Recent articles by John McCarthy
12 January 2025
After the Trump inauguration
American presidential inaugurations traditionally nurture a sense of unity, pride and aspiration — drawing on the quality of American oratory brought to mind by John Kennedy and Barack Obama — that causes emotions to soar.
19 November 2024
Trump Redux: what matters to foreign relations
As the novelty of Donald Trump’s win wears off, we have moved beyond the superficialities of the views of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ambassador Kevin Rudd about the Trump agenda and persona.
8 August 2024
Rediscovering Australia’s Asian destiny
Australia must awaken a spirit of enquiry and zest about our region and the belief that our destiny as a nation rests there.
7 March 2024
Comprehensive upgrade puts Australia in Vietnams top tier
The conclusion of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership by two states leads few observers to experience frissons of excitement. However, the Partnership agreed yesterday between Anthony Albanese and Vietnamese Prime Minister Phan Minh Chinh is more than an announceable wrought by officials to garner a headline or two for their principals.
12 February 2024
2024 Election: Indonesias Prabowo will not rule in anyones shadow
On 14 February, Indonesia holds simultaneous elections for the presidency and national and regional legislatures. The runes suggest the current Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto is on track to be the next President. He will not be boring.
12 December 2023
State sanctioned killings are not the image of India we are used to
The revelations in recent weeks of Indian government involvement in the assassination in Vancouver of a Sikh separatist - and in a conspiracy to murder another in New York - may turn out to be what those in the diplomatic business call manageable.
17 August 2023
What the Voice means for Australias reputation
The outcome of the Voice referendum will affect Australias reputation a fact voters should consider, writes John McCarthy.
4 July 2023
Indonesia could help bring China and US back from the brink
Widodo visit: Indonesias approach to regional security needs to be more than than fence-sitting.
26 June 2023
Time to heed the Global South
The so-called Global South does not feature much in Australian discourse. It should. It will impact on us.
6 May 2023
Vale Allan Gyngell
Perhaps now - more than ever - is the time when Australia needs outstanding foreign policy thinkers. It has lost one of its best with the death of Allan Gyngell after a short illness.
5 March 2023
Ukraine anniversary
The anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine war gives us pause to reflect on recent global shifts which affect our security.
8 February 2023
Vale Richard Woolcott: one of the last great Australian diplomats
Richard Woolcott leaves a legacy that all modern diplomats could emulate.
11 September 2022
There is more to Sri Lanka than boats and the Rajapaksa family
In the past 15 years, Australians have become used to thinking of Sri Lanka mainly as an island from where boats filled with asylees - and other venturesome folk - seek illegally to reach our shores.
11 August 2022
The Pelosi provocation-All Politics Is Local until it isn't
Years ago, one of Nancy Pelosis most noteworthy predecessors as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Tip ONeill, uttered the famous phrase: All politics is local. These words may have been on Pelosis mind when she decided to go to Taiwan.
6 July 2022
The international prime minister
Anthony Albanese is right to be taking time to meet key international leaders in his early days. But he faces a bigger task at home to create awareness of the growing challenges Australia faces in its immediate region.
24 May 2022
Foreign policy needs priority and balance
In the 1972 film, The Candidate, Robert Redford played a United States Senate hopeful, who, having unexpectedly won, turned to his political strategist and asked, Marvin, what do we do now?
1 February 2022
Ukraine defeat would smash the West's global reputation.
Putin won't go home without concessions from NATO, but that would involve a climbdown by the alliance that would damage the West's reputation.
7 December 2021
Its time for Australia to be a smart power country
Australia has paid scant attention to the exercise of 'soft' power in recent years, but its effective use is a matter of national interest.
26 September 2021
AUKUS: We are moving fast from being a country with the self-respect of true independence.
The main British objective under their appalling political leadership seems to be to find something meaningful to do after the Brexit debacle... Joe Biden could not even remember Scott Morrisons name.
