Writer
Mark J Valencia
Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst focused on Asia and currently Adjunct Senior Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, Sanya , China.
-
US partly to blame for Taiwan Strait incident
A major purpose of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China was, in his words, to reestablish communications to reduce “ misunderstandings and miscommunications” to prevent or manage incidents between the two militaries. The 3 June near collision of China and US warships in the Taiwan Strait is a prime example. Continue reading »
-
Is a Gulf of Tonkin-type incident brewing in the South China Sea?
The situation in the South China Sea is on the verge of becoming a game of chicken between the U.S. and China with the Philippines in the middle. This would be very dangerous and could cause China to miscalculate. Either one blinks or they clash. Continue reading »
-
The South China Sea: countries in glass houses should not throw stones
The Philippines publicly announced that it is deploying navigational buoys near some of the rocks it claims and occupies in the South China Sea. It says the buoys signify “the country’s sovereign rights and jurisdiction over our EEZ” and has warned of “serious repercussions” if China removes them. This was just its latest provocative and Continue reading »
-
A worst case scenario for the South China Sea
The increasing militarisation of the South China Sea disputes sets the stage for the worst case scenario—frequent and widespread conflict that eventually results in a military confrontation between China and the US. To avoid this scenario, the reality is that China, its rival claimants and the U.S. have to compromise. Continue reading »
-
The negative consequences of the Philippines’ choice of the US over China
The Philippines has clearly chosen the U.S. over China in their struggle for regional hegemony. The Marcos Jnr administration says that it is in its national interest to do so. But there will be significant negative consequences as well. Continue reading »
-
US Asia Policy seems to be in disarray
The China-bashing broadside delivered by US Vice President Kamala Harris at the end of September in Japan raises questions of who is in charge of China and Asia policy and what it is. Continue reading »
-
The US diplomatic blitz regarding the South China Sea
The US is engaged in a public relations blitz to win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asia and demonise China. However it is replete with deceit and hypocrisy. Continue reading »
-
What should the US do vis-à-vis China in the South China Sea?
To provide a deterrent to China’s domination of the South China Sea, the U.S. needs to place its warships, planes and missiles in the region, possibly in the Philippines. However, any scenario that doesn’t involve US accommodation of China’s interests, and China’s accommodation of its neighbours’ interests, won’t end well. Continue reading »
-
Why is Australia conducting provocative intelligence flights and activities off the China coast in support of the US?
How would Australia react if Chinese ISR (Intelligence ,Surveillance,Reconnaissance) planes were similarly operating off its coast probing its defences and dropping sonobuoys to detect its submarines? Continue reading »
-
Who is provoking whom in the South China Sea?
The frequency and intensity of dangerous incidents between US and China militaries are increasing in the South China Sea and second-in-line to the US Presidency Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan doesn’t help ease the situation. But the U.S needs to pause and examine just who is provoking who and its contributions to the tension there. Continue reading »
-
Hope for a better Australian policy toward Southeast Asia?
America has been trying to use Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN in its contest with China for regional dominance and Australia has long followed America’s lead. But now there is a glimmer of hope that at least the Australian approach towards Southeast Asia may change for the better. Continue reading »
-
Australia is dancing with the devil’s in the South China Sea
Is Australia sleepwalking into a conflict with China in the South China Sea? Canberra echoes Washington’s arguments about freedom of navigation and mimics US surveillance activities in the South China Sea, while claiming it acts in its own interests. Yet it must ask itself: how does provoking a possible military conflict serve the country or Continue reading »
-
China, the U.S. and the South China Sea – what could go wrong?
The U.S. and China continue their standoff in the South China Sea. Although they are struggling to set a ‘floor’ and guardrails for their military interactions, there is much that could go wrong. Continue reading »
-
The U.S. – China dispute over the Taiwan Strait’s legal regime
In the most recent flap over the legal regime governing passage of warships through the Taiwan Strait, both China and the U.S. are partially right –and partially wrong. Continue reading »
-
Is the Quad’s maritime domain awareness initiative a trojan horse for the US military?
The Quad has launched the Indo-Pacific Partnership on Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). While hailed by its backers as a step forward in practical Quad cooperation, it could be a Trojan horse for the US military. Continue reading »
-
Quad Hypocrisy on the Law of the Sea
The Quad’s statements regarding upholding the “international order” are hugely hypocritical when it come to the Law of the Sea. Continue reading »
-
Close encounter of China-Australia military aircraft raises questions
A close encounter between Australian and Chinese military aircraft over the South China Sea has resulted in mutual accusations of provocative and dangerous behaviour and raised many questions. Here is what we know –and what we need to know before drawing conclusions. Continue reading »
-
Will Ukraine break the back of the beleaguered US Indo-Pacific strategy?
Implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy is already facing significant obstacles. Now divisions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are further undermining US diplomatic efforts. Continue reading »
-
The ASEAN-US summit: rhetoric versus reality
When the US-ASEAN Summit was first announced, there were great expectations on both sides. However fond hopes foundered on the rocks of reality. Continue reading »
-
US-CHINA compromise in the South China Sea could be the basis of a larger strategic framework
China has already proposed “a new model of great power relations” implying equality and shared responsibility in world affairs. To avoid military conflict, the U.S. must accommodate to some extent China’s legitimate interests and aspirations by sharing power—when, on what issues, how, and how much are to be negotiated. Continue reading »
-
Supposed lessons of the Ukraine tragedy for the Indo-Pacific
The tragedy of Ukraine has elicited a plethora of opinion pieces purporting to divine lessons learned for the Indo-Pacific. Some of them make sense. But many others reflect fuzzy, biased and wishful thinking. Continue reading »
-
Who is militarizing the south China sea?
There is an ongoing debate between the U.S. and China as to who is militarizing the South China Sea. Who is right is not clear and they both have their arguments. Continue reading »
-
ASEAN/US summit postponement raises serious questions for ASEAN about relations with US and China
ASEAN and its members want to be courted on their own merits and not as part of a scheme targeting China. Continue reading »
-
China-Australia laser incident raises many questions
The belligerent statements by Scott Morrison and other seem blown out of proportion for political reasons and may have been motivated by the upcoming elections. Continue reading »
-
US Indo-Pacific Strategy is built on false assumptions about ASEAN
The agenda of the new US Indo-Pacific Strategy for Southeast Asia is based on false assumptions and ignores fundamental differences between them and the U.S. Continue reading »
-
Dutton’s posturing can only lead to military confrontation with China
As the US draws its allies in an encirclement campaign against China, Australia’s Defence Minister is adding fuel to the fire. Continue reading »
-
Sea of hypocrisy around US freedom of navigation operations
These US operations in the South China Sea may violate international law, increase the risk of confrontation and are politically motivated. Continue reading »
-
An uneasy rules-based order: China’s restraint in South China Sea has limits
The implementation of AUKUS and increased US intelligence probes threaten China’s nuclear submarines that are its deterrent against a strike by the US. Continue reading »
-
In too deep? US credibility at risk in South China Sea
Washington insists it will defend the “rules-based order” in the face of China’s increasing belligerence, but it may be raising expectations too high. Continue reading »
-
China’s belligerence in the South China Sea is backfiring
Its illegal actions and attempts at intimidation are fostering resentment among South-East Asian nations — and playing into the hands of the US. Continue reading »
