Writer
Mark J Valencia
Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst focused on Asia and currently Adjunct Senior Scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China
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Nuclear submarine operations in South China Sea endanger coastal countries
The accident involving a US nuclear-powered submarine in the South China Sea brings into scrutiny the ramifications of such an accident. The release of nuclear radiation could damage the food supply of many nations. Continue reading »
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China might react to the Quad and AUKUS with tried and true patience
With the Quad and AUKUS, the US and its allies — especially Australia — are clearly challenging China militarily. All eyes are now on China to see how it will react. It has many options. Continue reading »
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AUKUS ruffles Australia-France-South-East Asia relations
In one of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s first foreign policy speeches, he boldy asserted that regarding the struggle between the US and China for regional dominance, “Australia doesn’t have to choose”. Continue reading »
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Japan is tempting fate by joining the US-led anti-China coalition
War between China and the US is not inevitable. But it is becoming increasingly likely – and Japan’s actions could be the trigger. Japan and its US backers should not tempt fate. Continue reading »
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China’s sanctions on Western think tanks
China’s sanctions on the prominent Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has prompted a great wailing and wringing of hands. While I empathize with those affected, I do take issue with some of their specific concerns. Continue reading »
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China Needs to Show More Restraint in the Region
China’s aggressiveness in the region is provoking a US-led backlash that could contain or constrain it. To achieve what it considers its rightful destiny, China needs to exercise more restraint. Slow and steady will win the race. Continue reading »
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Biden trumps Trump’s truculent China Seas policy
Many had hoped that under new US President Joe Biden, the U.S. would moderate its goals and behaviour vis a vis China, especially where they militarily confront each other in the China Seas. But U.S. China policy has so far not only continued that of former President Donald Trump but even trumped its hypocrisy, condescension, confrontation Continue reading »
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To achieve its goals china needs to show more restraint in the region
The much-anticipated meeting between top US and China foreign policy officials has come and gone with only the great gaps between the two to show for it. Despite growing US angst and opposition, China is proceeding apace toward its goal of regional and eventual world dominance. Continue reading »
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Why wouldn’t Vietnam want US warships in their waters?
The myth that Vietnam supports a “free and open Indo-Pacific” is based on the false perception of Vietnam as the US’s deputy in South-East Asia. It is time we recognise Vietnam’s autonomy, and respect that they are just as pragmatic as the US or China. Continue reading »
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A better Biden approach in the South China Sea
President Joe Biden’s Defense Department has created a taskforce to review US military relations with China and recommend any necessary changes. But what needs to be changed? Continue reading »
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Diplomatic finesse in the offing? Possible modifications of Freedom of Navigation Operations under Biden
For years the US has purposely conceptually conflated freedom of navigation for commercial vessels with its claimed freedom for its military assets to threaten and probe weaknesses in its opponents’ defences including those of China. Continue reading »
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Biden China team puts militarist cart before the diplomatic horse
By doubling down on Trump’s ‘in your face’ pursuit of military domination, the Biden China team seems to be proffering more of the same to the region — instability and a drift toward confrontation and conflict. Continue reading »
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Forked tongues: US duplicity on China revealed
For years, American officials have claimed the US wants China “to succeed and prosper”. A declassified document reveals that on the contrary, US policy was to “implement a defence strategy capable of … denying China sustained air and sea dominance”. Continue reading »
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Letting US Asian allies get nukes is a bad idea
A recent article by the Cato Institute’s Doug Bandow in prominent Washington DC-based journal Foreign Policy proposes that ‘America should let its Asian allies acquire nuclear weapons’! Continue reading »
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US allies may tempt fate in South China Sea
China is feeling increasingly cornered–both politically and militarily in the South China Sea. The presence of US allies’ navies and in particular the joining of US FONOPs there will exacerbate that sense of desperation and perhaps prompt a kinetic response from China. They need to weigh carefully the consequences of tempting fate in the South Continue reading »
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The New ‘Neocolonialism’ in Southeast Asia
In the colonial era in Southeast Asia extending from the 15th to the late 20th century, the Western powers, (including America in the late 19th century) competed for, occupied and governed Southeast Asia. The former colonial masters continued to impose economic, political, cultural and other pressures to control or influence their former colonies. Now, just Continue reading »
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US Sanctions on China’s CNOOC Over the Top
The U.S. has sanctioned China’s third-largest oil company apparently because it has explored or drilled in an area disputed by third parties. This precedent could have serious repercussions. Continue reading »
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The Biden Administration, China and Southeast Asia
With its mixture of arrogance, ignorance and browbeating, the Trump administration has left a dark cloud over US-Southeast Asian relations. But there is a silver lining. This nadir provides a low-hanging fruit of diplomatic success that the Biden administration can easily and quickly pick. Continue reading »
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Pompeo’s Fruitless Final Foray in Asia
Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made his latest and probably his last trip in office to Asia. He was on a mission to persuade these countries to join it in an anti-China coalition under the cover of the US concept of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) .The trip appears to have Continue reading »
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Indonesia Can Lead the Way for ASEAN on US and China – Just say ‘No’ to both.
