Indonesia, Australia’s largest neighbour, will go to the polls on 14 February 2024 to elect a new President. Some 160 million eligible voters are expected to turn out in the largest single-day contest.
Under Indonesian law, the candidates must secure more than fifty per cent of the votes to avoid a run-off, scheduled on 26 June.
The front runners Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Widodo are trying hard to settle the score in their favour on the ballot day.
A run-off is more likely.
Many believe a run-off will favour the former Governor of Jakarta. Anies Baswedan is popular with the younger voters who make up a big chunk of those voting. Anies has also been gaining ground lately where he performed well in the Presidential debates carried live throughout the entire archipelago.
The fallouts from the atrocities in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen may favour Anies. Likewise, the decision of the International Court of Justice to sanction Israel for its genocidal policies in Gaza is likely to turn the fence sitters into Anies’ voters.
Besides, Ganjar Pronowo, another contender for the Presidency, currently running low in popularity despite endorsement from matriarch Megawati Sukarnoputri, leader of the PDI-Party, may throw a spanner in the Presidential elections that can tip the balance.
Ganjar and Anies may settle for an election pact in the run-off to deny Prabowo and Gibran their political ambition.
The issues are mainly domestic. Ideology does not matter much as all candidates subscribe to Pancasila. Race, culture, corruption, and identity politics will continue to feature alongside religion, climate change and economic issues, among others.
Voters who worry about inflation, aging infrastructure, jobs, income disparity, crimes, and traffic congestions want assurances from the prospective Presidential team.
Unlike Prabowo, Gibran and President Jokowi, other voters are not concerned with reports that Jakarta is sinking. However, President Jokowi’s project of building a new capital at Nusantara, estimated to cost more than US $40 billion, is mired in controversy that may benefit Anies and Ganjar who criticised the project as a wasted legacy.
Geopolitical issues are not critical in the coming Presidential election. While security issues concerning China’s expansionist claims in the South China Sea and the impact of US-China rivalry on Indonesia’s have been raised during the Presidential debates, they are not likely to be translated into votes outside Jakarta.
The elected President is likely to strengthen relations with China, US, Japan, and the immediate neighbours like Australia and the member states of Asean. Indonesia will maintain its membership in G 20 and other multilateral institutional organisations as it pushes for membership of BRICS.
Shaping the Indonesian presidential election is a complex interplay of diverse forces that collectively determine its outcome. However, in this election, the old guards and other traditional power brokers are not likely to assert excessive influence.
The role of the media, technology, and external factors, on the other hand, cannot be overlooked as they play pivotal roles in shaping public opinions.
Besides the media and technology, one game changer that can throw the analysis into haywire is the role of the incumbent President (he leaves in October). Many expect him to help his son who is on Prabowo’s ticket to clinch the Presidential deal.
BA Hamzah
Hamzah BA writes regularly under on geopolitics, Asean and maritime security and law.
Professor, National Defence University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur
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