Writer
Cavan Hogue
Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.
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A failed coup but what now?
The only possible winner is Ukraine. Both Putin and Prigozhin are losers. The situation remains unclear and what happens next remains to be seen. Rationality does not seem to be part of events. Continue reading »
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Submarine sovereignty? The devil is in the detail…
Our Defence Minister said that Australia has not given any guarantees to the USA about what we would do with our submarines in the case of war but would take our own decisions at the time. This is welcome but what are the implications? Does it only apply to the submarines? As always, the devil Continue reading »
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Albanese must state clearly what he means by sovereignty
Our prime minister declares firmly that Australian sovereignty will be maintained in the new defence arrangements. He must be asked to state clearly and publicly that should the USA go to war with China Australia will not necessarily follow but could remain neutral. If this is not the case, we do not have sovereignty. Continue reading »
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Xi is no longer Dr Fu Manchu?
After the meeting between Xi and Albanese, we will need patient diplomacy well away from the megaphone and from vested interests in defence industries. China is here to stay and love it or hate it we must learn to live with it. The present government is looking more like it understands this. Continue reading »
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Russia’s illegal attack on Ukraine breaches the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
However insensitive and provocative NATO members may or may not have been and whatever weasel words Putin dredges up to justify his invasion of Ukraine, there can be no doubt that Russia is in breach of an undertaking it took not to use force against Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Continue reading »
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The Defence Strategic Review and the received wisdom about the China threat and US support
We cannot assume that other countries will do anything but put their own interests before those of others and we must do the same. Continue reading »
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Power, rules and camp followers
Prime Minister Albanese’s understanding of the outside world does not match his undoubted ability domestically…The contest between China and the USA is not about values but about power. Continue reading »
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If I were Foreign Minister in the new government
Australia has always been a follower in foreign and defence policy. When the British Lion lost its teeth we turned to the American Eagle which is currently losing its feathers. Continue reading »
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Tsar Vladimir’s scorecard – off to a bad start
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not working out as he expected and may yet turn against him internationally and even domestically. At this stage, we can only speculate but things are not going well for Tsar Vladimir. Continue reading »
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Tsar Putin on the warpath
There are no simple explanations for the causes of Putin’s invasion and what will happen. Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue: Ukraine is not just about goodies and baddies
Russians believe they were promised that NATO would not move east as a quid pro quo for accepting German unification. Continue reading »
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What lies behind our slogans and lecturing of other countries?
It’s not enough to preach ‘Western values’. Australia should instead try to understand those who don’t agree with us. Continue reading »
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The deputy sheriff rides again with AUKUS
The AUKUS deal will cost us a lot of money, a substantial loss of sovereignty, a lowering of our reputation in the world and the potential to get dragged into a war we should avoid. But we will get our tummy tickled by our great white fathers. Continue reading »
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Cavan Hogue: Chile coup was another example of Australian support for US interests
National Archives documents released last week revealed how closely Australia’s overseas spy agency worked with the CIA in the lead-up to the 1973 coup in Chile. Former diplomat Cavan Hogue reflects on the political and social environment at the time. Continue reading »
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White Man’s Media: it’s the white person’s media
The media thunders forth from its citadel of truth against the infidels. Those chosen to comment on things Chinese are seldom people who have worked in China but hawks who spout the conservative line Continue reading »
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The harmful myths we live by about the US.
Defence Minister Dutton has upped the ante in some interesting comments on China and Afghanistan. He reinforces some myths we accept and states unequivocally our dependence on the US to protect us from evil for Thou art with us, Thy nukes and Thy military they comfort us. Continue reading »
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What actually is the G7? Is it a Western Club?
Climate change was a major theme and Australia was the shag on this rock. Morrison trotted out his usual line about doing what was in Australian interests which will not impress anyone outside of the naysayers back home. Continue reading »
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Is the US a reliable ally?
Australia has put almost all its defence eggs in the American basket at the cost of further weakening relations with China. We are betting that in our hour of need, the US will come to our aid. But will it? It is worth looking at the American record of supporting its allies of one kind Continue reading »
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What do we really celebrate on Australia Day?
Spare a thought for Australian representatives abroad who face awkward questions about what we celebrate on our National Day. It just goes to highlight the confusion and hypocrisy about pretending it was a noble venture by heroic and benign colonisers. Continue reading »
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Empires come and go. Has the decline of the American empire begun?
Recent events have highlighted weaknesses in American society. There is much uncertainty about the future of the struggling empire but a look at other empires in history may shed some light on the matter. Continue reading »
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Multicultural Australia?
Just what do we mean by “multicultural”? Who is part of multicultural Australia and who is not? Continue reading »
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The elephant and the mouse
China is much more powerful than Australia and no amount of criticism from us will change this. In a fight with China, we must lose. Calm analysis must replace jingoistic hot air. Why are they really attacking us and what can we do about it now? Continue reading »
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Can we get out of Afghanistan?
The revelation of war crimes by Australian soldiers has brought our focus on to Afghanistan, why we are there and why the special forces did what some of them did there. If the US pulls out so will we but, if not, we face difficult choices. We must wait and see what President Biden will Continue reading »
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Foreign Minister’s Tokyo claims Australia’s contribution to disinformation?
Australia’s Foreign Minister has announced she will travel to Tokyo to meet with other members of the Quad (the US, Japan and India) to jointly counter disinformation campaigns by authoritarian states and to ensure supplies of minerals and technology. Does this mean it is only authoritarian states that are not allowed to engage in disinformation? Continue reading »
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The Philippine War, the American saviour syndrome and the manifest destiny. (REPOSTED from February 9, 2018)
The American war against the Philippine Republic which began in 1898 and its subsequent colonisation of the Philippines teaches us many things about perennial American beliefs and actions. The concept that the US is saving somebody from something is a constant in American foreign policy. Continue reading »
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Where do we go from here after Trump?
The visit to Washington of the two Australian ministers is mildly encouraging but some important questions remain. Why did they go and why did they say what they said? What next? And in the longer term what degree of control will Australia have over the world we inhabit? Continue reading »
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Emperor Trumpus Maximus and his most loyal vassal, Terra Australis
Let us never forget that Emperor Trumpus Maximus is divine and so demands obedience from all of you as well as from our vassal states. Continue reading »
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Double standards are a feature of Australian foreign policy. We condemn China for doing what we and other countries do.
Australia should not assume that democracy is the one true political faith that everyone in the world wants. We have the right to uphold our beliefs but others have the same right. Continue reading »
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Cyber hacks, media hacks and political hacks.
Greatly increased defence spending plus proposed cyber capability tie us more to the USA and clearly will be seen by China as unfriendly. Can we rely on a dysfunctional USA and do we really understand Chinese motives and the level of threat from it? Continue reading »
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CAVAN HOGUE. How should Morrison respond to Trump’s invitation?
President Trump wants to invite Australia to attend the forthcoming G7 meeting as a guest along with Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. Mr Morrison has said he will consider a reply. Continue reading »
