Writer
Michael Keating
Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.
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What is the risk of a housing price bubble?
Home ownership is a cornerstone of the Australian way of life. But it is becoming less affordable. This article discusses the risks of a housing price bubble and what can be done…. Continue reading »
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UK conservatives are willing to tax the rich to repair their budget, Morrison will only take from the needy
Conservative politicians in both Australia and the UK profess to believe in small government. However, UK conservatives are prepared to increase tax to fund essential government services while in Australia, our conservatives try to achieve small government by stealth by not properly funding key government responsibilities…. Continue reading »
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The Reserve Bank’s target for wage growth is difficult whilst the Government resists wage increases
The Reserve Bank has tied the future of monetary policy to the restoration of wage growth. But how likely is that, and what are the consequences?… Continue reading »
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How good is Scott Morrison? Or is it all marketing?
After a bad beginning with the bush fires, Scott Morrison has understandably claimed credit for Australia’s relatively strong performance in mitigating the health and economic consequences of the Covid pandemic in 2020. But looking to the future, how much substance is there, or is he just Scotty from marketing. So long as Morrison remains determined… Continue reading »
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In our hands: Will we ‘Reset’ or return to the Dog Days?
As we emerge from the Covid recession, Ross Garnaut argues that Australia is facing a critical choice: change for the good or return to the “Dog Days” that preceded the recession. Garnaut’s book ‘Reset’ makes a major contribution to how that can and should happen…. Continue reading »
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Let’s talk tax: It’s vital if Labor genuinely wants a fairer, more equal society Part 2
Part 1 discussed the policy platform that Labor needs to seize leading up to the election. However, such a platform will lack credibility unless all its policies are fully costed, and it is clear how they will be paid for…. Continue reading »
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Liberal and Liberal-lite: a Hobson’s choice for voters at next election? Part 1
Will Labor offer voters a real choice? Labor should grasp the nettle and focus on the key challenges facing Australia – climate change and inequality. Tomorrow, I will discuss the budget consequences of this policy agenda, as this is essential to Labor’s credibility…. Continue reading »
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Upturn: all too familiar ideas but an advance on Coalition’s limited offerings
An eclectic set of essays, the book Upturn: A better normal after Covid-19 tries to put forward a serious reform agenda. While there is a wealth of enthusiastic ideas, Upturn is unfortunately stronger on identifying problems than solutions. This post concentrates on the chapters discussing economic and social welfare. Reviews of other chapters will be posted… Continue reading »
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Fundamental purpose of superannuation is to provide adequate retirement incomes, not finance bequests
The priority for retirement incomes policy is to ensure that retirement savings are used efficiently to generate an adequate income. Until this occurs, there should be no change in the legislated increases in the compulsory superannuation guarantee contribution rate…. Continue reading »
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Despite appearances, this government isn’t really Keynesian, as its budget update shows
It is tempting to think the Australian government’s decision to spend big – an unprecedented 33% of GDP this financial year according to the budget update – marks an embrace of Keynesian economics after decades in which authorities have looked the other way…. Continue reading »
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Why inequality increased and what to do about it
The evidence clearly shows that the rise in inequality has been principally driven by technological change. But governments can make a difference. Education and training policies to assist the adjustment to new technologies can help preserve the distribution of income and an egalitarian society…. Continue reading »
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What real reform looks like: increase wages and tackle inequality, climate change
The economy has been stagnating for years under successive Coalition governments. It badly needs fixing, but it can be done. This is how…. Continue reading »
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Don’t scare the horses: Morrison’s business-friendly reforms change little
While the Prime Minister has acknowledged Australia needs to reconsider its policy framework to restore full employment, the areas identified for reform are poorly chosen, and little of substance is likely to emerge. An alternative will be discussed tomorrow…. Continue reading »
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The medium-term budget outlook and its policy implications. Part 2
Yesterday Part 1 considered the medium-term outlook for the budget deficit and government debt. Today Part 2 discusses the Parliamentary Budget Office projections of revenue and expenditures, how realistic they are, and why policies will need to change if we are to return to sustained economic growth and fiscal strength…. Continue reading »
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The medium-term budget outlook and its policy implications. Part 1
Instead of being “back in the black” this financial year, the budget outlook is for deficits continuing for the foreseeable future. The critical issue for policy is how should the budget deficit be wound back, how far and how quickly…. Continue reading »
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From here on our recovery will need more than fiscal policy, it’ll need redistribution
From the 1980s right through to the global financial crisis, the standard response in Australia and elsewhere to too weak or too strong an economy has been monetary policy — the manipulation of interest rates by a central bank, in our case the Reserve Bank…. Continue reading »
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Can macroeconomic policy ensure the inflation target?