The U.S. has been pressing many Southeast Asian states to join it in its efforts to politically and militarily contain China. Indonesia – the de facto leader of ASEAN – can show the way for ASEAN members by just saying “no” to requests and actions from both the U.S. and China that it judges are contrary Continue reading »
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Do US Intelligence Probes Against China Violate the ‘International Order’ ?
The U.S. stands accused of violating that ‘international order’ by flying military spy planes under civilian “false flags” of other countries while collecting intelligence on China’s defenses. The U.S. may not only be violating international norms but also undermining confidence that it will abide by any agreements it enters. Continue reading »
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The South China Sea: Grasping at Straws and Whistling Past the Graveyard
As their struggle for dominance in the region heats up, China and the U.S. are cranking up pressure on Southeast Asian countries to choose between them. As they become ever more desperate, officials and pundits are now ‘grasping at straws’ and ‘whistling past the graveyard’ in response to the rapidly deteriorating political situation in Continue reading »
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Who is the Rogue State in the South China Sea?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called China a rogue state. Among its alleged international sins are its policy and actions in the South China Sea. But if China is a “rogue” state actor in the South China Sea, it is not the only one. Indeed, the U.S. has also engaged in rampant violations of the Continue reading »
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Scenarios for the South China Sea :The good, the bad and the downright ugly
With ever more tit-for-tat belligerent rhetoric and military posturing, China and the US seem to be slouching towards a showdown in the South China Sea. What might come next can be captured in three scenarios – good, ugly and bad. Continue reading »
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US hard line on South China Sea could cause a clash
On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a confrontational policy statement on the South China Sea. The US followed up the statement with an across the board full court press of public relations, diplomacy and muscle flexing targeting China’s policy and actions in the South China Sea. Continue reading »
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Why the US policy initiative in the South China Sea is likely to fail
On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a ‘new’ policy on the South China Sea, declaring that “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources. The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.” Continue reading »
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The US hypocrisy on the South China Sea and Diego Garcia
The U.S. has publicly accused China of violating the existing international order, bullying other claimants, and crimes against the environment in the South China Sea. China may well be guilty—at least from the US perspective. But the same and more can be said of U.S. behaviour regarding disputed Diego Garcia in the southern Indian Ocean. Continue reading »
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It is Orwellian to say that America has preserved the peace in Asia.
On 14 July, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, David Stilwell, gave a speech elaborating on US China policy in the South China Sea, and further increased tensions with China there. Continue reading »
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The US South China Sea Policy Statement: Little New and Laced With Hypocrisy
On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a policy statement on the South China Sea. Although it was anticipated to be ‘new’, it added little to the US position and was laced with hypocrisy. Continue reading »
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Reaction to China’s military exercises hypocritical (Asia Times 7.7.20)
While badmouthing Beijing, its critics often ignore their own destabilizing activities in the South China Sea. Continue reading »
