Michael Keating

Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.

Michael's recent articles

Making polluters pay could fix Australia’s climate problem – and its budget

Making polluters pay could fix Australia’s climate problem – and its budget

A new report shows how making polluters pay will not only diminish the threat from climate change, but it can also help restore the budget and the economy.

Mark Carney – Values: an economist's guide to everything that matters

Mark Carney – Values: an economist's guide to everything that matters

Mark Carney argues that treating price as a proxy for value has driven crises in finance, health and climate. His book offers a roadmap for rebuilding trust, fairness and resilience.

Australia’s economic growth forecasts look upbeat – but the foundations are shaky

Australia’s economic growth forecasts look upbeat – but the foundations are shaky

According to the government the economy is strengthening, but the risks are all on the downside, especially the projection that productivity will grow significantly faster than it has over the previous 15 years.

Best of 2025 - Why Labor can’t be bold without confronting tax reform

Best of 2025 - Why Labor can’t be bold without confronting tax reform

If the Albanese government wants to deliver lasting reform – in education, healthcare, housing and climate – it will have to confront the hardest political question of all: how to raise the revenue to pay for it.

Best of 2025 - Assessing the Liberal Party's policy-making capacity

Best of 2025 - Assessing the Liberal Party's policy-making capacity

Good policy should be evidence-based. But this is not the case with the Liberals energy policy and seems unlikely with their migration policy.

Best of 2025 - The debate about net zero ignores the evidence

Best of 2025 - The debate about net zero ignores the evidence

Those in the Coalition who are opposed to targeting net zero carbon emissions, argue that it will cost too much. But that claim is false and not supported by the evidence. How can they get away with it?

Trump is delusional about Venezuelan oil

Trump is delusional about Venezuelan oil

Trump is banking on Venezuela’s vast oil reserves to justify US intervention. But the state of the industry, global energy shifts and basic economics point to failure.

Best of 2025 - Trump’s risky American economy

Best of 2025 - Trump’s risky American economy

Trump’s tariffs, migration and fiscal policies are endangering the American economy, and risk destroying American claims to global leadership.

Best of 2025 - Superannuation and the Canberra Press Gallery's fantasies

Best of 2025 - Superannuation and the Canberra Press Gallery's fantasies

The Canberra Press Gallery was completely absorbed with the supposed politics of last week’s superannuation changes and completely failed to consider their merits and why the changes were therefore made.

Best of 2025 - Inequality and the future of democracy

Best of 2025 - Inequality and the future of democracy

Rising inequality and declining living standards have posed a threat to democracy in several democracies, but so far not in Australia. However, the increasing inequality of wealth, driven by housing becoming unaffordable without rich parents, is a threat.

Best of 2025 - How important is an Albanese-Trump meeting?

Best of 2025 - How important is an Albanese-Trump meeting?

Trump’s record suggests that meetings with him frequently fail. Instead, Albanese has an important agenda to pursue at the UN in New York, and when dealing with the US better outcomes are more likely if Australia develops its own policies in its own interests.

Best of 2025 - Intergenerational equity and tax reform

Best of 2025 - Intergenerational equity and tax reform

Much of the discussion about the need for tax reform to preserve intergenerational equity is confused. The main challenges facing young people, in particular, are the limitations on the supply of housing and climate change.

Best of 2025 - An economic reform agenda for Labor

Best of 2025 - An economic reform agenda for Labor

The recent election was won by looking ahead. But a better economic future requires an economic reform agenda, and getting agreement will not be easy. However, there are encouraging signs that the government is up to the task.

Australia’s cost-of-living crisis has a housing problem

Australia’s cost-of-living crisis has a housing problem

Cost-of-living pressures dominate political debate, but the sharpest strain is not falling incomes. It is housing costs, particularly for first-home buyers, fuelled by stagnant productivity and chronic undersupply where people want to live.

Expert independent evidence-based assessment

Expert independent evidence-based assessment

This month we are asking readers to support our work through a tax deductible donation via the Australian Cultural Fund. Regular author, Michael Keating writes about the value of Pearls and Irritations.

