Robin Boyle

Robin Boyle lectured in statistics at Deakin University and preceding institutes for three decades until 2009. His academic background in mathematics, economics and finance, as well as statistics, led him to developing teaching software in those areas and to be widely sought after as a textbook author.

Robin's recent articles

The RBA is a moribund institution an incumbrance on the economy

The RBA is a moribund institution an incumbrance on the economy

For the last three decades the Reserve Bank of Australia has focused on just one economic goal a rate of inflation between 2 and 3 per cent. It is a goal they have pursued relentlessly since 1993, regardless of how effective or fair it is. Last Tuesday they increased the cash rate yet again. The Guardian summed up the pending possibility as A Melbourne Cup Day rate rise would not be tough on inflation, it would just be cruel.

Australias Covid-19 response inquiry: towards an integrated national disaster strategy?

Australias Covid-19 response inquiry: towards an integrated national disaster strategy?

The terms of reference for the Inquiry into the Commonwealth Government Covid-19 Response were released on the 21 September. Ostensibly the inquiry is to identify lessons learned to improve Australias preparedness for future pandemics. However, what if the next pandemic is nothing like Covid? And how prepared are we for other potential disasters?

Government outsourcing: Theres gold in them thar hills!

Government outsourcing: Theres gold in them thar hills!

Government outsourcing in Australia occurs in many ways. It can provide the best outcome for the community. But at the other extreme, it could mean a case of outright corruption. If there is inadequate monitoring and accountability, the Australian public at large could be short-changed due to dubious contracts and too much profiteering.

Neoliberalism, risk management and government failure

Neoliberalism, risk management and government failure

This economic fad is riddled with hypocrisy. The 'government off our back' brigade is quick to put their hand out to government when in trouble.

Fools rush in: Morrison's latest and worst Covid fiasco

Fools rush in: Morrison's latest and worst Covid fiasco

What kind of fool am I? The government has made mistake after mistake on COVID. It was silly of me to assume it wouldnt botch Omicron too.

A curate's egg: the many failures of Australia's vaccine rollout

A curate's egg: the many failures of Australia's vaccine rollout

Australia's COVID-19 vaccine rollout was shemozzle. In the second part of a two-part article, Robin Boyle reviews where we failed.

A curate's egg: measuring the successes of Australia's vaccine rollout

A curate's egg: measuring the successes of Australia's vaccine rollout

Against the odds, Australia's vaccine rollout has been largely successful. In the first part of a two-part article, Robin Boyle reviews what worked.

Fool's gold: Australia counts the cost of NSW's Covid arrogance

Fool's gold: Australia counts the cost of NSW's Covid arrogance

Gladys Berejiklian's petulant leadership and disregard for the rest of the country undermined national efforts to control the virus.

Vale the Doherty Model: Unloved by many and misunderstood by most

Vale the Doherty Model: Unloved by many and misunderstood by most

It is with great relief and pleasure that we announce the passing of DM, the Doherty Model.

Doherty has ditched the pledge to First Nations Australians

Doherty has ditched the pledge to First Nations Australians

The Doherty Institute says it's committed to Indigenous Australians, but it fails to protect marginalised communities.

Climate change and the impact of humans A graphical perspective

The recent report by the IPCC (the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is 'code red for humanity according to the UN Secretary-General. This warning is a timely reminder to review the role of humans in global warming due to rising greenhouse gas pollution.

We can complete a full mRNA rollout by end of 2021. Heres the plan

How many attempts do we give Scott Morrison to fix the ongoing Covid quarantine and vaccine rollout debacle? There have been mistakes, holdups with vaccine deliveries and unforeseen complications, but it is possible to develop a plan to get us out of the turmoil he has inflicted upon us, and do it by the end of 2021!

Australia's Covid vaccine rollout, Part 4. A good outcome by Christmas is possible

A move away from AstraZeneca is inevitable in Australias vaccine rollout, brought on by the need to reach herd immunity and to resolve the blood clot concerns. We forecast plenty of Pfizer arriving from after September, and the possibility of completing a high efficacy vaccine rollout by December. For the coming months, though, the rollout will inevitably be slowed at which time all Pfizer doses should go to those remaining in the most at-risk groups.

Australia's Covid vaccine rollout, Part 3. In June 2021 we are at the crossroads

The first week of June will be significant in Australias Covid story. Victoria had entered lockdown on Thursday 27 May after a case of community infection arrived via Adelaide. Another more dangerous variant would also appear. Australians would react with more heading out to get a jab, but not in sufficiently large enough numbers. Pressures were building for the government to dramatically change its vaccine strategy.

Australia's Covid vaccine rollout, Part 2. What weve been delivered

At a press conference about the vaccine rollout in December, Health Minister Greg Hunt said, our goal is to under-promise and over-deliver. Over January and February, the rollout was mapped out for us. However, the problems that soon developed were not a case of the best-laid plans going awry but more like a case of no plans at all! It was inevitable that what was promised would not be delivered.

Australia's Covid vaccine rollout: what we were promised

How does the original Covid rollout compare with what we are experiencing right now and what we are likely to end up with? In Part 1 we look at what we were promised. In Part 2 we examine how the rollout collapsed. In Part 3 we find that at mid-year, significant changes to our rollout strategies are inevitable. In Part 4 we show that a successful Pfizer rollout completed by December is possible if the federal government is up to it.

Classic 100: The music you cant live without on the ABC, which we can't live without.