If Australian wages do not increase sufficiently in line with economic capacity, it risks a shortfall in aggregate demand that will make the achievement of an inflation target very difficult, or even impossible…. Continue reading »
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How can we best ensure that retirement incomes are adequate?
The present superannuation contribution (SG) rate of 9.5 percent can finance an adequate retirement income for most middle-income people, provided they fully draw down their savings. Logically, therefore, any action to stop further increases in the SG rate should be contingent on accompanying policies to remove the present impediments to using retirement savings efficiently…. Continue reading »
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Morrison’s faulty logic in opposing a net zero carbon emissions target.
Contrary to Scott Morrison’s contention, we can usefully set a target date to achieve net zero carbon emissions without exact knowledge of the cost and how the target will be delivered…. Continue reading »
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Interest rates: why a further cut is not a good idea
Interest rates are already at record lows. Any further cut will not help the economy but will add to the inequality of wealth in this country…. Continue reading »
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Why Labor should scrap the Stage 3 tax cuts
The Government’s stage 3 tax cuts due to come into operation in 2024-25 should be scrapped. They are too costly and too biased in favour of the highest incomes. Instead, there are other better ways to support economic growth using the money, such as Labor’s recently announced policy of increased subsidies for childcare…. Continue reading »
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How does the 2020-21 Budget stack up?
The budget deserves a “pass”, but the government is favouring tax cuts which may not all be spent. Also much of the assistance appears to be poorly targeted to the areas which have most suffered a loss of jobs…. Continue reading »
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Scotty from marketing: A fact check
Trump is notorious for his lies, but it is time that a fact check was applied to Scotty from Marketing, too. Without it I doubt we can elevate the political debate from its present populism…. Continue reading »
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Deregulation or better regulation?
Too often the public debate is around whether there should be less regulation, but typically regulation exists for a reason, and the issue should be how to regulate more effectively…. Continue reading »
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The Budget – possible additional measures
Yesterday I considered the economic outlook and concluded that on present policies the pace of the recovery post-Covid is likely to be too slow. Today’s article discusses what extra stimulus should be incorporated in the Budget in two weeks, and what form that stimulus should take…. Continue reading »
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The economic outlook and the Budget
In two weeks the Government will bring down its delayed 2020 Budget. This article discusses the economic outlook and concludes that further stimulus measures will be necessary in the forthcoming Budget. The desirable size of that additional fiscal stimulus and the possible new measures to accelerate economic recovery will then be discussed in a subsequent… Continue reading »
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Infrastructure Stimulus: there are smart projects out there, if we care to look
Infrastructure spending is touted as the path to economic recovery, but our leaders can no longer afford to throw billions at programs with little economic merit or policy logic…. Continue reading »
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Superannuation: how much do we need to save?
A hot political issue is whether to proceed with the legislated increase in superannuation contributions from 9.5 to 10 per cent next July. There are pros and cons but if the superannuation increase is further postponed, there should be an offsetting increase in the minimum wage…. Continue reading »
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The economic outlook and taxation. Part 2
Yesterday Part 1 of this article argued that bringing forward the second and third stages of the Government’s legislated tax cuts would achieve very little economic stimulus and would damage the longer-term fiscal position. Part 2 today considers the future demands for government spending, and therefore how much revenue will be necessary after economic recovery…. Continue reading »
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The economic outlook and taxation Part 1
The Covid-induced recession has turned out to be worse than we initially hoped writes Michael Keating. Part 1 of this article discusses the additional fiscal stimulus that will be necessary and why it should not include bringing forward the Government’s legislated tax cuts. Part 2, tomorrow, will discuss the key requirements for revenue raising…. Continue reading »