Why Labor can’t be bold without confronting tax reform

Why Labor can’t be bold without confronting tax reform

If the Albanese government wants to deliver lasting reform – in education, healthcare, housing and climate – it will have to confront the hardest political question of all: how to raise the revenue to pay for it.

Assessing the Liberal Party's policy-making capacity

Assessing the Liberal Party's policy-making capacity

Good policy should be evidence-based. But this is not the case with the Liberals energy policy and seems unlikely with their migration policy.

The debate about net zero ignores the evidence

The debate about net zero ignores the evidence

Those in the Coalition who are opposed to targeting net zero carbon emissions, argue that it will cost too much. But that claim is false and not supported by the evidence. How can they get away with it?

Trump’s risky American economy

Trump’s risky American economy

Trump’s tariffs, migration and fiscal policies are endangering the American economy, and risk destroying American claims to global leadership.

Superannuation and the Canberra Press Gallery's fantasies

Superannuation and the Canberra Press Gallery's fantasies

The Canberra Press Gallery was completely absorbed with the supposed politics of last week’s superannuation changes and completely failed to consider their merits and why the changes were therefore made.

The migration debate in Australia

The migration debate in Australia

Australia’s population growth rate is returning to normal. Instead, of cutting migration, the solution to Australia’s housing crisis is to increase the rate of new dwelling approvals and completions.

Inequality and the future of democracy

Inequality and the future of democracy

Rising inequality and declining living standards have posed a threat to democracy in several democracies, but so far not in Australia. However, the increasing inequality of wealth, driven by housing becoming unaffordable without rich parents, is a threat.

How important is an Albanese-Trump meeting?

How important is an Albanese-Trump meeting?

Trump’s record suggests that meetings with him frequently fail. Instead, Albanese has an important agenda to pursue at the UN in New York, and when dealing with the US better outcomes are more likely if Australia develops its own policies in its own interests.

The Liberal Party's economic strategy

The Liberal Party's economic strategy

Liberal Party leader Sussan Ley claims too many of us are too dependent on government. But where is the evidence, with government income support in Australia being more tightly targeted than in any other country?

Intergenerational equity and tax reform

Intergenerational equity and tax reform

Much of the discussion about the need for tax reform to preserve intergenerational equity is confused. The main challenges facing young people, in particular, are the limitations on the supply of housing and climate change.

Ditch AUKUS Pillar One. It involves Australia too much in US strategy

Ditch AUKUS Pillar One. It involves Australia too much in US strategy

Defence Minister Richard Marles said in June that if war broke out between the US and China, Australia would inevitably be involved.

The economic reform roundtable and taxation

The economic reform roundtable and taxation

Taxation is on the agenda of the Economic Reform Roundtable and, despite Albanese’s reluctance to consider tax changes, it will be impossible to achieve Labor’s goals without reform to raise more revenue.

Economic reform and the productivity slowdown

Economic reform and the productivity slowdown

The productivity slowdown is mostly due to slower technological progress. The economic reform agenda should focus on measures to improve competitive pressures for firms to innovate and improve.

Trump's fantasies and the American economy

Trump's fantasies and the American economy

Donald Trump’s bluster is likely to lead to lower American living standards and higher inflation. But his advisers want to keep their jobs, and won’t tell him that.

Albo's steady-as-she goes strategy – will it work?

Albo's steady-as-she goes strategy – will it work?

Anthony Albanese has made it clear that we cannot expect a more ambitious government strategy in future, despite the size of his election win.

A carbon tax and some key policy challenges

A carbon tax and some key policy challenges

A carbon tax will obviously help reduce carbon emissions and achievement of the net zero target, but it will also help raise the revenue needed to fund essential government services and promote Australia’s economic development.

An economic reform agenda for Labor

An economic reform agenda for Labor

The recent election was won by looking ahead. But a better economic future requires an economic reform agenda, and getting agreement will not be easy. However, there are encouraging signs that the government is up to the task.

How credible are the Coalition’s budget projections?

How credible are the Coalition’s budget projections?

The Coalition’s costings finally reveal that in the next two years it will have a bigger deficit than Labor. In the second half of the four-year projection, the forecast net positive impact from the Coalition’s policy changes is questionable.

How credible are the Coalition’s budget projections?

