Writer
Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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The future of Australia’s overseas student program
At over 40 percent of net migration, Australia’s overseas student program was growing unsustainably before the pandemic. The border closures hid many of the problems and led the Coalition Government to make policy changes that made the situation much worse when borders re-opened (unrestricted work rights, fee-free visa applications, covid visa). Continue reading »
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What happened to net migration in January 2024
With the Opposition Spokesperson for Immigration, Dan Tehan, making it clear immigration levels will be a key battleground for the 2025 Election, the Government will be keen to see net migration trending down faster. While net migration past its peak in around September 2023, it is still not falling sharply. That is despite major tightening Continue reading »
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Is Dan Tehan confused about immigration levels?
In an interview on the Insiders program, Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan was asked what Australia’s immigration intake should be. He said that 1.6 million over the next four years, implying that is the Albanese Government’s plan, was too high. But is that really the Albanese Government’s plan? Continue reading »
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Dutton oversaw largest rise in asylum applications in history. They came by air
The arrival last week of a boat carrying 24 potential asylum seekers, and possibly another one carrying 13, sent Peter Dutton into his standard boat arrivals scare mode. The usual suspects at the Murdoch press went into a frenzy of panic with Chris Kenny calling it a ‘national dilemma’. Continue reading »
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Permanent and long-term movements continue at high levels
While it is highly likely net migration is now past its peak and declining, the data to this stage suggests it may only be falling gradually. Continue reading »
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What’s happening with covid visa holders?
The covid visa stream of sub-class 408 was introduced during the pandemic when international borders were closed. It enabled temporary entrants who were unable to leave Australia to maintain their lawful status and keep working. They could apply for a 12 month covid stream visa and then apply for another one if they wished. Continue reading »
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Restricting onshore student visa hopping – harder than it looks
Onshore student visa policy gets relatively little attention as it deals with people who are already in Australia, but it is critical to how the overseas student program operates. Continue reading »
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Time running out for Albanese Government to fix asylum system
Despite its $160 million package to better manage asylum seekers, time is running out for the Albanese Government to get on top of the asylum seeker issue prior to the 2025 election. Continue reading »
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If immigration must stay in Home Affairs, here’s how to fix the agency
The founding secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, Mike Pezzullo, was dismissed late last year for egregiously breaching the public service code of conduct. The man who lectured public servants they should live by that code, broke it in a manner no previous secretary in living memory had done. Continue reading »
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Different views of Australia’s population from agencies in the same portfolio
Three days before Christmas, Treasury’s Centre for Population has without much fanfare issued its 2023 Population Statement. Continue reading »
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Is Albanese on track to deliver proposed net migration reductions?
After letting net migration blow out to around 518,000 in 2022-23, the Albanese Government has announced it wants to bring net migration down to 375,000 in 23-24 and 250,000 in 24-25 Continue reading »
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Dutton’s border protection rhetoric is nothing like his border protection record
Peter Dutton’s border protection rhetoric has contributed to a remarkable improvement in the Coalition’s public polling. He will ride that rhetoric to the next Election. Continue reading »
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Hysteria: Putting the 12 asylum seeker boat arrivals into context
While there is much hysteria from Peter Dutton and the Murdoch press associated with the 12 asylum seekers who recently arrived by boat (it’s a catastrophe apparently), there was less excitement about a new post-pandemic monthly record for primary asylum applications set in October at 2,322. That is now approaching the monthly record of over Continue reading »
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Have primary asylum applications peaked?
