Author Archives: Abul Rizvi

Abul Rizvi

About Abul Rizvi

Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries. He is currently doing a PhD on Australia's immigration policies.

Can we rely on the PM’s forecast economic boom?

Scott Morrison says Australia’s economy will have to expand by 3.75% per annum for the next five years to recover from the corona virus recession.

Posted in Economy, Refugees, Immigration | Comments Off on Can we rely on the PM’s forecast economic boom?

Population ageing in Australia and Japan

Australia and Japan are demographic polar opposites.

Posted in Economy, Refugees, Immigration | Comments Off on Population ageing in Australia and Japan

ABUL RIZVI. Forecast of Net Overseas Migration for the Decade of 2020s

The Prime Minister says the coronavirus crisis will drive net overseas migration in 2020-21 down by 85% of its level for 2018-19. But what would net overseas migration average during the decade of the 2020s under current policy settings?

Posted in Politics | 3 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Is population ageing affecting Australia’s economic performance?

A lower fertility rate and lower NOM for the foreseeable future will mean that Australia will age much more rapidly than forecast in the 2015 Intergenerational Report and in the 2019 Budget.

Posted in Economy | 7 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Global Talent Independent Visa: Permanent residence in a week or two

The new Global Talent Independent (GTI) visa provides a direct permanent residence for ‘highly skilled professionals in high growth sectors’. According to the Department of Home Affairs, processing times range between two days and two months with many being decided … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Refugees, Immigration | 5 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Australia’s struggles with skilled temporary migration

Kristina Keneally argues that when we come out of the current crisis we should aim for a lower level of temporary migration to make sure “Australians get a fair go and a first go at jobs.” Scott Morrison says cutting … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Public Policy, Refugees, Immigration | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Morrison and Dutton wash their hands of the plight of overseas students?

Australia’s international education industry has boomed for 20 years. Will Morrison and Dutton continue to wash their hands of overseas students? Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 5 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Coronavirus and Australia’s Population and Economic Directions

The coronavirus crisis brings to an end 20 years of high migration to Australia. On current policy settings, net migration in 2020 and 2021 will be close to zero, if not negative. Australia is looking at the biggest turning point … Continue reading

Posted in Economy | 17 Comments

ABUL RIZVI.Who are the missing 473,000 temporary entrants?

Minister Tudge says there were 2.17 Million temporary entrants in Australia in early April 2020. He explains that 1.697 million of these are NZ citizens, students, tourists, working holiday makers and skilled temporary entrants. But who are the remaining 473,000?

Posted in Politics | 1 Comment

ABUL RIZVI. The plight of temporary entrants

For Sujith, Priyanga and their two children, winter is coming as it is for so many temporary residents.

Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. We need to keep migrants in Australia during coronavirus recession

If the government does not act to stop the coronavirus recession from forcing migrants out, then Australia will be far more economically vulnerable. Because Australia is a migrant settler nation, recessions here have special characteristics.

Posted in Economy | 14 Comments

ABUL RIZVI.- Job-keeper allowance a gun to the heads of over 1 million temporary entrants

The job keeper allowance is a massive tourniquet for the Australian economy and society. But for over 1 million temporary entrants, the allowance is a gun to their head.

Posted in Politics | 7 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: The Ruby Princess – how could this have happened?

The Ruby Princess, along with a number of other cruise ships that arrived in Australia around the same time, will go down in Australian history as a super spreader of disease and death.

Posted in Politics | 14 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Possible population projections in the forthcoming 2020 Intergenerational Report

Treasurer Frydenberg will shortly publish the 2020 Intergenerational Report (IGR) –Australia’s fifth such document. It’s as close as we get to a long-term plan (usually 40 years) for the Australian population and economy.

Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Why the Kiwis are not coming to OZ any more

For much of the last 30 years, New Zealand has been one of Australia’s top source countries for migrants. But since 2013-14 Australia seems to have lost its attraction to Kiwis.

Posted in Politics | 3 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Morrison impotent on visa arrangements for Indonesians

The Australian of 10 February 2019 reports the Morrison government is “considering” Mr Joko’s proposal for Australia to relax visa restrictions for Indonesian visitors in line with the “visa on arrival” arrangements for Australians visiting Indonesia.

