The Wagner coup equation doesnt compute. It just doesnt add up.Herbert Wulfgave us a concise summary of the surreal 24 hours that gripped the world. But there are missing pieces of the puzzle that we havent been given.And now we learn that theWagner boss is back in St Petersburg, Russia.

In his classicThe Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote:

All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.

Chen Weihua is a contemporary China commentator based in Brussels as chief of the Europe Bureau of_China Daily_. In anarticlein that paper on 16 June, he made some claims that will startle most Western readers. Noting that just ten days after the Ukraine war began in February last year, the EU banned Russia Today and Sputnik News, he wrote that since then the 450mn people living in the EU have had the information they receive restricted to covering the war largely from Ukraines perspective. This is the side that the EU backs. And this had been done in the name of checking disinformation and information manipulation by Russia. Thus, while speculations on Russias casualty toll are rife, there is almost complete silence on Ukrainian casualties.

EU officials have also maintained similar total silence on the culprit responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite its critical importance to the EUs energy security.Chen Weihua writesthat the nearly identical views of supposedly independent commentators at European think tank events and news channels

is a reflection of the extremely sad political correctness in the EU, or a manipulation of information and spreading of disinformation.

On the other hand, Chinese news media outlets have been doing a better job in presenting both sides of the story. This is largely due to the fact that China does not believe in taking sides and instead has maintained good relations with both Russia and Ukraine.

And he rightly points out that while some EU officials see such balanced coverage as jeopardising their efforts to manipulate information or spread disinformation, Chinas views in fact are closer to many others from the Global South.

Now consider the dominant narrative in the legacy Western media, and by that I dont mean just the US media. How could Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group of mercenaries, stage an armed mutiny that threatened to reach Moscow at lightning speed without meeting much resistance from the Russian military? How can President Vladimir Putin survive the crippling blow to his authority that rests on his ability to provide stability and guarantee security?

An analysis on 25 June by Anton Trolanovski in the_New York Times_, the one-time paper of record, argued: Revolt Raises Searing Question:Could Putin Lose Power? Writing in the_Washington Post_on 24 June, senior columnist David Ignatius concluded: Putin looked into the abyss Saturday and blinked. The theme was reprised endlessly in the British and European print and electronic media outlets as well. For example, retiredColonel Richard Kempwrote in the UK_Telegraph_(25 June) that the abortive coup detat has exposed Putins weakness and vulnerability.

Yet, all three elements of this narrative the march on Moscow in a dramatic anti-Putin coup, the question mark over the Russian militarys ability and loyalty to the regime, and Putins major defeat are suspect. Lets work backwards from the known outcomes.

Tellingly,Putin never took a call from Prigozhin. He stared him down and won.

Brazilian geopolitical analystPepe Escobar, a familiar and respected columnist from the global South, points out that by the time the coup fizzled out, Putin had locked in the support of the military, the intelligence and security agencies, and the citizens. So much so that Escobar speculates that the coup (his inverted commas and title caps) could turn out to be the Greatest Russian Trolling of the West Ever and the Mother of All Maskirovkas (military deception).

A force of just 25,000 mercenaries taking on the full might of the Russian army seriously?Rebekah Koffler, a former US defence intelligence analyst, also writes in_Newsweek_(29 June) that the so-called coup was staged by Putin: a false flag operation to flush out Prigozhin and strengthen his own position. The West fell for it. Escobar concludes that Russia has emerged stronger and Putin is stronger than ever. We also know that he never forgets and never forgives, so Prigozhin would be well advised to stay away from windows in upper storeys and from men with umbrellas.

Escobars analysis is consistent with that of a knowledgeable source in the American intelligence community speaking toSeymour Hersh. He too points out that the revolt fizzled out within a day, Prigozhin has fled into exile in Belarus, his forces have been mostly blended into the Russian army (or they can choose to join their former boss in exile in Belarus), there was no march on Moscow nor a threat to Putins life, and Putin in fact is now in a much stronger position. But the coup that died in a day was helpful in distracting attention from the failure of the much-heralded Ukraine summer counter-offensive to make serious headway against the fortified Russian defensive positions in eastern Ukraine.

Just to be clear, I am not endorsing the counter-narrative on the so-called coup. I merely wish to note that there is a counter-narrative and that it is plausible. Discerning the truth through the fog of war is well-nigh impossible for independent observers. All we can and should do is keep an open mind and read a range of analyses. In that sense and to that extent, Chen Weihua is right in criticising the narrow opinion corridor permitted in the Wests mainstream media.

This has one further consequence for Western allies in the Pacific. Ahead of Prime Minister (PM) Fumio Kishidas attendance at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania next week, Japan has concluded a new partnership agreement with NATO and the latter will be opening anoffice in Tokyo. South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are also entering into the so-called global partners group with individually crafted arrangements with NATO, or supplementary pacts likeAUKUSthat provide a hinge to NATO.

The assumptions behind the rush by the Asia-Pacific Four (Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea) to be willing accomplices to theglobalisation of NATO to protect US primacy and contain China, as Joseph Camilleri puts it, surely need to be debated and contested. Is this the best way to ensure the continued peace of the Indo-Pacific? Todissuade the US from going to war over Taiwan, andAustralia from committing to that war effortin advance?

The sobering reality is that although the West hopes that the setbacks to Russias plans for a decisive victory over Ukraine will deter China from attacking Taiwan to capture it by force, Beijing may conclude to the contrary that it canlearn from Russias tactical mistakes and benefit from the Wests military exhaustionin aiding Ukraine with massive military supplies. Western leaders are in denial that the more they arm Ukraine, the more they incentivise China to assist Russia in avoiding defeat to make sure the West continues to confront adversaries on two major fronts. As war aims continue to evolve for the direct conflict parties and their proxy allies, it would be more prudent to concentrate attention and diplomatic efforts on containing and ending the war in Europe rather than aiding and abetting its export to the Pacific.

First published by the Toda Peace Institute July 7, 2023