5 September 2021
The shame of Kabul
Australias messy exit from Kabul is likely to be recorded in history as a moment of national ignominy.
14 July 2021
Afghanistan visa issue shows what Australia really is
The current debate about visas for Afghans poses questions about the sort of people we are.
21 June 2021
G7: Australia on the world stage for the wrong reasons
In summits, those involved never get everything they want. The trick is to persuade your audience particularly your domestic one that you have got most of it.
1 May 2021
Australia needs to draw a line between policy and posturing on China
The past few weeks have confirmed that the strategic parameters of our regional policy are basically sound. However, the self-righteousness of some of our statements and actions demonstrate overreach inconsistent with the national interest.
26 April 2021
The Biden-Suga agreement shows the importance of the Western Pacific
The primary importance of the Biden-Suga summit is that Mr Suga was the first foreign leader to be received by President Biden in Washington. The second such visitor will be President Moon of South Korea - not Britains Boris Johnson or Germanys Angela Merkel. Israels Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is nowhere in sight.
16 March 2021
Can soft power contain China?
The Quad had its origins in efforts to deal collectively with the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, an effective use of soft power. Since then the Quad has grown haphazardly into a regional vehicle for the United States, Japan, India and Australia to make common cause against China.
22 February 2021
Skilled operators: Europe is back in the Indo Pacific
The US might be coming back to the region, but so too is Europe, a nod to the fact that the central locus of global economic weight and geopolitical activity has moved. However, we need to beware the excessive zeal of Boris Johnson.
10 January 2021
Trump, the Capitol and the erosion of reputation
Can a country so bitterly divided be an effective global leader. Its system is seen to have failed. It is perceived as at war with itself . ...Americas international reputation has tumbled mightily.
26 November 2020
Biden and South East Asia (Asialink Nov 24, 2020
Three weeks after the election, there is plenty of evidence that Biden and the emerging Democrat foreign policy team -in-waiting appreciate the strategic challenges facing President Elect Biden both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
17 November 2020
What will Australia and Japan want from Joe Biden? (AFR Nov 16, 2020)
Mr. Morrisons foreign policy initiatives usually suggest determination rather than calibration. But todays visit to Tokyo is notable for both. In the time of Corona, it is gutsy in domestic terms -and considered international policy.
25 October 2020
The dangers of excessive foreign policy zeal in dealing with China.
We have displayed excessive zeal in embarking on wholesale policing of university agreements with foreign institutions, in the highly publicised raids on a third-tier Labor politician in Sydney who has no access to issues relevant to our national security, in the questioning of Chinese journalists here and, above all, in the much publicised attempt to spotlight China on the origins of Covid-19 at a time when global common cause in combatting the disease is crucial.
20 October 2020
Thailand's political fault lines grow
The Bangkok student demonstrations over the past few weeks represent another of the manifestations of discontent about Thai governance, which, over the past couple of generations, have burst through the fault lines of the Thai polity.
9 September 2020
Biden and Australia (Asia Link Sep 8, 2020)
With the polls pointing to a Joe Biden victory in the US presidential race, the stakes for Australia, and its interests in a stable Indo-Pacific, are high. Former ambassador to the United States and Asialink senior adviser John McCarthy breaks down some of the likely foreign policy trends under a Biden presidency and points to some key tests for Australia in managing a new administration in Washington.
3 August 2020
After AUSMIN: How to Ensure Strong Ties to the US and Asia
Following the Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) on 28 July, former ambassador to Washington, John McCarthy, argues our strengthening alliance with the US does not preclude building closer relations with Asia, including a potential modus vivendi with China.
8 July 2020
Japan is handling relations with China better than Australia.
Scott Morrison is shortly to have a virtual meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Abe, to be followed by an official visit to Japan when COVID 19 permits. Morrison is taking Japan seriously. Good.
21 June 2020
Vietnam's remarkable rise deserves more attention from Canberra
Vietnams response to COVID-19 has highlighted its competence as a country. It has unequivocally won the peace. It manages its relations with China with firmness and diplomacy.
