Writer
Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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What if Australia’s fertility rate keeps falling?
The ABS recently released births data for 2019 noting a very sharp fall in fertility to the lowest in our history. This was no surprise now that the Government had at last stopped forecasting a sharp rise in fertility. Continue reading »
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Migration in reverse in September 2020
Net international movements in September 2020 were negative 33,270, a reduction on the August 2020 outcome of negative 45,610. Continue reading »
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Why Was Immigration Compliance Activity Tanking Pre-Covid?
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and his Department Secretary Mike Pezzullo are well known for their gratuitous cruelty. But does that mean they have been effective at maintaining immigration compliance and control? Continue reading »
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Amnesty for Undocumented Workers
The ABC reports the Government is looking into an amnesty for undocumented workers to help address a shortage of farm workers. Continue reading »
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Forecast of 2020-21 Migration and Humanitarian Program
Australian governments have always cut the immigration intake in response to a recession. The 2020-21 intake will be no different. While the Government may announce a ‘ceiling’ that is not much below that for 2019-20, the actual planning level, which may well remain secret, will be well below the ceiling. Continue reading »
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Tudge’s Global Talent Task Force – Spin or Substance?
Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge on 4 September announced a ‘Global Business and Talent Attraction Taskforce’ as part of the Government’s JobMaker Plan. Sadly it seems Tudge’s announcement looks increasingly like spin over substance. Continue reading »
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Temporary Entrants Continue to ‘Go Home’ in July 2020
The Prime Minister’s call for temporary entrants to ‘go home’ continued to be effective in July 2020 with a net loss of temporary entrants of 34,830 in July 2020. Continue reading »
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Australia can’t rely on overseas migration anymore Mr. Treasurer
The Government’s July Economic Statement forecasts net overseas migration in 2020-21 will be around 31,000 – the lowest since 1975-76 and a dramatic contrast to the fanciful levels of net overseas migration forecast in the 2019 Budget. Continue reading »
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Covid Driving Down Onshore Asylum Applications
Closure of international borders has reduced the onshore asylum application rate but we still have almost 87,000 asylum seekers in Australia, the vast bulk of whom are from countries where asylum claims are not likely to be strong. Continue reading »
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Can we rely on the PM’s forecast economic boom?
Scott Morrison says Australia’s economy will have to expand by 3.75% per annum for the next five years to recover from the corona virus recession. Continue reading »
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Population ageing in Australia and Japan
Australia and Japan are demographic polar opposites. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Forecast of Net Overseas Migration for the Decade of 2020s
The Prime Minister says the coronavirus crisis will drive net overseas migration in 2020-21 down by 85% of its level for 2018-19. But what would net overseas migration average during the decade of the 2020s under current policy settings? Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Is population ageing affecting Australia’s economic performance?
A lower fertility rate and lower NOM for the foreseeable future will mean that Australia will age much more rapidly than forecast in the 2015 Intergenerational Report and in the 2019 Budget. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Global Talent Independent Visa: Permanent residence in a week or two
The new Global Talent Independent (GTI) visa provides a direct permanent residence for ‘highly skilled professionals in high growth sectors’. According to the Department of Home Affairs, processing times range between two days and two months with many being decided within a week or two. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI: Australia’s struggles with skilled temporary migration
Kristina Keneally argues that when we come out of the current crisis we should aim for a lower level of temporary migration to make sure “Australians get a fair go and a first go at jobs.” Scott Morrison says cutting skilled temporary migration would hurt the economy. Who should we believe? Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Morrison and Dutton wash their hands of the plight of overseas students?
Australia’s international education industry has boomed for 20 years. Will Morrison and Dutton continue to wash their hands of overseas students? Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI: Coronavirus and Australia’s Population and Economic Directions
The coronavirus crisis brings to an end 20 years of high migration to Australia. On current policy settings, net migration in 2020 and 2021 will be close to zero, if not negative. Australia is looking at the biggest turning point in its population history – bigger than the Great Depression. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI.Who are the missing 473,000 temporary entrants?
Minister Tudge says there were 2.17 Million temporary entrants in Australia in early April 2020. He explains that 1.697 million of these are NZ citizens, students, tourists, working holiday makers and skilled temporary entrants. But who are the remaining 473,000? Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. The plight of temporary entrants
For Sujith, Priyanga and their two children, winter is coming as it is for so many temporary residents. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. We need to keep migrants in Australia during coronavirus recession
If the government does not act to stop the coronavirus recession from forcing migrants out, then Australia will be far more economically vulnerable. Because Australia is a migrant settler nation, recessions here have special characteristics. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI.- Job-keeper allowance a gun to the heads of over 1 million temporary entrants
The job keeper allowance is a massive tourniquet for the Australian economy and society. But for over 1 million temporary entrants, the allowance is a gun to their head. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI: The Ruby Princess – how could this have happened?
The Ruby Princess, along with a number of other cruise ships that arrived in Australia around the same time, will go down in Australian history as a super spreader of disease and death. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Possible population projections in the forthcoming 2020 Intergenerational Report
Treasurer Frydenberg will shortly publish the 2020 Intergenerational Report (IGR) –Australia’s fifth such document. It’s as close as we get to a long-term plan (usually 40 years) for the Australian population and economy. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Why the Kiwis are not coming to OZ any more
For much of the last 30 years, New Zealand has been one of Australia’s top source countries for migrants. But since 2013-14 Australia seems to have lost its attraction to Kiwis. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Morrison impotent on visa arrangements for Indonesians
The Australian of 10 February 2019 reports the Morrison government is “considering” Mr Joko’s proposal for Australia to relax visa restrictions for Indonesian visitors in line with the “visa on arrival” arrangements for Australians visiting Indonesia. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. Dutton’s Trifecta of Border Protection Failures
For years now Peter Dutton has boasted of his border protection achievements. But a brief examination of the details of his boast shows that while he has excelled in gratuitous cruelty, dog-whistling and wasting taxpayer’s money, his actual border protection record is weak. He has given us the trifecta of weak borders, inhumane treatment of Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI: Does Australia have a temporary migration problem?
On 5 December 2019, the Senate established a Select Committee on Temporary Migration to “inquire into the impact temporary migration has on the Australian economy, wages and jobs, social cohesion and workplace rights and conditions”. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. The Australian again falls for Government spin on the record number of asylum seekers arriving by air.
In a front page exclusive on 28 January, Geoff Chambers and Joe Kelly of The Australian uncritically regurgitate the Government’s talking points on asylum seekers arriving by plane. Either they are just innocents with no idea how to do the job of a journalist or they see their role as purely to defend the Government. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI: Why 5% unemployment today is not the same as 5% unemployment 10-20 years ago
The unemployment rate, and even the underemployment rate, have become an inadequate measure of the true health of our labour market. Continue reading »
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ABUL RIZVI. No end in sight to growth in Dutton’s backlogs-the asylum seekers who came by air.
End December 2019 data shows the backlog of asylum applications at the primary stage, at the AAT and those who have been finally refused and have become overstayers continues to grow. Continue reading »