How credible are the Coalition’s budget projections?

The Coalition’s costings finally reveal that in the next two years it will have a bigger deficit than Labor. In the second half of the four-year projection, the forecast net positive impact from the Coalition’s policy changes is questionable.

Who will better manage the economy: Labor or the Coalition?

Who will better manage the economy: Labor or the Coalition?

People are being asked to vote for the Coalition on the grounds that it is better at managing the economy. But the current evidence does not back up that claim.

A minority Labor Government's policy agenda – Part 2

A minority Labor Government's policy agenda – Part 2

In this second part of this article, discussing the possible policy agenda for a minority Labor Government, the focus is on taxation and how to improve productivity – issues that are most difficult to agree on.

A minority Labor Government's policy agenda – Part 1

A minority Labor Government's policy agenda – Part 1

A minority Labor Government is widely seen as a likely outcome in the forthcoming election.

Housing affordability: Which party has better policies?

Housing affordability: Which party has better policies?

The housing policies announced in this election by both the Labor and Coalition Parties are seriously flawed.

Trump: a ridiculous ego and incredibly ignorant

Trump: a ridiculous ego and incredibly ignorant

The analysis underpinning Donald Trump’s tariff policy is fatally flawed. Thus, it will fail to achieve its objective of restoring the living standards of his MAGA supporters.

What could we expect from a Dutton Government?

What could we expect from a Dutton Government?

Peter Dutton’s budget reply Speech is full of distortions and many of the key polices are flawed or we cannot be sure they will work as intended. The Labor Party might be criticised as too cautious, but the Coalition is clearly not ready for government.

A cautious responsible budget

A cautious responsible budget

Labor’s pre-election budget provides well-targeted cost of living relief within the bounds of responsibility, but the restoration of living standards is some way off.

Minority government: what will it look like?

Minority government: what will it look like?

After the election Australia is likely to have a minority government with the independents, who will hold the balance of power, negotiating each issue on its merits. But democracy is best served if each independent states before the election which party they will support to form a government by guaranteeing supply.

Trump's tariffs will not restore American manufacturing

Trump's tariffs will not restore American manufacturing

The decline in manufacturing jobs is common to most developed economies and is not unique to the US. Further, Donald Trump is nothing if not delusional, and his tariffs will only damage both the US economy and others as well.

Dutton's war on waste

Dutton's war on waste

Contrary to what Peter Dutton would like the electorate to believe, reducing administrative waste will save very little money. If Dutton is serious, he would review major capital projects which lack proper evaluation, starting with his uneconomic nuclear energy proposal.

Interest rates should start falling now

Interest rates should start falling now

Australian inflation is almost back in the target range of 2-3%. The Reserve Bank should begin to cut interest rates now. This will help avoid a recession as well as substantially reducing cost-of-living pressures on the one third of households with a mortgage.

Reforms are needed to ensure an adequate retirement income

Reforms are needed to ensure an adequate retirement income

Australians now have access to significant superannuation balances, but if superannuation is going to meet its purpose of ensuring an adequate income in retirement, reforms are needed to provide better access to a superannuation pension.

President Trump and Australia's National Security

President Trump and Australia's National Security

Australia needs to try and persuade the Trump Administration that no country can expect to dominate our region and the benefits of cooperation. But if, as is likely, Trump refuses to accept a multipolar region then Australia must be prepared to act on its own and seek its security within Asia.

Which party is the more competent economic manager – Labor or Liberal?

Which party is the more competent economic manager – Labor or Liberal?

Judgments about economic management will be critical in the next election. Examination of their respective records and policies suggests that contrary to popular opinion, Labor is better than the Coalition.

Dutton's Economic Cons: household electricity bills to rise by $665 a year under Coalition

Dutton's Economic Cons: household electricity bills to rise by $665 a year under Coalition

Like Trump, Dutton likes to portray himself as a strong man. But appearances are not everything, and Dutton is pretty much an economic policy vacuum.

Trump's economic delusions

Trump's economic delusions

Trump’s economic strategy is based on a series of delusions that will result in higher inflation, a bigger trade deficit and a loss in the value of the American dollar. How can that Make America Great Again?

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