Writer
Mark J Valencia
Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst focused on Asia and currently Adjunct Senior Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China
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US-CHINA compromise in the South China Sea could be the basis of a larger strategic framework
China has already proposed “a new model of great power relations” implying equality and shared responsibility in world affairs. To avoid military conflict, the U.S. must accommodate to some extent China’s legitimate interests and aspirations by sharing power—when, on what issues, how, and how much are to be negotiated. Continue reading »
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Supposed lessons of the Ukraine tragedy for the Indo-Pacific
The tragedy of Ukraine has elicited a plethora of opinion pieces purporting to divine lessons learned for the Indo-Pacific. Some of them make sense. But many others reflect fuzzy, biased and wishful thinking. Continue reading »
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Who is militarizing the south China sea?
There is an ongoing debate between the U.S. and China as to who is militarizing the South China Sea. Who is right is not clear and they both have their arguments. Continue reading »
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ASEAN/US summit postponement raises serious questions for ASEAN about relations with US and China
ASEAN and its members want to be courted on their own merits and not as part of a scheme targeting China. Continue reading »
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China-Australia laser incident raises many questions
The belligerent statements by Scott Morrison and other seem blown out of proportion for political reasons and may have been motivated by the upcoming elections. Continue reading »
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US Indo-Pacific Strategy is built on false assumptions about ASEAN
The agenda of the new US Indo-Pacific Strategy for Southeast Asia is based on false assumptions and ignores fundamental differences between them and the U.S. Continue reading »
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Dutton’s posturing can only lead to military confrontation with China
As the US draws its allies in an encirclement campaign against China, Australia’s Defence Minister is adding fuel to the fire. Continue reading »
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Sea of hypocrisy around US freedom of navigation operations
These US operations in the South China Sea may violate international law, increase the risk of confrontation and are politically motivated. Continue reading »
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An uneasy rules-based order: China’s restraint in South China Sea has limits
The implementation of AUKUS and increased US intelligence probes threaten China’s nuclear submarines that are its deterrent against a strike by the US. Continue reading »
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In too deep? US credibility at risk in South China Sea
Washington insists it will defend the “rules-based order” in the face of China’s increasing belligerence, but it may be raising expectations too high. Continue reading »
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China’s belligerence in the South China Sea is backfiring
Its illegal actions and attempts at intimidation are fostering resentment among South-East Asian nations — and playing into the hands of the US. Continue reading »
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Yesterday President Xi Jinping discussed South China Sea with ASEAN leaders
Will the South China Sea Code of Conduct herald a new order? China will present a united front with ASEAN countries. The US may have other ideas. Continue reading »
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Nuclear submarine operations in South China Sea endanger coastal countries
The accident involving a US nuclear-powered submarine in the South China Sea brings into scrutiny the ramifications of such an accident. The release of nuclear radiation could damage the food supply of many nations. Continue reading »
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China might react to the Quad and AUKUS with tried and true patience
With the Quad and AUKUS, the US and its allies — especially Australia — are clearly challenging China militarily. All eyes are now on China to see how it will react. It has many options. Continue reading »
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AUKUS ruffles Australia-France-South-East Asia relations
In one of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s first foreign policy speeches, he boldy asserted that regarding the struggle between the US and China for regional dominance, “Australia doesn’t have to choose”. Continue reading »
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Japan is tempting fate by joining the US-led anti-China coalition
War between China and the US is not inevitable. But it is becoming increasingly likely – and Japan’s actions could be the trigger. Japan and its US backers should not tempt fate. Continue reading »
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China’s sanctions on Western think tanks
China’s sanctions on the prominent Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has prompted a great wailing and wringing of hands. While I empathize with those affected, I do take issue with some of their specific concerns. Continue reading »
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China Needs to Show More Restraint in the Region
China’s aggressiveness in the region is provoking a US-led backlash that could contain or constrain it. To achieve what it considers its rightful destiny, China needs to exercise more restraint. Slow and steady will win the race. Continue reading »
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Biden trumps Trump’s truculent China Seas policy
Many had hoped that under new US President Joe Biden, the U.S. would moderate its goals and behaviour vis a vis China, especially where they militarily confront each other in the China Seas. But U.S. China policy has so far not only continued that of former President Donald Trump but even trumped its hypocrisy, condescension, confrontation Continue reading »
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To achieve its goals china needs to show more restraint in the region
The much-anticipated meeting between top US and China foreign policy officials has come and gone with only the great gaps between the two to show for it. Despite growing US angst and opposition, China is proceeding apace toward its goal of regional and eventual world dominance. Continue reading »
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Why wouldn’t Vietnam want US warships in their waters?
The myth that Vietnam supports a “free and open Indo-Pacific” is based on the false perception of Vietnam as the US’s deputy in South-East Asia. It is time we recognise Vietnam’s autonomy, and respect that they are just as pragmatic as the US or China. Continue reading »
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A better Biden approach in the South China Sea
President Joe Biden’s Defense Department has created a taskforce to review US military relations with China and recommend any necessary changes. But what needs to be changed? Continue reading »
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Diplomatic finesse in the offing? Possible modifications of Freedom of Navigation Operations under Biden
For years the US has purposely conceptually conflated freedom of navigation for commercial vessels with its claimed freedom for its military assets to threaten and probe weaknesses in its opponents’ defences including those of China. Continue reading »
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Biden China team puts militarist cart before the diplomatic horse
By doubling down on Trump’s ‘in your face’ pursuit of military domination, the Biden China team seems to be proffering more of the same to the region — instability and a drift toward confrontation and conflict. Continue reading »
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Forked tongues: US duplicity on China revealed
For years, American officials have claimed the US wants China “to succeed and prosper”. A declassified document reveals that on the contrary, US policy was to “implement a defence strategy capable of … denying China sustained air and sea dominance”. Continue reading »
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Letting US Asian allies get nukes is a bad idea
A recent article by the Cato Institute’s Doug Bandow in prominent Washington DC-based journal Foreign Policy proposes that ‘America should let its Asian allies acquire nuclear weapons’! Continue reading »
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US allies may tempt fate in South China Sea
China is feeling increasingly cornered–both politically and militarily in the South China Sea. The presence of US allies’ navies and in particular the joining of US FONOPs there will exacerbate that sense of desperation and perhaps prompt a kinetic response from China. They need to weigh carefully the consequences of tempting fate in the South Continue reading »
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The New ‘Neocolonialism’ in Southeast Asia
In the colonial era in Southeast Asia extending from the 15th to the late 20th century, the Western powers, (including America in the late 19th century) competed for, occupied and governed Southeast Asia. The former colonial masters continued to impose economic, political, cultural and other pressures to control or influence their former colonies. Now, just Continue reading »
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US Sanctions on China’s CNOOC Over the Top
The U.S. has sanctioned China’s third-largest oil company apparently because it has explored or drilled in an area disputed by third parties. This precedent could have serious repercussions. Continue reading »
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The Biden Administration, China and Southeast Asia
With its mixture of arrogance, ignorance and browbeating, the Trump administration has left a dark cloud over US-Southeast Asian relations. But there is a silver lining. This nadir provides a low-hanging fruit of diplomatic success that the Biden administration can easily and quickly pick. Continue reading »