21 April 2020
Covid-19, Trump, Xi and Canberra (AFR 22.4.2020)
Australias decision to spearhead an international enquiry into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic read Chinas lack of transparency and the WHOs mistakes is a nice hoary bellow from our domestic political ramparts, but it is a policy mistake.
6 April 2020
JOHN MCCARTHY. Beyond the Pandemic
Australia can no longer rely on the US for our security shield. Australia must secure longterm multilateral structures with our south-east Asian neighbours in order to better prepare ourselves for the world after the COVID-19 pandemic.
26 January 2020
JOHN MCCARTHY. Reflections on the Accidental Independence of East Timor.(The Strategist 18.1.2020)
Every country has its legends. They may be important to national self-esteem, but theyre not necessarily good history.
8 October 2019
JOHN MCCARTHY. The Morrison Doctrine.
Dear Prime Minister, I see you are developing a foreign policy doctrine of your own. Good. We havent had one for a while. Congratulations on taking this stuff seriously. The management of our external environment will be your toughest job as Prime minister. Our external challenges are of a scale not seen since the Pacific War.
22 August 2019
Forging a national consensus on Australias external security (The Strategist, 19 Aug 2019)
With the federal election out of the way, and some welcome stability in the leadership of the major political parties in prospect, Australia now faces the challenge of forging a national consensus on an external security policy that reflects our self-confidence and maturity as a nation.
28 July 2019
JOHN MCCARTHY. Enter, Boris.
Engaging in meetings and over dinner in London recently with British figures observing or involved in the Brexit process brought home that, while Australians follow the Brexit drama, we know little of its detail. We enjoy the sport, but try explaining the Irish Backstop in your local pub.
14 July 2019
JOHN McCARTHY. The Darroch Affair.
The comments from Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to Washington, in a wad of his classified messages to London are a juicy read. President Trump radiates insecurity while his administration is uniquely dysfunctional and riven by knife fights. Trump could very well crash and burn. Leaked to the Mail on Sunday, they have cost him his job.
8 May 2019
JOHN McCARTHY. Time to Focus on Foreign Policy for the Sake of Australias Future (Asialink).
Australians face a set of decisions in foreign policy arguably more important to us than any national decisions since the Second World War, writes John McCarthy, former ambassador to Washington, Tokyo, Jakarta and New Delhi.How we navigate them could even have existential implications.
9 April 2019
Indonesia and Australia
On 17 April Indonesia goes to the polls. Shortly thereafter Australia will do the same. We will again need to thinkaboutIndonesia.
16 October 2018
JOHN MCCARTHY. The Jerusalem Embassy,Iran and our national interest
Prime Minister Morrisons announcements of a potential move of our embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and less newsworthy but nonetheless significant, of a review of our support for the Iran Nuclear Deal, threaten seriously to prejudice the Australian national interest.
30 April 2018
JOHN McCARTHY. Australian foreign policy needs more silence.
Simon and Garfunkel sangof the dangers of the sound of silence. But in Australian Foreign Policy, we need more of it.
16 August 2017
JOHN McCARTHY. The West needs to talk about Russia.
The place Russia occupies in the political maelstrom in Washington, the recent sanctions bills in Congress and Putins cuts to the American diplomatic presence in Russia are driving the USs relationshipand hence the Wests relationshipwith Russia from bad to worse. However, the following thoughtsfrom a Russia neophyte after a trip to Moscow and road journey to Archangel on the Arctic circleare thrown into the mix, if only to colour reflections on what might, one day, make sense.
8 December 2016
JOHN McCARTHY. Preparing for Trump
ANZUS has morphed from an alliance to a sacrosanct ethos to which all Australians are supposed to subscribe. It is time it went back to what it was supposed to be - an alliance. ... To differ with the Americans may require political courage of an order to which the Australian political class are unaccustomed.