Posted in Refugees, Immigration | 1 Comment

ABUL RIZVI. Dutton’s Trifecta of Border Protection Failures

For years now Peter Dutton has boasted of his border protection achievements. But a brief examination of the details of his boast shows that while he has excelled in gratuitous cruelty, dog-whistling and wasting taxpayer’s money, his actual border protection … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Does Australia have a temporary migration problem?

On 5 December 2019, the Senate established a Select Committee on Temporary Migration to “inquire into the impact temporary migration has on the Australian economy, wages and jobs, social cohesion and workplace rights and conditions”.

Posted in Politics | 2 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. The Australian again falls for Government spin on the record number of asylum seekers arriving by air.

In a front page exclusive on 28 January, Geoff Chambers and Joe Kelly of The Australian uncritically regurgitate the Government’s talking points on asylum seekers arriving by plane. Either they are just innocents with no idea how to do the … Continue reading

Posted in Refugees, Immigration | 2 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Why 5% unemployment today is not the same as 5% unemployment 10-20 years ago

The unemployment rate, and even the underemployment rate, have become an inadequate measure of the true health of our labour market.

Posted in Economy, Refugees, Immigration | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. No end in sight to growth in Dutton’s backlogs-the asylum seekers who came by air.

End December 2019 data shows the backlog of asylum applications at the primary stage, at the AAT and those who have been finally refused and have become overstayers continues to grow.

Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Forecasts of Net Overseas Migration – Why they matter

It does not matter much if Treasury forecasts of net overseas migration (NOM) from one year to the next are out by 30,000 or 40,000 as is likely for the 2019 Budget forecast for 2020. This happens regularly. But it … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 2 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Is Dutton Undermining Birmingham’s Tourism Campaign?

Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham has announced an additional $25 million to market Australia to international tourists in response to the impact of the bushfire crisis. He says this is necessary to ‘save Aussie jobs’. But his counterpart Peter Dutton has … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 10 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Dutton and Pezzullo’s Asylum Seeker Bungle – November Update

David Crowe in the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Dutton’s Department received an average of 77 asylum applications per day in November 2019. That brings the total number of asylum applications in the last five and a half years to … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Re-emergence of Dodgy VET Colleges

Since January 2018, the Australian Skills Quality Agency (ASQA) has cancelled the registration of around 450 private VET colleges. This is after years of such cancellations being relatively rare. A spokesperson for ASQA has said this reflects an improved “ability … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Education, Refugees, Immigration | 3 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Dysfunction in Home Affairs officially confirmed

The dysfunction in the Home Affairs Department that has been long reported on (see here, here, and here) has now been officially confirmed in a survey conducted by the Australian Public Service Commission.

Posted in Refugees, Immigration | 3 Comments

ABUL RIZVI. Highlights of 2018-19 Migration Program Outcome

Minister Coleman has at last allowed the 2018-19 Migration Program report to be published in early December. These are usually finalised each July. Two highlights: (1) the Partner visa application pipeline has reached almost 90,000 and is certain to grow … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 1 Comment

ABUL RIZVI. A Cruel Government Setting Regional Migrants Up for Exploitation and Failure

On 16 November 2019, the Government’s much touted new regional migration visas took effect. One of these is a five year provisional visa that requires the migrant to be nominated by a state/territory government. To secure permanent residence, the provisional … Continue reading

Posted in Refugees, Immigration | 3 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Asylum Applications from China and Malaysia

Government has argued the surge in asylum applications from Chinese and Malaysian citizens is just part of normal growth in the caseload (see here). Nothing could be further from the truth. The surge is entirely the result of poor policy … Continue reading

Posted in Refugees, Immigration, World Affairs | 2 Comments

ABUL RIZVI: Frydenberg’s Population Ageing Backflip

After studiously ignoring population ageing in his ten year budget plan issued before the 2019 Election, Josh Frydenberg now says population ageing will be an economic and fiscal timebomb. So which of the two Frydenberg narratives are we to believe? … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 5 Comments