Writer
Jon Stanford
In a former life, Jon Stanford was a Division Head in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Currently, as a Director of Insight Economics, he is undertaking significant research on Australia’s future submarine project, generously supported by Gary Johnston, owner of the Submarines for Australia website.
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The smart money is that in defending Australia we will be on our own. Part 3
The government’s recent Defence Strategic Update suggests Australia faces the greatest threat to our independence since 1942. In this final article of three, I consider the need for a Review, both to design a new Australian military strategy and analyse the essential elements of the new force structure that this will require. … Continue reading »
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Part 2. Australia’s Defence Strategy: built-in resistance to change
The government’s Defence Strategic Update suggests Australia faces the greatest threat to our independence since 1942. This demands a sophisticated diplomatic strategy, the development of a sound military strategy and the careful analysis of how to deliver an appropriate force structure so as to address the threat in an acceptable timeframe…. Continue reading »
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Sharp-edged but sophisticated diplomacy needs to underpin our defence strategy Part 1
The government’s recent Defence Strategic Update suggests Australia faces the greatest threat to our independence since 1942. This demands a sophisticated diplomatic strategy, the development of a sound military strategy to deter an attack by a great power and careful analysis of how to design the right force structure to deliver it. This first article… Continue reading »
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What should Australian submarines do? – Response to Brian Toohey
Brian Toohey’s challenging post (19 October) concerns what we want our submarines to do. In light of the recent Defence Strategic Update, the ADF needs to build a force capable of deterring an attack by a major power…. Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. A Response to Michael McKinley on Future Submarines
In a series of five pieces in Pearls and Irritations last week, Dr Michael McKinley cites the recent report by Submarines for Australia at some length. While I acknowledge some of Dr McKinley’s concerns about our approach, it is not clear to me what he is proposing in its place. But insofar as I understand… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD: Second rate leadership: Future Submarine Part 4 of 4
I have suggested that recent governments have failed to provide leadership in the defence portfolio. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of SEA 1000, the future submarine program…. Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD: Second rate leadership: Future Submarine Part 3 of 4
I have suggested in earlier posts that recent governments have failed to provide leadership in the defence portfolio. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of SEA 1000, the future submarine program…. Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD: Second rate leadership Part 2 of 4: Defence
“Australia is now a confident, wealthy nation that has the right to expect its leaders to rise above the second rate.”… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD.- Second rate leadership. Part 1 of 4
Australia is now a confident, wealthy nation that has the right to expect its leaders to rise above the second rate…. Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Comment on Mike Scrapton’s article ‘The casual talk of war’.
Isn’t it interesting that in the Prime Minister’s attempt yesterday to make us all very frightened indeed about the national security threats that a Labor government would expose us to — ranging from hordes of asylum seekers at the gates, including paedophiles and murderers in their ranks, to increased domestic violence against women — he… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. The Future Submarine: Time for a Review
One year ago, Insight Economics, sponsored by Sydney businessman Gary Johnston, published a comprehensive, independent report on the future submarine (FSM) acquisition. Launched at the National Press Club by Professor Hugh White and Dr Michael Keating, the report highlighted the excessive cost of the FSM; its unacceptable delivery timetable leading to a dangerous capability gap;… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Australia’s Future Submarine. Part 3 of 3. Responding to the criticisms
At the National Press Club in Canberra on 27 September 2017, Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the ANU, launched an independent report by Insight Economics on Australia’s future submarine (FSM). The report, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, was commissioned by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman and owner of the website,… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Australia’s Future Submarine; Part 2 of 3 : Addressing the problems in a second-best world
At the National Press Club in Canberra on 27 September 2017, Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the ANU, launched an independent report by Insight Economics on Australia’s future submarine (FSM). The report, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, was commissioned by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman and owner of the website,… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Australia’s Future Submarines: A response to Christopher Pyne
Last week at the National Press Club, Hugh White launched a report by Insight Economics, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, of which I was the principal author. The report was sponsored by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman with no commercial interest in the SEA 1000 Future Submarine (FSM) program but an abiding… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Australia’s Future Submarine – Part 1: The problems
At the National Press Club in Canberra on 27 September 2017, Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the ANU, launched an independent report by Insight Economics on Australia’s future submarine (FSM). The report, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, was commissioned by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman and owner of the website,… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Brexit and some lessons from the British election.
Despite recent disruptions in the comfortable world of electoral punditry – Brexit, Trump, even Macron – when Theresa May called a British general election in April, the only question was how many additional seats the Conservatives would win. … Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Australia’s climate change policy mess: quo vadis?