Primary level asylum applications fell marginally in September 2023 to 2,005 from a post-pandemic peak of 2,164 in August 2023. With the Government having announced a $160 million package to get the asylum system back under some control, can we now expect primary level asylum applications to have peaked? Continue reading »
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Net migration of 500,000 guarantees an ugly immigration election
The October 2023 arrivals and departures data, to be published next week, is highly likely to confirm that net migration for the 12 months to September 2023 will be around 500,000. That is both unprecedented and unplanned. It will lock in an ugly immigration focussed 2025 Federal Election as net migration will fall only slowly Continue reading »
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Record asylum caseload at Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)
With announcement of a strategy to address Australia’s burgeoning asylum backlogs, it is worth looking at the asylum caseload at the AAT. Addressing the backlog at the appeals stage is often critical to getting the asylum system working, as it should to help genuine refugees while deterring the unmeritorious. Continue reading »
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Albanese government addresses coalition-era asylum seekers surge
After around eight years of policy paralysis and the biggest labour trafficking scam abusing the asylum system in our history, a scam that was largely neglected by Home Affairs Minister Dutton and his Secretary Mike Pezzullo, the Albanese Government has announced a $160 million package to “restore integrity to Australia’s refugee protection system”. Continue reading »
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Pezzullo departure should end the Home Affairs experiment
Creation of the Department of Home Affairs was a disaster for Australia’s immigration policy and administration. The impending departure of its architect, Secretary Mike Pezzullo, enables the Albanese Government to bring that experiment to an end. Continue reading »
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What the forthcoming migration strategy won’t address
The Government has foreshadowed that it will soon release its new migration strategy. Most of what has been leaked to date is sensible fine tuning of employer sponsored visas which will have little impact on net migration levels. But I fear the migration strategy will be largely silent on the big issue of net migration Continue reading »
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Asylum seekers from Pacific Island Nations
In August 2023, there was another sharp increase in asylum applications from Pacific Island nationals (including Timor-Leste) to over 390. That is more asylum applications in August than from Chinese nationals (215) and Indian nationals (214) despite there being far more Chinese and Indian temporary entrants in Australia. Continue reading »
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Will number of temporary entrants in Australia continue to rise?
At end July 2023, there was an all-time record 2.554 million temporary entrants in Australia. The crucial policy question is whether that will be a peak or whether the number of temporary entrants in Australia will keep rising? If the latter, what will that mean for the number of temporary entrants in ‘immigration limbo’ – Continue reading »
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How I decided to vote in the upcoming Voice referendum
With the date of the Voice referendum now having been set for 14 October, all households will have received a pamphlet outlining the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ case. Australians should understand that these pamphlets have not been officially fact checked. An attempt at fact checking the two cases by The Guardian is worth reading but I Continue reading »
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Treasury’s net migration forecasts and the ‘big Australia’ furore?
In May this year, Treasury created a furore when it announced net migration in 2022-23 would be 400,000 – a level Australia has never experienced. Continue reading »
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Donald Trump Junior vs Novak Djokovic: A tale of two visas
While both Donald Trump Junior and Novak Djokovic were granted visas to enter Australia, the stark difference in how the two cases were managed highlight the difference in approaches of the Albanese and Morrison Governments to controversial visitors. Continue reading »
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Asylum seekers – Labor’s Achillies heel
While the boom in unsuccessful on-shore (ie non-boat) asylum applications started in 2015 when Peter Dutton was Home Affairs Minister, as time goes by it will be Dutton and the Murdoch press that will try to make it Labor’s Achillies heel. Continue reading »
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Can the Pacific Engagement Visa deliver positive outcomes?
Earlier this year, I wrote on the potential risks of the new Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) that will provide a lottery-based pathway to permanent residence for nationals of Pacific Islands and Timor Leste. Continue reading »
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Have we turned a corner on growth in asylum applications?
Since international borders re-opened, asylum applications at the primary stage steadily grew from a low of around 618 in February 2022 to 1,786 in March 2023. While this was well below the peak in 2017-18 of around 2,500 per month, it would have been worrying the Albanese Government given the entry of the Coalition and Continue reading »
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On borrowed time: Pezzullo proves he does not understand immigration
In his opening statement to the recent Senate Estimates hearing, Department of Home Affairs (DHA) Secretary Mike Pezzullo again proved he does not understand immigration policy or administration. Continue reading »
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Are we on track for net migration of 400,000 in 2022-23?
In the May 2023 Budget, Treasury caused a ‘big Australia’ furore by increasing its net migration forecast for 2022-23 from the 235,000 it published in the October 2022 Budget to 400,000. Continue reading »
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What should we make of the 2023-24 Migration Program planning levels?
The Government has announced the 2023-24 migration program will be set at 190,000 places – in headline terms a 5,000 place reduction on the 2022-23 migration program. Continue reading »