describe the Trump Administrations actions in regard to tariffs and the WTO and its Appellate Body as illegal, and as threatening the WTOs continued existence.
7 August 2018
GEOFF MILLER. Trumps unilateral use of economic power: will it work, and what about the consequences?
Trumps actual and threatened use of the United States economic power to bring about changes in other States behaviour raises questions about the utility of such behaviour and its likely consequences, as well as about the United States commitment to multi-lateral institutions.
29 July 2018
GEOFF MILLER. Iran: No bombing until..
Its a relief that last week's story has been hosed down both here and in the US, but causes for concern remain.
17 June 2018
GEOFF MILLER. Trump-Kim Summit: What happens after a day from a science fiction movie?
Kim Jong Un was reported to have said that his meeting with Trump was like scenes from a science fiction movie. At times the TV coverage---all those banners---did seem rather like that, but what happens next? I think that at least the medium-term outcome could be much more like the Chinese and Russian prescription of twin freezes than the complete, verifiable, irrevocable nuclear disarmament of North Korea sought by the United States.
31 May 2018
GEOFF MILLER. The US-North Korea Negotiations: Death to Forecasters!
The pre-negotiation process going on between the US and North Korea is volatile and opaque, but a few points seem to have emerged. James Bond novels used to feature a sinister Soviet organisation called SMERSH---short for Death to Spies in Russian. The twists and reversals in the process that may lead to a Trump-Kim summit have been so extreme that they could be called Death to Forecasters, or commentators. But a few points can be made.