What will Beijing do if Lai Ching-teh wins Taiwan’s Presidential Election?
Jan 10, 2024
Taiwan will hold its national presidential and legislative election on January 13. Vice President Lai Ching-teh, the pro independence candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, leads in the polls and will likely be the next president.
Officials in Beijing do not like Lai and have expressed their views openly. They call him a secessionist and warn Taiwan voters about him.
In fact, pundits suggest if Lai wins there is likely to be conflict and even war.
However, for a lot of reasons this may not be the case.
While Lai has spoken of himself as being a “worker for Taiwan’s independence” in the past, he has clearly changed his tune in recent months. He now speaks of peace and hope for friendly reactions with China.
Lai also says he will adopt President Tsai’s position on cross-Strait relations which is to keep the status quo. He even says he will abide by Taiwan’s Constitution, which reads that “China cannot be split.” (This sounds like he may even support unification, though he would hardly say so.)
Another fact is while Lai may win the presidency, it is likely the DPP will not keep the majority it has in the legislature. If this happens the anti-independence parties will certainly block any movement toward independence if there is one.
VP Lai also knows that President Tsai promoted hostility towards China during the mid-term election in 2022 and was blamed for the DPP’s poignant setback. He is also aware that neither independence nor unification have generally been winning issues in Taiwan politics and grasps the reality that both are provocative and Taiwan’s future in this regard will be decided by global power politics and China and the U.S. control this. (Taiwan will not have much if any say in the matter).
How might Chinese leaders see the situation?
Talk of independence is nettlesome to China; no doubt about that. But China’s top leaders do not want war. If the U.S. sides with Taiwan they likely won’t win. If they wait five or ten years, the balance of power will likely favor China.
The top leadership in China advances a policy of succeeding with unifying Taiwan using economic means and based on the integration of the two economies. Given that China is Taiwan’s biggest trading partner by a wide margin (more than most of the nations of the European Union trade with each other) this has considerable resonance.
President Tsai worried about this and espoused a “southward policy” of expanding trade with the countries of Southeast Asia to lessen dependance on China. But it didn’t work. Commerce with China has increased around 17 percent since she was elected president.
Another reality is that Taiwan’s economy faces slow growth in coming years—1 or 2 percent.
China will grow much faster making Taiwan more reliant on commerce with China.
It is also worth noting that China has been giving Taiwan an advantage in trade and can use this and other means, including diplomatic, to pressure Taiwan. Clearly it has been pulling its punches.
Finally, though ironic, Chinese leaders may consider the fact that Lai’s opponents are not likely to succeed at promoting unification (as former President Ma did not) and it would be better to see Lai make concessions in this direction than the Nationalist Party pursue it.
John F. Copper
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than thirty-five books on Taiwan and U.S. China/Taiwan policy, including the seventh edition of Taiwan: Nation-State or Province? (Routledge) just over a year ago and Taiwan’s Politics in Action (World Scientific) early in 2021.
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