Detractors of the ABC might not appreciate how important it is to them personally. Apart from the obvious news and current affairs, a constant major pleasure for us comes from ABC Classic FM. At the moment they are conducting their 2021 Classic 100 countdown. Voting is underway until Monday 7 June. The countdown itself will be broadcast throughout the weekend of June 12 and 13.

The federal governments Covid response: avoid responsibility for national quarantine

The federal governments Covid response: avoid responsibility for national quarantine

In its response to Covid, the Morrison government has achieved an almost perfect result in maintaining the Coalitions record since 2013 of doing nothing, achieving nothing, solving nothing. No big projects, no great initiatives or memorable policies. Failure to tackle key issues such as fire, climate change and Covid.

The data show no hint of racism in the India flight ban, though the backlash might be a game changer!

There is no statistical justification for a claim that the India flight ban had a racist basis. Instead, it is clear the commonwealth government was reacting to a huge spike in infected arrivals, placing the quarantine system under pressure. But the backlash from the India ban might jolt the government into accepting their responsibility for quarantine. Various commentators have raised concerns here and here and in mainstream media that the ban may have had a racist basis because Australia did not ban flights from the US and the UK when their Covid pandemic problems were at their peak, but...

I'll have what Scott's having, thanks!

It is important that all Australians be vaccinated against Covid-19, but they deserve to be able to choose the vaccine that best suits them. As the federal governments rollout plan implodes, the good news is that it now seems likely that all Australians who want it will be able to have the higher efficacy Pfizer vaccine which the PM received last month.

Vaccine rollout: the value or otherwise of a 'vaccination certificate'. Part 3

Those who are vaccinated can still become infectious. Therefore proof of vaccination might not be sufficient for international travel as it does not guarantee a person is infection free. A vaccination certificate can be wrongly used as a proxy for not infectious.

Herd immunity? Not with AstraZeneca in the frame. Part 2

Because the failed immunity rate for the AstraZeneca vaccine is more than seven times that of the Pfizer vaccine, if the Australian rollout takes place as planned, about 5.5 million people (22% of the population) could still be at risk of getting ill, while some of the remaining 20 million could still become infectious but be asymptomatic.

Rethinking Australias Covid vaccine rollout: beware a two-tier system. Part 1

If our rollout proceeds, using two different vaccines, we might create a society of suspicion and division: vaccinated v non-vaccinated, Pfizer v AstraZeneca. Most other countries need to mass vaccinate now but Australia doesnt. We should forget AstraZeneca and wait for higher efficacy vaccines to avoid havinglower overall immunity than those other countries.

Without our dithering PM, Australia would be on top of Covid-19 leaderboard

Despite Scott Morrison's failure on quarantine and aged care, we are still near top spot on responding to the pandemic. While the states have responded well in carrying the burden, imagine how many older people would still be with us if the PM had taken charge as required.

Is it time to put our PM and his Treasurer into quarantine?

At some stage many of us reach the point when we conclude that our leaders are not just useless and meddling, but downright dangerous. The Coalitions monumental bungling of the quarantining of infected Covid-19 arrivals is a continuation of their previous years of ineptness. They have endangered our lives, our economy, our health and well-being and astonishingly - our countrys federation.

There were shocking Covid-19 infection rates in USA arrivals in March why were flights not shut down?

In early March this year, our experts should have gone in search of hard data. They would quickly have determined that the infection rate in USA arrivals was in dire contrast to the published USA rates.

Opening up Australia to international travel All froth and no bubble!

Since April, a variety of coronavirus travel bubbles involving Australia have been mooted. But will any of them take off?

The Victorian lockdown is not just about health and lives!

Recently we have had Peter Singer, WHO envoys and Chris Uhlmann seemingly critical of the Covid-19 lockdown in Victoria. However, have they failed to recognise the significance of Victoria not being a country but one of eight states and territories?

Zero-case status is the best COVID-19 option for Australia And that means stronger controls over international arrivals (Part 2 of 2)

To achieve and continue with zero-case status we need to minimise the risk there will be a major breach in our current systems for quarantining international arrivals.

Zero-case status is the best Covid-19 option for Australia and that means stronger controls over international arrivals (Part 1 of 2)

Australia is the victim of its own success the jurisdictions that have succeeded will not give up their gains. Thus, Victoria and New South Wales - and Queensland - have to achieve zero-case status too, otherwise we will have a fractured nation and lives that are too far away from normal.

We can have our GST cake and eat it too! (part 2 of 2)

An extreme GST model of 15% tax on 100% of goods and services has been mooted for Australia. Can changing the marginal rates in the top tax brackets achieve the same net revenue result as any change to the GST?

We can have our GST cake. And eat it too! (part 1 of 2)

As the Australian government foreshadows imminent tax changes, some politicians, commentators and think-tanks are again proposing increasing and broadening the GST. However, the practicalities of compensating those who cant afford the price increases might rule out even minor change.

The white elephant in the room: Australia is ideal for planes, not trains!

How can Australia spend $130 billion that would best benefit the country? A response, but not an answer, is not to spend it on an HSR (high-speed rail) system on the east coast.

Beethoven and the ABC Classic 100 Countdown - A not-to-be missed event

On the weekend of the 7 and 8 June, ABC Classic will be conducting its Classic 100 Countdown for 2020. Being the 250th anniversary of his birth, it is devoted to the music of Ludwig van Beethoven.

ROBIN BOYLE. Flights From The USA Should Have Been Shut Down Earlier

Australia should have restricted arrivals from the USA on the 11 March, in the same way as it did for Italy. Failure to do so has caused extra immeasurable cost and trauma to the Australian economy and people.

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