Make no mistake: Malcolm Turnbull’s pusillanimous refusal even to consider the option of an emissions intensity scheme (EIS) for electricity generation represents a massive abdication of responsibility to the Australian community…. Continue reading »
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The French submarine boondoggle
Is DCNS’s imaginary Shortfin Barracuda submarine Australia’s biggest defence blunder? The Turnbull government’s decision on the future submarine (FSM) represents bad policy. It is bad for the Navy, bad for the taxpayer and bad for the future defence of Australia. Given the key role the FSM is meant to play in the future of the… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Business welfare under the Coalition: two case studies (2)
This is the second of two articles by Jon Stanford on the Coalition’s approach to industry protection and ‘business welfare’. Part 1 (Motor Cars) can be found at Jon Stanford. Business welfare under the Coalition: two case studies. Naval shipbuilding At the outset, we need to understand that there are no significant defence reasons for… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Business welfare under the Coalition: two case studies (1)
The Abbott government came to power with a Treasurer who announced that the “age of entitlement” was dead and that he had no time for “business welfare”. In these two articles, Jon Stanford examines how this philosophy has been applied since 2013 to two manufacturing industries, passenger motor vehicles (PMV) and naval shipbuilding…. Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD and JOHN MENADUE. The submarine confusion continues. Is the way being prepared for Australia to acquire nuclear submarines?
REPOST In an interesting development relating to Australia’s new submarine acquisition, Peter Jennings, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), has written a piece in The Australian (7 June 2016) that is clearly at odds with the Institute’s previous public stance. Jennings says that while conventional power for Australia’s submarines has previously been… Continue reading »
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JON STANFORD. Brexit – UK is unprepared.
The thrust of Michael Keating’s essay on Brexit is that the vote in favour of leaving the European Union taken by the British electorate on 23 June will be bad for the UK but will have a minimal impact on the rest of the world. If the British government accepts the advice put forward in… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. French submarines and the East and South China Seas. – why?
A response to Richard Broinowski. While the government might emphasise the roles for the new submarine that may be regarded as defensive – “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance” – Richard Broinowski ignores perhaps the most important role, namely power projection in the East and South China Seas. This role was perhaps most graphically illustrated the Rudd… Continue reading »
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John Stanford. Technology, economics and Australia’s future submarine. Part 3 of 3.
Part 3: Implications: a more efficient and less risky approach Introduction The purpose of this three-part article is not to question the government’s requirement for advanced submarine capability but rather to explore some of the technological, economic and financial issues, and the associated risks, around the programme by which the government is seeking to deliver… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. Technology, economics and Australia’s future submarine Part 2 of 3.
Part 2: Economic and financial risks Introduction The first part of this article considered the technological risks involved in the decision, as set out in the 2016 Defence White Paper, to procure twelve new submarines at an acquisition cost of at least $50 billion. The economic and financial risks of this project are discussed here… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. Technology, economics and Australia’s future submarine. Part 1 of 3
Part 1: Technology risk Introduction The most important acquisition included in the government’s Defence White Paper, released in February 2016, is the decision to procure twelve new submarines for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). With an acquisition cost of at least $50 billion (and with a much higher through life sustainment cost), this is… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Implications for Australia
Despite a generally positive reception to the Paris accord on climate change, the ideologues on both sides of the debate regard it as a failure. For the sceptics, the agreement that developing countries (which played a negligible role in causing the problem) can continue to increase emissions is so inequitable that it undermines the whole… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. Defence procurement and the new submarine
When people remember Gough Whitlam, few would identify him as an economic rationalist. Economics was not his primary interest and, partly because of the perceived urgency of implementing “the programme” after 23 years in opposition, partly because of the incompetence of some of his Ministers, the budget blew out excessively on his watch. Yet in… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. The Pathway to Two Degrees: Should we ban New Coal Mines?
Leading up to this month’s major climate change conference in Paris, there has been a welcome increase worldwide in the commitment to address climate change generally and, in particular, to restrict global warming to two degrees Celsius. Although they are still insufficient to meet the two degree target, the initial national commitments to be taken… Continue reading »
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Jon Stanford. Australia’s New Submarine: What is its Mission?
Recent papers published in Pearls and Irritations by Jon Stanford and Rear-Admiral Ian Richards have suggested respectively that: the case for providing significant financial support to the naval shipbuilding industry is flawed, both on defence policy and industry policy grounds there are unacceptable risks involved in building Australia’s proposed new fleet of submarines locally. In… Continue reading »
