Author Archives: Mark J. Valencia

Mark J. Valencia

About Mark J. Valencia

Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst focused on Asia and currently Adjunct Senior Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China

Letting US Asian allies get nukes is a bad idea

A recent article by the Cato Institute’s Doug Bandow in prominent Washington DC-based journal Foreign Policy proposes that ‘America should let its Asian allies acquire nuclear weapons’! 

Posted in World Affairs | 4 Comments

US allies may tempt fate in South China Sea

China is feeling increasingly cornered–both politically and militarily in the South China Sea. The presence of US allies’ navies and in particular the joining of US FONOPs there will exacerbate that sense of desperation and perhaps prompt a kinetic response … Continue reading

Posted in China | 65 Comments

The New ‘Neocolonialism’ in Southeast Asia

In the colonial era in Southeast Asia extending from the 15th to the late 20th century, the Western powers, (including America in the late 19th century) competed for, occupied and governed Southeast Asia. The former colonial masters continued to impose … Continue reading

Posted in World Affairs | 21 Comments

US Sanctions on China’s CNOOC Over the Top

The U.S. has sanctioned China’s third-largest oil company apparently because it has explored or drilled in an area disputed by third parties.  This precedent could have serious repercussions.

Posted in China | 4 Comments

The Biden Administration, China and Southeast Asia

With its mixture of arrogance, ignorance and browbeating, the Trump administration has left a dark cloud over US-Southeast Asian relations. But there is a silver lining. This nadir provides a low-hanging fruit of diplomatic success that the Biden administration can … Continue reading

Posted in World Affairs | 2 Comments

Pompeo’s Fruitless Final Foray in Asia

Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made his latest and probably his last trip in office to Asia. He was on a mission to persuade these countries to join it in an anti-China coalition under the cover of … Continue reading

Posted in World Affairs | 3 Comments

Indonesia Can Lead the Way for ASEAN on US and China – Just say ‘No’ to both.

The U.S. has been pressing many Southeast Asian states to join it in its efforts to politically and militarily contain China.  Indonesia – the de facto leader of ASEAN – can show the way for ASEAN members by just saying “no” … Continue reading

Posted in Asia, China | 1 Comment

Do US Intelligence Probes Against China Violate the ‘International Order’ ?

The U.S. stands accused of violating that ‘international order’ by flying military spy planes under civilian “false flags” of other countries while collecting intelligence on China’s defenses. The U.S. may not only be violating international norms but also undermining confidence that it … Continue reading

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The South China Sea: Grasping at Straws and Whistling Past the Graveyard 

As their struggle for dominance in the region heats up, China and the U.S. are cranking up pressure on Southeast Asian countries to choose between them.    As they become ever more desperate, officials and pundits are now ‘grasping at … Continue reading

Posted in Asia, World Affairs | 3 Comments

Who is the Rogue State in the South China Sea?

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called China a rogue state. Among its alleged international sins are its policy and actions in the South China Sea.   But if China is a “rogue” state actor in the South China Sea, it is … Continue reading

Posted in World Affairs | 3 Comments

Scenarios for the South China Sea :The good, the bad and the downright ugly

With ever more tit-for-tat belligerent rhetoric and military posturing, China and the US seem to be slouching towards a showdown in the South China Sea. What might come next can be captured in three scenarios – good, ugly and bad.

Posted in China | 1 Comment

US hard line on South China Sea could cause a clash

On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a confrontational policy statement on the South China Sea. The US followed up the statement with an across the board full court press of public relations, diplomacy and muscle flexing … Continue reading

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Why the US policy initiative in the South China Sea is likely to fail

On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a ‘new’ policy on the South China Sea, declaring that “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources­. ­The world will … Continue reading

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The US hypocrisy on the South China Sea and Diego Garcia

The U.S. has publicly accused China of violating the existing international order, bullying other claimants, and crimes against the environment in the South China Sea. China may well be guilty—at least from the US perspective. But the same and more … Continue reading

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It is Orwellian to say that America has preserved the peace in Asia.

On 14 July, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, David Stilwell, gave a speech elaborating on US China policy in the South China Sea, and further increased tensions with China there.

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The US South China Sea Policy Statement: Little New and Laced With Hypocrisy

On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a policy statement on the South China Sea. Although it was anticipated to be ‘new’, it added little to the US position and was laced with hypocrisy.

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Reaction to China’s military exercises hypocritical (Asia Times 7.7.20)

While badmouthing Beijing, its critics often ignore their own destabilizing activities in the South China Sea.

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The South China Sea. Who is the real threat to peace and stability?

The US led-cacophony of criticism of China for its actions in the South China Sea is reaching a dangerous level.  The situation is far more complicated than the U.S. would have it and there is plenty of blame to go … Continue reading

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A China Air Defence Identification Zone in the South China Sea – Is the Sky About to Fall?

In 2013, when China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, alarmists warned that China would soon declare one for the South China Sea.  But the sky did not fall in the East China Sea … Continue reading

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MARK J VALENCIA. The US refuses to see China as a military equal.

A recent US Council on Foreign Relations Report advising the US government how it should deal with China in the South China Sea is derivative, defective, dewy eyed and dangerous. It is particularly worrying because the author is a China … Continue reading

Posted in Defence and Security, World Affairs | 7 Comments

MARK J VALENCIA. To Reduce Tensions in the South China Sea, the Ball is in America’s Court

The solution to the South China Sea imbroglio lies with the US, not China.

Posted in Asia, World Affairs | 5 Comments

MARK J. VALENCIA. COVID -19 Crisis Cloaks Dangerous US-Iran Incidents That Raise Critical Questions

While the world has been distracted by the COVID 19 pandemic, dangerous US-Iran incidents in the Gulf have proliferated and could lead to another military clash, or even war.

Posted in World Affairs | 2 Comments